The Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird didn’t waste any time getting straight to the point at his press conference this morning. The former Celtic let it be known that the Pacers would not be working out a new contract with Frank Vogel as head coach. Conversely, it did take the Pacers a considerable amount of time to inform anyone, including Vogel, about their decision.
Bird said in the press conference that it was around the All-Star Break that he first decided it was going to be time to make a coaching change. Among his reasons, he focused on the offensive production, or lack thereof, under Vogel in 2015-16. Subtly undermining Vogel’s remarkable work with said roster, which included making the playoffs and forcing a Game 7 in the first round against a two-seed, Bird also credited the assistant coaching staff with the team’s remarkable defense. It was as if he was trying to say that the defense the Pacers played under Vogel would be achievable without him, while the offense can only improve.
Of course, not much was made of a roster featuring lots of guys with the names “Hill” or “George” or both and not a great deal else. Vogel, as coach, does rightfully play some role in the success or failure of his team. However, this roster doesn’t really give much reason to believe they had any business being in a Game 7 in any round of the playoffs – a testament to the work of Vogel, who consistently pushed the Pacers into relevance during his tenure.
Bird also made remarks about holding the attention of the team and not losing the locker room. While he did not believe that Frank had lost the locker room, he intoned that this team was somehow not reaching full potential under Vogel. And most people who followed the Pacers this season would probably immediately respond with, “What?” Further, Bird also laid some of the blame for the Pacers struggles this season on the expectance that Myles Turner was going to come along quickly as a key contributor, a plan that suffered a setback when he suffered an injury.
And really, Vogel has a great coaching record. The former assistant has only ever been a head coach of one team at the NBA level. During his time with the Pacers, Vogel only had one season under .500 and has a career record of 250-181. It is unclear if there is anyone else who could have become the head coach in Indiana and produced the results that Vogel was able to muster out of this team. He was there for the advent of Paul George. He presided over the craziness of Lance Stephenson, the Roy Hibbert rim protection revolution, and the Pacers pushing the LeBron James-era Miami Heat as hard or harder than any other Eastern Conference team during their apex.
That one losing season under Vogel? No Paul George. This year, with a returned George and a mostly “meh” supporting cast, Indianapolis was once again home to a winner and nearly conference semifinalist.
Chief among the strengths of Vogel is his defense, the very thing that Bird credited to assistant coaching during his press conference today. Since 2011, the Pacers have ranked top-10 in the league in both defensive rating and opponent points per game every single season, including last year when the team was below .500 and without their star wing player.
The struggle was always with the offense. Some of that will fall at the feet of Vogel, but some of that also needs to make its way over to Bird and Co. Take the body of work from Hibbert and Stephenson into account, what have they done offensively under other coaches in the league? The Pacers also lost David West to San Antonio after last season. The main addition was Monta Ellis. Ellis is capable of hot scoring nights when the mood strikes him and the planets align. The rest of the time? High volume, low efficiency scorer. To a limited extent, the Indiana front office can be somewhat forgiven for this. Ellis appeared to have become a new player in his time with the Mavericks, where he was playing for a contract on a playoff-bound team that featured a guaranteed Hall-of-Famer in Dirk Nowitzki.
The point isn’t that Ellis is a terrible player or that he was a fraud brought in under the guise that he would continue the performance of a contract year and not perform like the player who had existed in every situation and season of his career prior to that. The point, instead, is that Vogel may not be the best coach in the league, but he will be very hard to replace. Beyond that, scapegoating Vogel for an offense that had to rely on George and a supporting cast that would struggle on any roster in the league may not be entirely fair.
But that chapter has closed for Vogel. It is time for him to move forward. Where will he go? Well, what a time to be alive (and a coach at the NBA level). There are many options for Vogel if he wishes to immediately jump into a new coaching position in the NBA and he probably slots in near the top of everyone’s wish list.
Chief among the options will be Sacramento. Because Vogel wants to coach there? No. I don’t know that anyone really wants the job, though someone will have to take it at some point and they better pray that DeMarcus Cousins is their BFF by the end of the first day or it is going to be a long three months to their firing. The reason that the Kings are an option is because their owner is aware of the volatility of the position and is going to have to pay at a premium. Also, they are trying to interview every single possibly available coach. I’m rooting for Patrick Ewing on this one. And Frank Vogel is not Patrick Ewing.
Another possible destination is Houston. The Rockets are in need of a major changes and Vogel could be a great option for that franchise. The problems with this fit include their predilection for an open offense and less than stout defending. Sure, James Harden gets a bad rap. Some of it may be deserved, a lot of it is sensationalized, but beyond just defense he has some major effort issues. Plus, Dwight Howard will be gone. Clint Capela might be an adequate replacement, but we don’t know exactly how good he is just yet. And while Vogel could definitely improve their defensive situation, would Houston see that as detrimental to their analytically precise offensive approach?
The other team that seems to be coming up quite frequently is the New York Knicks. Right now, the Knicks seem to be playing some bizarre Zen-induced game of Rambis is Great! He is not. Ask the fine people of Minnesota about his time with their team, for starters. Rambis really shouldn’t be the answer for anyone. Yet, Phil Jackson hasn’t really budged yet on the coaching options. Realistically, the defensive improvement under Vogel would help them gain at least two or three wins over last season. And while assistant coaches do play a major role in the management of a roster and development, if there is any possibility that an already intriguing big like Kristaps Porzingis could find himself coached by the same guy who was in charge when Hibbert became the most feared center in the league, it’s already more interesting than whatever Rambis does. Their offense also features one of the best scorers in the league, Carmelo Anthony. A high-upside big man who can play both ends of the floor and is coachable plus one of the best current scorers in the league is a great start.
Of course, much like Vivek Ranadive in Sacramento, James Dolan in New York is a very difficult owner and that could cause the appeal of the job to lose some of its shine. Ultimately, the New York opening is probably the one that would be the most appealing to Vogel given the team’s high profile, likely great salary, the main roster components, and familiarity with the Eastern Conference.
Vogel has a lot of options and would do well to take as many interviews as possible, unless he already has his mind set on a particular vacancy. While it may be unclear which team he favors, he will be a big get for whichever team lands him. We probably won’t have to wait long to find out where he’s heading next.
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