The Bucks took a step back this season, but their young core is brimming with potential and their path towards contention is beginning to become clear.
The concept of a “saved game” is a newer one for video games. Growing up, I would play Super Mario on the original Nintendo Gameboy. Level after level of mushrooms, levitating platforms, and goons galore. If you lost all three of your lives, or turned off the Gameboy, it was back to the start! No checkpoints, no progress, no shortcuts.
I remember the first time I reached the final level. There was a boss who would spew fire all around, and I died almost immediately. I soon realized that I needed to reach that level with all of my lives intact or I stood no shot. If I accidentally bumped into a shell instead of landing on top of it on level three, I flipped the power switch and started over.
It has seemed at times that the Milwaukee Bucks are playing Super Mario. Last season, they made it to the final level, securing an unexpected playoff berth, but the fire-breathing Chicago Bulls dispatched them in the first round. A new season, and the game resets. The Bucks knew they couldn’t beat the last level with their current roster – they needed something more. And so they made a few moves that hurt their team in the short term, with their eyes on the prize: a championship.
To look at it another way, the Bucks knew they had pieces of a great team – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jabari Parker – but didn’t think Zaza Pachulia, Jared Dudley, or Brandon Knight were going to get them to their goal. Investing in their core while seeking to put new pieces around them, Milwaukee took a step back this season while seeking to take two steps forward in the years to come. The questions will be whether that step backward is too big, and how long it takes to get back to that final level.
How Things Stand
The Milwaukee Bucks are currently 32-46 as of Friday, a step down from last year’s 41-41 record. Milwaukee has been a completely different team at home, 23-17 to this point, and a brutal 9-29 on the road. With four games to go, the Bucks could finish anywhere from sixth to eleventh in the lottery order, with a number of teams bunched around similar win totals in the low thirties. In a weaker draft class, their final ordering could be very important in securing another blue chip player to fit into the core.
Although the wins haven’t been there, much of the excitement has returned down the stretch. Coach Jason Kidd took newer additions Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams and brought them in off the bench; this brought a shooter, OJ Mayo, into the starting lineup for Carter-Williams, and allowed Monroe to face off against bench bigs.
Without a point guard in the starting lineup, ball-handling duties fell to Giannis Antetokounmpo, and “Point Giannis” was born. Antetokounmpo excelled in his new role, putting up five triple-doubles in the span of a few weeks and destroying teams in transition with his length, athleticism, and passing. Kidd praised the young player, comparing him to Kobe Bryant, and has already named him the starting point guard for next season. With no major contract decisions to make, the Bucks face the offseason with an intact core and plenty of potential.
Steps to Take
Tank! – In 2012, the Golden State Warriors shamelessly tanked down the stretch of the season, dropping through a pack of players to secure the seventh pick (it was top-7 protected) and choose Harrison Barnes, whose versatility is key to their small-ball lineups. The Bucks need to take note and do whatever necessary to lose their last four games. Picking seventh or eighth could be very different in this draft than eleventh, and Milwaukee has nothing to play for at this point other than that pick.
Draft Shooting if Possible – With that draft pick, the Bucks need to target an elite shooter if one is available to them. What this doesn’t mean is ignoring a clearly better talent to choose a shooter – Sacramento did this for multiple years, taking Jimmer Fredette, Nik Stauskas, and Ben McLemore trying to find a shooter instead of taking better talents. If the Bucks jump into the top 3 and Ben Simmons is available at #2 or #3, they should pull the trigger and figure it out later. But if they can draft Brandon Ingram, Dragan Bender, Jamaal Murray, or Buddy Hield, this team should do so. Their lack of shooting has crippled their offense since trading Brandon Knight at last season’s deadline, and one of these players could help fill that void.
Have a Sitdown with Greg Monroe – Greg Monroe proved to be a middling fit in the starting lineup. He provided the post offense and rebounding he was expected to, but he was also unable to cover on the back line for players driving into the lane past overmatched defenders in Parker, Mayo, and Carter-Williams. When Jason Kidd moved Monroe onto the bench, however, he came alive. Monroe was a matchup issue for opposing benches, and Miles Plumlee’s rolling and defense proved a better fit with the starters. If Monroe is on board to fill this role again, a bench player still getting plenty of touches and minutes – think of the roles of Enes Kanter or Al Jefferson this season – he could be a solid piece for next season. If he is unhappy with that, the Bucks should entertain trade offers to make both sides happy.
Don’t Sign Dwight Howard…well, maybe – Dwight Howard is no longer a dominant, All-NBA player. He has been a passive part of an underachieving Houston team that is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. His bounce, recovery speed, effort, and stats across the board have been down this season. It is likely that if Howard, who expressed in February he had interest in Milwaukee, came to the Bucks that he would display many of the same effort and attitude issues. As a max-level player who would be 35 at the end of a full-length contract, Howard would provide diminishing returns for a team that is young and on the rise.
That all being true, Dwight Howard is still a talented player. Last April, he dominated the first two rounds of the playoffs, looking like a top-10 player and the best center in the league. Games such as his 33-point, 25-rebound effort from earlier this season show flashes of the player that may still be buried inside. If the Bucks believe culture is a huge part of Howard’s issues and can sign him for a less-than-max deal, they should kick the tires on bringing him in. He is a very rich man’s Miles Plumlee, and he could flourish in a context where he is wanted and not surrounded by dysfunction. But Milwaukee would need to move Monroe and should make such a deal only carefully.
Add a Veteran with a Strong Voice – One thing the Bucks have lacked this season are locker-room guys with track records and strong character. Players such as Jared Dudley and Zaza Pachulia filled roles outside of their on-court performance last season, and losing them hurt the Bucks in unexpected ways. Dudley and Pachulia will be free agents this year if the two parties would be interested in a reunion; other options could include Leandro Barbosa, Joakim Noah, or Luis Scola.
Hire the Best Shooting Coach out there – Jabari Parker has made only seven three-pointers this season, on only 29 attempts, for a brutal 24% rate. Giannis was similarly bad, hitting 21-93 for a 23% rate. With the athleticism these two players have, the ability to shoot from distance will unlock the entire offense. With Carter-Williams, another young piece without much long-range ability (15-55 for 27%), the investment in a coach who can help these players take a step up would be invaluable. Parker and Antetokounmpo have shown to be hard workers committed to improving their games, and this strategy over the offseason should pay dividends.
Continue to empower Giannis and Parker – The two biggest positives in a slightly disappointing season have been with Milwaukee’s two biggest stars. After a slow start, Parker has shown no ill effects recently of his ACL injury, displaying dominant athleticism and a better understanding of the floor. And Giannis’ rebirth as a nightly triple-double threat playing point has unlocked the offense over the last month. An offseason focusing on this role could provide the Bucks with the biggest matchup nightmare in the league: a 6-11 point guard who defends 1-5 and tallies rebounds, assists, and coast-to-coast dunks like the Warriors tally wins. Empowering these two players to be stars will help Milwaukee reach the lofty ceiling hanging before them.
Conclusion
There is no question that Milwaukee took two huge steps forward last season, going from the worst record in the league to the sixth seed in the playoffs. And this season they took a step back, falling out of the playoff race early. But the core is buzzing with potential and incredibly young players, and the 10-7 stretch of basketball directly after Point Giannis was unleashed – including wins over Houston, Atlanta, Boston, and Miami – speaks to the level of play this team can put together. With some draft-day luck, an intelligent offseason, and natural development from their rising stars, this team is well-positioned for a playoff berth next year, and possibly more to come down the road. Fire-breathing dragons or not, the Bucks are coming.
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