During an excessively long pre-game show on ESPN on May 17th, all the decision makers, good luck charms and token representatives of the worst teams the NBA has to offer gathered to discover who would be the lucky winners of the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery. The Boston Celtics, by way of the Brooklyn Nets, dodged a potential free-fall out of the top three spots, but much like avoiding an awkward on-screen interview with Heather Cox, they landed right where they were projected.
The Celtics “maneuvered” their way into the top three spots of this year’s draft by simply taking advantage of the NBA ownership equivalent of Vlade Divac, 2016 NBA GM. That means they found a guy with a thick accent from Eastern Europe that doesn’t understand how trades work, and they put one over on him in the biggest way.
On the night of the drawing, it came down to the final number for Boston. According to Zach Lowe, there was a moment, when the final number was selected, where the Celtics had just a 1-in-11 chance of retaining the No. 3 pick.
Now the Celtics have the pick, but what to do with it?
The answer is normally obvious when you are at the very top of the draft board in any given year – take the best available player and the rest will sort itself out.
Except, the Philadelphia 76ers did that for a few years and ended up with four potentially very good to great picks in Nerlens Noel, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor. In this case, the seemingly best available guy, according to the Sixers front office and general manager Sam Hinkie, was always a front-court player. So, here they are with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, with an overflowing front court in one hand and TJ McConnell representing the back court in the other hand.
The Celtics have a different situation, a better situation. But they also do not have the luxury of deciding between Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons. Nor do they have the luxury of selecting the player left behind by Philadelphia. That dubious honor falls to the Lakers.
Behind both of those teams and a precipitous drop in the talent pool comes the No. 3 pick of the Celtics. What Boston does with the pick might be one of the biggest enigmas of the lottery portion of the upcoming draft. It can be broken into two simple, obvious categories: keep it or trade it.
Keep It
If general manager Danny Ainge plans to keep the pick, how he plans to draft is fairly significant considering the mild to astonishing success of Brad Stevens with a roster that is bare in the talent department.
They currently possess a fringe all-star in guard Isaiah Thomas, though Thomas repeating that achievement is as unlikely as was his garnering the honor in the first place. They also have Jae Crowder. Ainge has made a habit of winning trades, see: Nets 2016 first round pick, Jae Crowder for Rajon Rondo.
After Crowder and Thomas it starts to thin out pretty quickly. Kelly Olynyk has improved and somehow they haven’t been able to find someone to usurp Jared Sullinger. Which, they should. As soon as possible. Marcus Smart still has a lot of upside, but maybe not as much as a lot of people thought when he entered the league. Then there is Avery Bradley, Jonas Jerebko and the likely gone Evan Turner. The roster has more players, but I think I’ve gone far enough with that.
The primary starting lineup is a combination of Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Sullinger and Amir Johnson. Of this group, only Crowder and Thomas perform at a high level right now and Bradley appears to be highly valued, though perhaps his on/off numbers don’t quite show the impact that he is credited for. Sullinger and Johnson are probably the most expendable of this group. That’s the front court. So, if they feel good about the back court and starting small forward, with competent and high potential backups like Smart and Olynyk, they might want to swing on a big man. But who?
Skal Labissiere – PF/C (Kentucky)
Nope. No. Not happening. But, it was worth putting his name here because at the beginning of the college season Labissiere was one of the marquee names in the game and it seemed like a lot of hot wind was pushing him into the top five, or higher, on the draft board.
Dragan Bender – PF (Maccabi Tel Aviv)
It seems like there isn’t a lock for Boston, but this is easily the strongest choice. Bender falls into the new Super Euro category of bigs who have technical skills (ball handling, distance shooting, passing, IQ) but still need time to develop. There are some downsides: it’s a draft-and-stash type pick, which might not thrill their passionate (read: impatient) fans, and bringing ANY player to the NBA from overseas is a gamble. Still, the European game is improving by leaps and bounds, so it is much safer than in previous generations.
Henry Ellenson – PF (Marquette)
Definitely not a No. 3 pick in this draft or most others. He has considerable upside on the offensive end of the floor and the physical potential to get better on defense. He just seems like a big reach at the third spot when there are great players all over the floor.
Marquese Chriss – PF (Washington)
This is the “fifty on red and let it ride” option that Floorpunch wrote a song about. You don’t go after Chriss at the third pick without being a little crazy. It seems that Chriss has all the potential in the world, but there is a lot of skepticism that he can ever tap into that potential. This is the boom or bust guy, according to many people who are much smarter about college hoops than I will ever be. He isn’t the pick here, but he might be a guy that they talk about almost drafting four years from now when they still have Sullinger running it back with his “all this movement is uncomfortable” gait.
Some draft sites/experts have guards like Buddy Hield or forwards like Jalen Brown in the mix, but it just doesn’t seem likely unless they find a place to send Bradley or Smart, both of which are perfectly capable NBA players. There are few other big men that weren’t touched on here, such as Jakob Poeltl, Domantas Sabonis and Cheick Diallo. All have intriguing upside, but none of those names seem to ring when mentioned in the same breath as No. 3 pick in the NBA draft.
Trade It
As pointed out earlier, Ainge is a guy who likes to make a trade that benefits him in very obvious ways. Don’t need a malcontent guard who is a great passer but can’t shoot at all? Trade him for a guy who becomes a fringe all-star and key piece of your starting five! Don’t need a couple of old guys who clog up your salary space? Dump them for an unprotected pick! Ainge also carries a reputation for being the guy who calls, offers you his bevy of second round picks and all he asks for is one of your two best players. You know, a fair offer. Right?
Ainge probably has to put together a pretty good offer to have a chance of making moves. There seem like a couple of obvious options to make moves and some pretty insane ones as well.
Chicago Bulls
Imagine a world where the Bulls traded Jimmy Butler and the No. 14 pick in this year’s draft for the No. 3 pick, Crowder and Bradley. There are definitely better options out there, probably even between the Bulls and Celtics, but this is the one I settled on. Because there is a point to be made here. The Bulls are a mess with contracts and have so many decisions to make about the future of their team. This trade is pretty fair, but also pretty outrageous at the same time. Giving up Butler for just about anything is nonsense, but that just means Chicago is probably interested in the idea. The single biggest thing working in favor of this trade is that the salaries match. Everything else kind of screams that this couldn’t happen.
Crowder isn’t on Butler’s level. Bradley makes a nice guard to work with the first team or run the second team. The No. 14 pick isn’t great, but keeps you in the lottery in exchange for your coveted pick. A lot of people feel like this is one of the most likely destinations for Butler if the Bulls decide they don’t want to have one of the league’s better players anymore. Finding something that the Celtics would give up to make the salaries work that isn’t insulting is difficult.
Philadelphia 76ers
A few rumors are making the rounds that Boston is interested in Jahlil Okafor. Okafor seems to be interested in just about anything that isn’t Philadelphia. That portion of it works. And how about that? What if the Sixers had the No. 1 and No. 3 pick in the upcoming draft? Even Hinkie couldn’t have seen that coming! So the question here would be how to make the salaries work. A straight swap was mentioned, but ESPN’s Trade Machine doesn’t think that works. So who goes the other way in the trade? Sullinger isn’t enough on his own and the Sixers probably want a back court player like Bradley or Smart. That would make Philly downright diabolically set to roll. They could add a player like Bradley or Smart to their Embiid, Saric, Noel front-court and use the draft to grab Ingram or Simmons and another guard like Brown or Hield.
Oklahoma City Thunder
What has to happen for a Durant sign and trade…?
Just kidding. This is just fishing for a Bill Simmons click.
The Bulls and Sixers really seem to be the teams that have the greatest propensity for making a move, but nothing immediately jumps out as a trade that makes both sides want to say yes. The Bulls aren’t dying to get rid of Butler and a prospect like Bender has much more to offer, if he reaches his potential, than Okafor brings to the table with his skill set and somewhat suspect rookie crash into Philly.
There are other places that might have the assets to make a move. The Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns or Sacramento Kings might be game for a trade. If Ainge could find a way to trade the No. 3 pick and bring DeMarcus Cousins to Boston while possibly staying in the top eight of the draft, you would know that either Ainge or Stevens made a deal directly with the devil. Of course, salaries and whatnot would need to be matched or figured out, but I choose to ignore reality when it comes to the amazingly wasted talent that is Cousins in Sacramento. Boogie to Boston just has a great ring to it.
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