Will Phil Jackson’s grand hopes to keep the triangle and bully-ball alive prove prudent or pitiful? When Jeff Hornacek signed on as head coach and Robin Lopez was shipped to Chicago, it felt like the Zen Master was ready to roll with a more modern style of play. However, inking Joakim Noah for the next four years showed that Jackson planned to double down on the two-big lineup all along.
Phil Jackson and the good fans of New York City sports are hoping that Madison Square Garden, Carmelo Anthony, and Kristaps Porzingis can help Noah and former MVP Derrick Rose find the fountain of youth. Melo and Porzingis are still the faces of the franchise, the latter the unquestioned future, but Joakim is immediately the heart and soul of this team. If Noah can manage 25 minutes per game of high-intensity action over the course of the upcoming season, he has the opportunity to provide the squad with an on-court identity.
Noah represents Jackson’s biggest home-run swing, a whiff which would result in wild winds that could blow New York off course for several years. In terms of high-risk, high-reward signings involving aging former Chicago stars, I’d have preferred that the Knicks go after Luol Deng rather than Noah. No offense to Noah, but the likelihood that he’s able to stay healthy and quick-footed enough to survive going forward seems less likely than Deng’s. Furthermore, Deng is a solid shooter boasting positional versatility. New York’s entire outlook would be drastically different playing Porzingis at the five full-time alongside a trio such as Deng, Melo, and Courtney Lee. Instead of having four floor-spacers on the court, Rose and Noah will invite opponents to clog the lane and focus on stopping the outside shooting of Anthony, Porzingis, and even Lee. It’s a tough sell that Rose and the team in general wouldn’t be more likely to succeed with four shooters surrounding him instead of three.
It could be worse though. The Bulls are proof of that with a projected starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic, and Robin Lopez. Sadly, Derrick Rose might merely be a low-risk, low-reward addition at this point. Even if he puts together a decent season (something that hasn’t happened in a while), will Rose reach a level of play that justifies re-signing him to a long-term max deal next summer? And how does he fit into a triangle-type offense without seriously improving his jumper?
Courtney Lee, Lance Thomas, and Brandon Jennings were all signed to very reasonable contracts. If these three simple additions had been the meat and bones of New York’s offseason, I’d be more inclined to call the offseason a success. However, it will still be compelling to watch this group compete for a playoff spot. Projecting the Knicks’ ceiling is perhaps even tougher than predicting the rest of the conference’s records. If we pencil Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta, and Boston into four of the eight playoff spots, there are four openings for nine realistic hopefuls: Charlotte, Indiana, Detroit, Miami, Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Milwaukee, and New York.
My gut says to include Charlotte, Indiana, and Detroit as part of the penciled-in part of the East. The Hornets may have lost an important piece in Lee and a veteran bench scorer with tenure on the team in Jefferson, but if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist stays healthy they could equal last year’s win total (48). Larry Bird made a coaching change that has drawn no shortage of skepticism, and he appeared to throw away the team’s decade-long defensive identity in exchange for offensive upside. Still, who’s going to bet against Paul George leading Indy to the postseason? The Pistons’ core-five of Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, and Andre Drummond will probably finish among the top eight in the East as well.
Injuries and other surprise factors will render all the above as pure nonsense, but for sake of argument that chops things down to one playoff spot left—with New York, Miami, Chicago, Washington, Orlando, and Milwaukee all in the hunt. Even if we figure the Sixers and Nets are still destined to sit at the kids’ table and finish with less than 30 wins, there will be a serious race for the playoffs in the East this year.
On the other hand, it’s certainly possible that injuries will disallow Noah to replicate Lopez’s production from last year. Lopez’s contract is much more team-friendly, so this essential swapping at center was a big risk New York took in order to get rid of Jose Calderon and rent Rose for a year. On the surface, this seems like a trade that was made to sell the city on a one-and-done playoff team, a peyote day-dream of Jackson’s gone awry. But sometimes crazy things happen: sometimes gardens really do grow through concrete in Manhattan, as mother nature shows no regard for human life. Perhaps Noah can revitalize his body and lead the Knicks with perfect passing and dominant defense. Maybe Rose can refine his role and thrive as a pass-first point guard. All due respect to Jimmy Butler, but Anthony is inarguably the best individual wing scorer that Rose has played with, and the dynamic there will be intriguing. Rose has played with skilled big men too, but never a three-point raining unicorn who throws down put-back slams.
Another possibility is that injuries dismantle New York’s chances to compete. A few injuries to some of the top five guys could result in a tank-job for a team with limited depth. The range of possibilities is wide, but the most likely scenario involves the Knicks landing somewhere between eighth and 13th.
A playoff berth in an improved Eastern Conference could at least help Jackson land meetings with Russell Westbrook and other top free agents in 2017. New York will enter next offseason with $76 million against cap for 2017-18, leaving just enough room to make a run at Westbrook. A starting five of Russ, Lee, Anthony, Porzingis, and Noah would put the mean in Madison Square Garden. That’s a pipedream sure, but New York’s relevance over the next half-decade hangs on future lottery luck, Noah and Rose rallying against the clock to regain their prior forms, or star players deciding they want to play in the Big Apple.
Filling Out the Roster
Kyle O’Quinn—O’Quinn didn’t play all that much last season, and Noah’s signing means it may be a similar story in 2016-17. Nevertheless, O’Quinn will hold down the fort as the third big man on the depth chart behind Noah and Porzingis.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas—Say that five times fast. Kuzminskas turns 27 before the regular season begins, and the Lithuanian small forward is set to make $6 million over the next two years in New York.
Willy Hernangomez—Brother of the Nuggets’ intriguing rookie Juancho Hernangomez, Willy will probably spend significant time honing his game in the D-League.
Justin Holiday—In my opinion, Holiday was the steal of the deal between the Knicks and Bulls featuring Derrick Rose and Robin Lopez. Holiday played well for Chicago down the stretch last season, and he should have an opportunity to earn reserve minutes behind Courtney Lee and Carmelo Anthony along the wing as a 3-and-D specialist.
Sasha Vujacic—Vujacic wasn’t half bad towards the end of the 2015-16 season, and he will fight with Holiday for backup wing minutes. Holiday possesses the clear advantage on defense, but Vujacic has the edge in experience, scrappiness, and long-range shooting.
Maurice N’dour—At 6-9 with a 7-4 wingspan, N’dour’s potential is palpable in today’s small-ball league. However, there won’t be much opportunity for him to show the NBA his skills as a rookie after he averaged 10 minutes per game playing overseas for Real Madrid last season. N’dour just turned 24 years old a few days ago too, so it’s not like he’s still a spring chicken. With that being said, the big man from Senegal has earned a guaranteed deal with the Knicks, and displayed some impressive talent in summer league action.
Marshall Plumlee—Plumlee didn’t fill up the box scores in summer league, but his deal is guaranteed for 2016-17. The Plumlee family (Marshall, Miles, and Mason) is currently the largest group of brothers in the NBA.
Ron Baker—His deal is the only one that’s non-guaranteed this year, so it’s possible Baker gets beaten out by another player for the team’s 15th and final roster spot. Still, Baker showed enough in summer league for Jackson to keep him around. After an ugly two-point (1-9 FG), three-turnover performance during the Knicks’ 81-49 loss in the opener in Orlando, Baker showed steady improvement over the next three games while showing a fairly well-rounded skillset. He scored 22 and 20 points respectively during the last two contests, draining eight threes combined as well. Baker would be wise to study Mike Dunleavy, who is one of the wisest players in NBA history.
*Salary cap information from spotrac.com
* Summer League stats from NBA.com
* Player measurements from DraftExpress.com
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