The Dallas Mavericks aren’t a team that likes to rebuild conventionally. Despite heavy roster turnover on a yearly basis, Dallas almost always finds a way to get back in the playoff picture. And despite a tumultuous offseason, the Mavericks are on track to make another visit to the Western Conference Playoffs. However, a recent slump has put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.
In the 2010-11 season, the Dallas Mavericks, led by German forward Dirk Nowitzki, won the NBA Finals. Since that season, Dallas has made the playoffs three out of four seasons, and lost in the first round all three times. Over that span, owner Mark Cuban and the front office haven’t been afraid to mix things up, with 69 different players putting on a Mavericks jersey from 2010-2016.
Dallas hasn’t been able to establish a long-term core since their Finals win, and some might argue losing in the first round of the playoffs isn’t a position a team should want to be in, but Cuban has been adamant that Dallas will continue to put the best product they can on the floor, so long as Dirk Nowitzki is still around.
And Nowitzki has been more than just around this season, continuing to defy his 37 years of age. Dirk continues to get it done on the offensive end, shooting a 45/38/89 split, and averaging a casual 18 points and 6.6 rebounds in 31 minutes per game. It certainly isn’t easy to go into rebuild mode when you have one of the best players of a generation on his last legs who’s obviously not very interested in playing on a non-competitive team. The pressure is constantly on the Dallas front office to put out a winner, and that has made the offseason a tumultuous time for Mavericks fans. This offseason in particular had plenty of twists and turns to it, most notably the near acquisition of Clippers center DeAndre Jordan in free agency.
Jordan was one of the biggest names in free agency, and he shocked a lot of people when he agreed in principle to sign with the Dallas Mavericks. After striking out on plenty of big names the last few seasons, Dallas finally was able to bring a big time talent to the team, and a player that would be a great fit next to Nowitzki.
But a contract isn’t official until the ink dries on paper, and the Clippers’ players and coach Doc Rivers put on a full court press for Jordan, eventually convincing him to instead re-sign in Los Angeles. The Mavericks were reeling, especially after a gaping hole was formed at the center position since Tyson Chandler was already signed by Phoenix.
To address the center position, Dallas traded a future second-round pick to Milwaukee in exchange for veteran Zaza Pachulia. They filled out the rotation by signing the often-berated Javale McGee. Addressing the other needs of the team, Dallas signed shooting guard Wesley Matthews to a long-term deal despite an Achilles tear the previous season. They also took a chance on Deron Williams, signing him after he agreed to a buyout with Brooklyn. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best in the business at veteran reclamation projects, and Williams was the perfect candidate.
The Mavericks managed to put a team together, but the lottery seemed to be the destination for a team lacking firepower from anyone not named Dirk and with defensive question marks all over the place.
Dallas chose not to listen to the critics, instead coming out and entrenching themselves in the Western Conference playoff race, peaking at six games above .500 at the end of January, good for fifth in the Conference.
Nowitzki’s continued brilliance is the driving reason behind the Mavericks’ success, but despite concerns he would start to decline as he got older, his success was mostly expected.
However, a lot of the other players have been pleasant surprises, proving critical to Dallas’ success this season.
Zaza Pachulia was a rotation player in Milwaukee, but his impact with the Bucks and the Mavericks shows he is much more than that. Milwaukee’s defense was one of the best last season, and then came crashing down this year. Pachulia is one of the smartest team defenders in the league, and makes up for his lack of athleticism with an incredible positional awareness. He is also averaging over 10 rebounds a game, and does a great job of cleaning up the defensive boards, where his DRB% is 26.6 percent. Pachulia will never be flashy, and will largely go unnoticed, but his impact on a team goes well beyond the numbers, and his arrival has been huge for shoring up some of Dallas’ liabilities.
The Deron Williams Project has also gone well for the Mavericks, especially compared to the Rajon Rondo Project of last year. Averaging nearly 14 points and 5.5 assists on the season, Williams has done a much better job of controlling the Dallas offense than previous PG starters such as Raymond Felton, JJ Barea, and Devin Harris. He still isn’t back to his peak shooting rates, but Williams has bounced back from his worst shooting season of his career after hitting only 38 percent of his shots in Brooklyn last year. Williams hasn’t shown any signs of returning to top form, but as a low-risk offseason investment, he has more than paid off for Dallas.
The improvement on the wings has also been noticeable in Dallas. Chandler Parsons’ scoring is down slightly this season, but he is fitting in better than ever as a complementary piece. Parsons is shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and 41 percent from three despite shooting over four threes per game. His production is also supplemented by Wesley Matthews, the Mavericks’ riskiest offseason investment since he was coming off a bad Achilles tendon tear. But Matthews somehow came back earlier than expected, and has led the team in minutes this season. His production has tailed off compared to his career season last year in Portland, but he has been a strong defender and a net positive when on the floor.
On January 21st, the Mavericks were 28-22. Since that date, Dallas has gone 5-11, falling to 33-33 and barely hanging on to the eighth seed in the Western Conference. They have a 2.5 game lead over ninth-seeded Utah, but it is hard for Dallas to feel good about their situation.
So what went wrong? First of all, Dallas is 9-21 against opponents above .500. That is, naturally, very telling. While the starters have performed well for the most part, there is an apparent lack of depth in their ranks, a problem that is exploited by better teams. The starters, besides Nowitzki, still don’t add enough firepower to really make a lasting impression when it comes to the biggest games. Matthews, while a hard worker and strong on defense, has completely fallen off the grid when it comes to shooting. The career 44 percent shooter is shooting only 38.5 percent this year, and 34.7 percent from three.
It’s hard to say Dallas isn’t trending down right now, but they are by no means done. Despite falling to eighth, the Mavericks are only a game behind Portland for sixth.
This year’s edition of the Mavericks retooling on the fly has gotten them back where they wanted: the Playoffs. But now the questions remains, can they stay there?
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