The amount of movement in mock drafts has been akin to the motion in the ocean, which likely foreshadows a wonderfully weird and sunny 23rd day of June here in 2016.
Predicting what Minnesota will do with the no. 5 overall pick is an almost impossible exercise. There’s no telling who’ll still be available by the time the Timberwolves are on the clock, and it’s also anyone’s guess whom the almighty Tom Thibodeau prefers.
No one has any clue what’s going to happen at no. 3 with Boston, and we never will until it does given the seeds of doubt that Danny Ainge drops to journalists. The Suns are in a similar situation in terms of unpredictability, caught between big boulders. They have too many guards (again), an expensive aging center stealing minutes from a young promising one, and little to speak of in terms of NBA talent at the three and four positions. Phoenix’s best stretch-four this year was Mirza Teletovic, and he’ll likely leave the desert amid the heat of July free agency. P.J. Tucker’s defense and corner-3 ball makes him the only interchangeable 3/4 on the roster.
Nevertheless, teams will often prefer to take the “best player available” at this portion of the draft, though the best player today is often not truly the best player today (nor will he be five years from now). The one thing that looms larger than life is unanimous Rookie of the Year Karl-Anthony Towns, the shapeshifting game-changing center who won the Skills Challenge during All-Star Weekend.
Looking at the squad, the top five talents are Towns, Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Gorgui Dieng. Shabazz Muhammad gets a shout-out as sixth best. That could be a starting lineup that grows together, but I’d prefer Towns play the five, leaving an opening for a starting stretch-four. With that being said, Tom Thibodeau should not be afraid to break the mold when painting this modern masterpiece. Before I make my case for who that means the Timberwolves should draft, let’s look at some mocks from around the web.
Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Sharp begrudgingly has Kris Dunn landing in Minnesota at no. 5 overall.
“I’m pretty sure I still prefer the upside of Jamal Murray here, but it’s tough to argue against Dunn. He gives Minnesota some Ricky Rubio insurance in case of injury or a trade down the line, and his explosive presence in the backcourt would be a nice counterpoint to Zach LaVine’s more laconic approach. Most importantly, the more I think about this pick, the more I remember that Tom Thibodeau is in charge of personnel in Minnesota. If there’s a point guard available who throws himself all over the court and can help immediately, do you really see Thibs passing on him?”
Personally, I like Rubio’s game, but I do wonder about his fit unless the Timberwolves find a solid four who can shoot the rock. Rubio actually had his best season shooting the three-ball in 2015-16, but it’s entirely possible that he and Wiggins might never even become average outside shooters. This might not be an issue if the fifth guy can splash from deep since LaVine and Towns already space the court.
TLM’s Zach Reynolds says Buddy Hield is the answer for the Timberwolves in his recent mock:
“Adding an elite outside shooter has to be on the top of the wish list in Minnesota, and the team gets one of the best on the market here with Hield. The top player in college basketball this season, Hield’s ability to pair with Andrew Wiggins would be far to enticing to pas up.”
Chris Stone of Fansided has Jamal Murray tabbed for no. 5 overall:
“…The two players that stick out here are Kentucky’s Jamal Murray and Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield. While Hield is the better defender of the two, which may appeal to new head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau, Murray has higher upside…”
Super-small-ball lineups including Hield, Murray, or Dunn plus Towns, Wiggins, Rubio, and LaVine are definitely fascinating to imagine. It’s not insane to think Towns can handle the interior mostly by his lonesome while Wiggins adds a little weight in hopes of someday mirroring Shawn Marion’s inside impact. This is why it’s also easy to picture a relatively poor rebounding stretch four next to Towns, so Marquese Chriss could be an option as well.
Meanwhile, Gary Parrish of CBS has Dragan Bender going fifth in his recent mock:
“Bender is widely regarded as the top draft-eligible prospect who didn’t play college basketball this season, and there’s little doubt he’ll be selected in the top half of the lottery. He’s an 18-year-old forward who would fit nicely between Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. If he’s available here, Minnesota would be thrilled.”
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It’s entirely possible that Chriss (who has been rising rapidly in mock drafts lately) and Bender are taken at no. 3 and no. 4 by the Celtics and Suns, but should one or both of them fall, I think either could excel on Minnesota as the starting four of the future.
Timothe Luwawu is another talented 3-and-D guy who has been rising in mock drafts, and he’s worth a look too. I don’t see the Timberwolves drafting a center such as Jakob Poetl or a wing without a jumper like Jaylen Brown, but beyond that not much would surprise me given the lack of certainty following the first two picks. This is probably the last time that the Wolves will be in position to pick this high in the draft for the next 15 years, so it’d definitely be a good one to nail. Regardless, the days of this team being relegated to NBA League Pass are finally coming to an end.
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