The Chicago Bulls made a number of unique moves this offseason, shipping out longtime pillars for the stars of yesteryear. Will those moves prove to be beneficial, or are the Bulls living in a dream?
The ire of the NBA community can come quickly and ferociously.
Most transactions in sports fall into one of three categories. The largest by far are those decisions on which fans and media are split. Some are excited to see Kevin Durant fit into the juggernaut that Golden State already had. Others think he eliminated competition. There isn’t consensus.
The New York Knicks signed Joakim Noah. Those in favor see defense, passing, and leadership at the pivot; those opposed see New York paying $18 million per year for an injury-riddled center who can’t score and will be 35 in the last year of his contract. Two sides to the coin.
Another category – the smallest, are the universally praised deals, the ones where Denver is applauded for landing Jamal Murray in the draft, or Brooklyn (yes, Brooklyn) for signing Jeremy Lin at a great price to run the point.
The final category is perhaps the most prominent, those deals that draw the ire of the basketball community. Exhibit A is whatever Sacramento decides to do in a given year. Past examples include the Andrea Bargnani trade for the New York Knicks, or any team trading for Jeff Green.
Chicago is the center of the storm right now, with a series of questionable moves that have them declared a prominent loser in the offseason so far. Should Bulls’ fans have hope for this season and beyond? How do Robin Lopez, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo fit into Chicago and its high expectations?
The Moves
The Chicago Bulls entered the offseason with two viable paths. One was to stay the course, finding a defensive center to replace free agent Pau Gasol while keeping Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler as the offensive centerpieces. Such a team, if healthy, would be in contention for home-court advantage in the East.
The other route was the teardown, trading Rose and Butler to stock the team with young talent and draft picks that could better fit the pace-and-space offense head coach Fred Hoiberg runs.
The Bulls decided to split the difference, making a new path in between the two that seems headed for an uncertain destination. They traded Rose, drafted shooters, and let Chicago mainstay Joakim Noah walk in free agency. But rather than commit to a rebuild, they kept Jimmy Butler and signed non-shooters in Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, two players on the opposite end of the rebuilding spectrum.
With Mike Dunleavy traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, three of Chicago’s starters and many of their reserves are now playing elsewhere. What sort of expectations can Chicago fans have for next season?
The 2017 landscape
The Eastern Conference is a pyramid, with King James on top and holding court over the other 14 teams. Until another team can topple him, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites. Though on a level below the Cavs, the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics seem to be a tier above the rest.
After that things become incredibly murky. Last year’s other five playoff teams all made significant changes. Charlotte replaced Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin, and Courtney Lee with Roy Hibbert and Ramon Sessions, hardly a lateral move. Will they be significantly worse next year? Atlanta swapped out Jeff Teague for rookie wings, and Al Horford for Dwight Howard. Indiana sent off a great coach, brought on Jeff Teague for George Hill, and shuffled their frontcourt around.
Chicago is among the teams hoping to break back into the playoffs. For the Bulls, the drought is only a season. Meanwhile, teams like the Knicks and Magic have had longer stays in the lottery. Miami lost major pieces of their rotation – can they stay in the playoff hunt?
The simple truth is that nothing about the Chicago Bulls’ roster suggests they will beat out the teams around them for a playoff berth. Their expected starting lineup of Rondo, Wade, Butler, Nikola Mirotic, and Robin Lopez contains one above-average defender. Wade and Rondo have aged out of defensive prowess, and Mirotic and Lopez lack the lateral movement to stay in front of offensive players.
If the team’s chances look grim with a defenseless frontcourt, they look grimmer with a backcourt that cannot shoot. Together Rondo and Wade combined for 69 made threes last season. Butler made only another 64 in 67 games, and Lopez went 0-1 on the year. If the Bulls try to shore up their defense by swapping in Taj Gibson or Bobby Portis for Nikola Mirotic, suddenly Chicago is fielding a 1980s-type team with no outside shooters.
This doesn’t even take into account the fact that Chicago’s major rotation pieces cannot stay healthy, and this team has watched its depth head to warmer waters. Mirotic, Rondo, Wade, and Butler have all had major injuries in recent years, and everyone who has been in Chicago for a few seasons develops a host of minor bumps and bruises that keep them out of games. Players such as Jerian Grant, rookie Denzel Valentine, and Doug McDermott will be called upon to start a significant number of games this year, and none have proven they can hold up doing so.
The Knicks are not going to be good this year, but they can probably win more games than Chicago. Orlando has a puzzling collection of pieces, but there is talent there and Frank Vogel is a good coach who will have that team playing excellent defense. And while Miami lost Wade, Deng, and Joe Johnson, they have young wing talent and an underrated coach with a lot of intelligence for lineups and schemes.
There is talent on this team. The Dwyane Wade who led the Heat to the brink of the Conference Finals despite his team dropping around him is a talented player who impacts the game. But he doesn’t bring that every night in the regular season, and playoff heroics don’t help a team that is sitting at home in May. Rondo racks up assists, but at the expense of his team’s success – he has a negative impact whenever he is on the floor.
In short, the Bulls could be headed for the top draft pick they are seemingly trying to avoid. With Milwaukee and Washington looking for bounce back years, the Bulls could find themselves around 12th or 13th in the East, a shocking finish for a franchise with a lot of pride. More likely, Chicago fits their way to a finish around 10th, still out of reach of a postseason run.
Looking Ahead
If the Bulls have little hope for a competitive 2017, can fans at least take solace in the future of this organization? There is a silver lining, but it has to be deployed.
If Chicago stays their current course, mediocrity is going to be the name of the game. Wade and Rondo are only getting older, and they will continue to butt against the fast-paced spacing that Hoiberg wishes to instill. Butler is a talented two-way star, but he can’t do everything as his backcourt ages and the frontcourt plateaus.
There is room for improvement with this core. Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis still have room to grow, and could be solid rotation pieces down the road. But neither has the pure star potential the Bulls need to pair with Butler. Chicago will have cap space next year, especially if they waive Rondo, but how many true stars will want to join a team that sputtered to a lowly finish in the East?
The best option for Chicago was not to sign Rondo or Wade. But that didn’t happen, and now Chicago may need to realize that rebuilding around Jimmy Butler isn’t going to happen in time. Minnesota, Phoenix, Denver, and Boston all have attractive collections of young players and future draft picks. Sending out Butler for a hefty return could jump-start the rebuild that needs to happen.
With a first-round pick possibly heading to Chicago from Sacramento, plus their pick and whatever they receive by trade, the Bulls could have the ammunition to mine a talented 2017 draft class for the pieces they need to build a real core.
Because the reality is that Chicago doesn’t have a core right now. They have stars of the last decade pairing with one-dimensional players, and one real star who cannot carry this team alone. That won’t bring titles back to Chicago.
Unfortunately, while it’s clear from the outside this roster construction isn’t going to work, on the inside Chicago thinks it has already won. They threw large, above-market contracts at Wade and Rondo and held tightly to Butler in the face of major trade offers. They think this is going to work.
And that means they probably won’t do the right thing and reset the roster. Instead they’ll fill growing holes with oddly shaped plugs and hope the dam doesn’t burst. In the meantime, the rest of the East will continue getting better, King James will continue to hold court, and Chicago fans should just double down on the Cubs for the next few years.
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