Did the Minnesota Timberwolves find the fourth member of their core, or did Thibodeau simply pick another version of the point guard he already has?
Effort. Defense. Basketball I.Q. Coachable. Team Player. Two-way Player. Heart.
These are the attributes Tom Thibodeau has most valued in the players he has coached in the past. The greatest defensive mind in the league, “Thibs” seemed to favor a certain type of player during his days in Chicago. He wanted guys that would give their all on both ends of the court, sacrifice for the team, and avoid making mistakes.
As Thibodeau stepped in this offseason as the new Head Coach and Team President of the Minnesota Timberwolves, it seemed likely that he would put this mark on the team – that he would go after players who fit the Thibodeau mold.
And he has already, making it just to the threshold of a trade that would bring wing Jimmy Butler from the Chicago Bulls. Butler grew from a late draft pick into an All-Star under Thibodeau’s tutelage, and perfectly embodies the Thibodeau mold. Every team in the league would get better by adding Butler, but with Thibodeau he could reach the highest heights.
The trade fell through (at least for now), but the principle exists: Thibodeau is going after a certain type of player. During Thursday night’s draft, that was seen again as he applied his philosophy to the Timberwolves’ No. 5 overall selection.
Draft Night
Many draft analysts spoke of the Timberwolves needing shooting, both from the backcourt and the stretch-4 positions. The draft unfolded perfectly for those needs, and the Wolves had their pick of the two best shooters in the class. Jamal Murray was the elite scorer and shooter Minnesota could us, while Buddy Hield was the best marksman in the draft. At the 4, Marquese Chriss had all the raw potential of a stretch-big.
But Thibodeau doesn’t listen to draft analysts, and perhaps not to anyone talking about “team need” or even “best player available.” Thibodeau is looking for his players. And he saw one at the top of the draft and pulled the trigger. Kris Dunn became a member of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
A 6-4 point guard out of Providence, Dunn returned for his senior year to improve his draft stock. A fringe lottery prospect last season, Dunn became one of the very best in college basketball this year, and vaulted up draft boards. He averaged 16.4 points and 6.4 assists, the latter good enough to put him 12th in the country. No player with more assists had a better assists-to-turnover ratio, a stat that highlights his on-court intelligence and ability to make the right pass.
Dunn’s length and athleticism can be seen in the box score, as he snagged 5.3 rebounds a game as a point guard, and swiped 2.5 steals. No major-conference player had more steals per game. On tape those attributes leapt out even more, as Dunn smothered opposing ball-handlers and flew around the court to grab rebounds and loose balls. Dunn entered the draft in the top-5 of nearly every mock draft and big board, and he was clearly high on Minnesota’s.
Minnesota was also high on Dunn’s board. The 22-year old expressed his joy at going to the Timberwolves on draft night, and all reports verify that was genuine. Once the laughing-stock franchise of the NBA, now it’s one of the top destinations for young players.
Next Year
The presumed problem with Dunn’s selection is the current starting point guard in Minnesota. Ricky Rubio has been the Timberwolves’ starter, when healthy, for the last five years. The Spanish guard has been among the league leaders in assists and steals every year, finishing second in steals three of the last four seasons. While not considered one of the best at the position, Ricky Rubio is a solid starter at point guard.
What’s more, Rubio excels at many of the things Dunn does well. He rebounds well for a point guard, bringing in 4.3 boards this past season. He is long and athletic, one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. And his assist-to-turnover ratio was the fourth best in the league this season.
On the surface, this seems to suggest Kris Dunn could have a limited role this season. Rubio averaged 30 minutes a night last year, which would seem to allocate around 18 to Dunn. Tom Thibodeau has suggested that Rubio and Dunn could play alongside one another. Defensively this is no problem, as Dunn has the size to cover two-guards. But he is a shaky outside shooter, and with Rubio likewise not a long-distance scorer the Timberwolves’ spacing would suffer.
Still, marking out a few minutes for Dunn at the two could move him over the 20-minute per game mark. Thibodeau hasn’t played his rookies huge minutes in the past, although he has never been in quite this situation before, with a young up-and-coming team. He could elect to open up more minutes for Dunn this year to prepare him for years to come.
Dunn will also have the opportunity for extended run when Rubio misses time, as he almost certainly will. The Spaniard has missed 91 games over the last four seasons, playing more than 76 only once in his career. That will open up a few nights of starting for Dunn, the perfect moments to test his development.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have playoff aspirations this season. As NBA-ready as Kris Dunn is, he is not ready to contribute at a playoff-level in a major role. Given Thibodeau’s track record, the most likely role for his rookie year is as Rubio’s backup while he learns the system and speed of the NBA.
Moving Forward
Beginning at last year’s trade deadline, Ricky Rubio’s name has come up consistently in trade rumors. A few years older than the not-old-enough-to-drink core of the team, it was possible the Timberwolves wanted to flip Rubio for younger assets.
With the hiring of Tom Thibodeau, the organization’s stance on Rubio became more muddied. He was still tossed around in trade rumors, but the undeniable fact that Ricky Rubio was a quintessential Thibodeau player could not be ignored either. If Tom Thibodeau could design a point guard from scratch, the end result would look similar to Ricky Rubio. Hustle, intelligence, elite court vision and passing.
The end result may also look a lot like Kris Dunn, who is not quite on Rubio’s level as a passer (very few are) but possesses better athleticism. While physically they look different, on the court both have very similar skill-sets.
Long-term, the Timberwolves will almost certainly have to choose between the two. Unless Rubio declines or Dunn fails to develop, they will soon have two very talented point guards that should both be getting starter’s minutes.
One route is to trade Kris Dunn as part of a package for a young veteran star such as Jimmy Butler. That trade could certainly still happen, but for now it seems that Chicago has hung up the phone on their former coach Thibodeau.
Another would be to trade Rubio, who would be an upgrade for a number of teams in the league. His trade value may be less than Dunn’s, but he also is a better short-term player for a Timberwolves team ready to make the leap.
The question comes down to whether Kris Dunn will be a better player than Ricky Rubio. With newly drafted prospects, the sky seems the limit, and the growth of Minnesota’s young core seems to suggest unlimited potential for Dunn.
But Kris Dunn, at 22, is already older than Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine. The growth they are experiencing he already showed in college. While at 22 he is by no means a finished product, he is also in many ways the player he ultimately will become.
That’s the reason Minnesota shouldn’t rush to trade Ricky Rubio. If Kris Dunn is able to add the ability to hit three-pointers consistently, and fills out his abilities at passing and defending, then he becomes a younger, better, cost-controlled version of Ricky Rubio. That’s the player who validates the No. 5 pick in the draft and joins a young core destined for greatness.
But if he can’t add that jump-shot, Dunn probably tops out as the next Ricky Rubio, who does so many things incredibly well, but is often defined by what he can’t do – namely, his the outside shot. Rubio has worked hard at that area of his game and improved, but he will never scare teams from distance. If Dunn cannot reach that point, he becomes a very good, but not great, point guard.
Minnesota has no rush to make a decision on Ricky Rubio. For at least this season the two point guards can easily coexist as Dunn learns the league and Rubio directs the helm of a rising ship.
Down the road, Kris Dunn controls his future with this team. If he can quickly become the player his potential hints at, then Rubio is most likely the odd-man out and Kris Dunn becomes the fourth amigo on a team that will be good for a long time. If he cannot, then the Timberwolves may be wishing they took Jamal Murray or another shooter.
But in the end, it’s doubtful Minnesota would have taken anyone else. Thibodeau knows what he wants, and Kris Dunn is that player. For basketball fans the world over, let’s hope he is the man for the job.
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