The popular pick for the Pelicans as far as mock drafts go—Providence senior guard Kris Dunn. Would that be a home-run for New Orleans?
USA Today’s Derek Bodner, TLM’s Zach Reynolds, CBS’ Gary Parrish and Sam Vecenie all have Dunn landing in New Orleans at no. 6 overall. After Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are gone, most folks believe that Boston and Phoenix will select frontcourt players since they’ve already got more guards than they know what to do with (and Dunn repeatedly shrugged them off).
A skinny 7-1 Croatian big man with the best name in the draft–Dragan Bender falls to New Orleans at no. 6 in ESPN’s Chad Ford. If the Pelicans believe Bender could bulk up and play center down the road and the youngster somehow slips, I think New Orleans has to take a chance on him (especially since Anthony Davis has made it 100 percent clear he wants to play the four). However, most mockers have tabbed Bender to be taken in the top five picks. The center position will need to be addressed eventually for New Orleans. Nevertheless, no. 6 overall will not be the time or the place assuming Bender is gone.
Since the vast majority of mocks have Bender falling in that 3-5 range, let’s assume for sake of argument that the Croatian has been taken by the time the Pelicans are on the clock. Dunn reportedly hopes to land in Minnesota, but of course that doesn’t mean the Timberwolves will select him at no. 5. For all the talk of this being a weak draft class, the Wolves will possess plenty of exciting options (as will the Pels at no. 6).
Predicting the lottery picks is always a nearly impossible task, but here we are, and I’m going to take a giant leap of faith in order to make this easier and more fun. The first five picks of the 2016 draft are as follows (better luck next year, Woj!): Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Jaylen Brown, and Marquese Chriss.
With the no. 6 overall pick, the Pelicans are considering Dunn, Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield. Chriss could be a stud stretch-four but Davis already plays the four, and Jaylen Brown enters the NBA without a serviceable jumper. Dunn is the only one of the aforementioned group who is slated to be picked in the top six in almost every mock draft known to man.
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From what I can tell, Dunn’s two-way potential far exceeds Hield’s or Murray’s, and pairing the Providence guard with a healthy Holiday could provide Davis with one of the best backcourts in basketball.
However, things will get really tricky if Dunn is drafted by Minnesota. Murray may offer more upside than Hield, but the Sooner could have the higher floor and be more ready to contribute immediately. Both would presumably be excellent offensive fits alongside Davis and Holiday, but the fear is that neither develops into anything more than a decent defender who struggles to switch onto other positions. Eric Gordon isn’t the same player that he was pre-knee injuries, but this is the fear in drafting an offensive shooting guard without elite explosiveness like Murray or Hield, no matter how smooth or seasoned they might be on offense. This is why I believe athletic 3-and-D wing Timothe Luwawu deserves to be in the discussion at no. 6. Or any other host of players including Denzel Valentine or Furkan Korkmaz. There’s no easy decision on who to pick because there are always guys who will slip through the cracks of any draft to become stars.
Most people projected the Pelicans as a fringe-playoff team or better in 2015-16 before injuries derailed yet another one of their seasons. However, the campaign should have helped Dell Demps and Alvin Gentry gain an understanding of the situation. Given that Davis doesn’t want to play the five, Ryan Anderson is probably going to sign elsewhere (and hopefully thrive). Davis’ reluctance and/or inability to play center limits the Pelicans’ options a bit in terms of filling out the frontcourt, and stretch fours like Marquese Chriss and Anderson might not be the best fit given their rebounding struggles.
New Orleans is paying a combined $25 million to Tyreke Evans, Omer Asik, and Alexis Ajinca in 2016-17. As a result, it will be tough for the Pelicans to become big-time players in free agency. A trade seems unlikely unless they were to receive an offer they couldn’t refuse–say former no. 6 pick Nerlens Noel for this year’s no. 6 pick. That’s probably unlikely to happen even though the Sixers are log-jammed down low, but unless an outstanding deal comes along the Pels probably won’t trade this pick (even though that’s exactly what they’ve done for the last half-decade).
If New Orleans nails this pick and has a leap year of good luck in the health department, they put themselves right back in position to potentially sneak into the playoffs like they did in 2014-15 (despite injuries!). But more importantly, it provides them the opportunity to improve the team long-term by adding a player who can grow with this young but experienced squad. There are some pieces here along Davis health willing who do all the little things that it takes to win basketball games (Holiday, Quincy Pondexter, Dante Cunningham). Adding a star-level talent to complement Davis and a revitalized Holiday puts the Pels on track to be competitors for the crown before Davis’ contract is up if they’re smart and lucky. For now, it’s about getting better one day at a time. That and crushing this draft.
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