Are the Young Bucks Ready?

Milwaukee has one of the most exciting young cores in the NBA, and their development has been exciting, not only for Bucks fans, but fans all around the league. However, despite their promise and excitement, they haven’t had much success on the court yet. But with another year of development and a free agency that solidified the roster, are the Milwaukee Bucks a playoff threat this year?

Milwaukee’s 2015-16 season was ultimately a failure. After they surprised the league in Jason Kidd’s first season as coach two years ago by being one of the top defensive teams in the NBA and making the playoffs as a six seed, they finished 33-49 last season and their defense collapsed. Fans had hoped they could build off the success of that first year to reach even higher heights in year two of Kidd’s tenure, but instead they appeared to revert back to square one.

However, the season wasn’t an entire failure. The Milwaukee ownership and front office didn’t need to have their team in the playoffs last year, as the core of the team still had a long way to go in their development. The results were a failure, but the progress and success of certain players and play styles made the direction the team should take in the future a lot clearer than it was before the season began. Over the course of the 82 game season, several important truths for the Bucks future became apparent.

Giannis is the primary playmaker

Antetokounmpo doesn’t play like most 6-11 players with 7-3 wingspans. He is a guard in the body of a superhuman, and that was on full display in the second half of last season. He has always been most effective with the ball in his hands, but the Bucks weren’t overly willing to give him many opportunities through his first two and a half seasons. After the All-Star break, Kidd unofficially ordained Giannis as the point guard, and Antetokounmpo came to life more so than anyone expected. He combines height, length, speed, agility, ball handling, and vision into a point guard package that is terrifying to opponents. As a strong rebounder in the top-10 of rebound rate for small forwards, per ESPN, Antetokounmpo is especially deadly because he can grab a rebound himself and proceed to fly down the court with the ball, covering the distance in a unfathomably small amount of steps. In 28 games after the break, Giannis put up a staggering 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game, supported by five, yes five, triple doubles over a span of six weeks. Kidd announced Giannis will be the starting point guard next season, which really only applies to offense, but figuring out that these Bucks are at their best with Antetokounmpo in charge of making plays was a massive lesson for this team.

The core is Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Parker

This may seem obvious, and was already mostly an accepted theory before the season started, but the development of Parker and Middleton last season solidified them as critical to the Bucks future and essentially immovable for anything less than a superstar. Only a couple years ago, Khris Middleton was a throw-in for a trade involving Brandon Knight and Brandon Jennings. Now he is a top-five shooting guard in the entire NBA, and those other two players are mostly irrelevant. Middleton is a 6-8 shooting guard who shot 40 percent from three last year. He’s a great defender and a solid playmaker, recording 4.2 assists per game last year. He is also 24 years young, and his pre-salary cap spike extension decreases in annual value every year, making him one of the strongest assets in the league. Jabari Parker is the only one of the three that had star expectations coming into the league, but he has had an up and down start to his career. Parker’s rookie season started off solid, but it was cut short by an ACL tear that could’ve been a crucial blow to his development. He returned only a few games into the regular season, and looked even more explosive than he was before. However, he didn’t have much impact, averaging only 11.3 points per game coupled with atrocious defensive play. Much like Antetokounmpo, Parker broke out after the break, averaging 18.9 points per game. A big development for Parker was his assertiveness, jumping from 9.7 shots to 15.4 per game. The future of the Milwaukee Bucks lies in the development of Parker, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo.

Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe are not the core

The MCW, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Parker, Monroe lineup has some Milwaukee fans envisioning a top-four Eastern Conference finish. While many other fans were more realistic, everyone was disappointed in the result. As Antetokounmpo evolved into the primary creator of the team, the best fit at the normal point guard spot for the Bucks is a player who can defend opposing point guards, is a good shooter, and doesn’t need to be the main playmaker on the court. Carter-Williams is a good defender, but he is an awful shooter, and hasn’t show any interest in deferring to someone else to run the offense. The two aren’t necessarily cause-and-effect, but it isn’t a complete coincidence that MCW only played in five games after the All-Star break, the part of the season in which Point Giannis blossomed. The Bucks’ offseason moves also show they agree with my line of thinking for the point guard spot, as they signed Matthew Dellavedova, a good three-point shooter and defender who played off the ball on LeBron’s team. The drafting of Malcolm Brogdon in the second round, another player who is a good shooter that can defend point guards but doesn’t need the ball in his hands. It doesn’t sound like the Bucks are looking to move MCW, as both Kidd and GM John Hammond have expressed confidence in him, but the chance they took on him a couple seasons ago doesn’t look like it’s paying off. Greg Monroe was the big signing of last summer’s free agency. Wrestled away from the likes of the Knicks and the Lakers, Monroe was proof that a small market Milwaukee team could land big free agents. Unfortunately for them, they probably would’ve been better off if Monroe has chosen someone else. Replacing Pachulia from last year with Monroe was a big factor in the demise of Milwaukee’s defense. He was slow on rotations and in defending the pick and roll, in addition to not being a big blocker or defensive rebounder due to his grounded playing style. And on offense, Monroe’s game is largely limited to post ups. While he was a willing and able passer out of the post to cuts from Antetokounmpo and Parker, Monroe being on the floor alongside the non-shooting MCW, Giannis, and Parker killed spacing. Milwaukee’s big three proved to be extremely talented in scoring the ball in ways much more efficient for the modern NBA than Monroe, so his services became rather unneeded. With the recent extension of Miles Plumlee, the Bucks have $42 million dollars tied up in Monroe, Plumlee, and John Henson, and it is no secret that Greg Monroe is now readily available for trade. Regardless of whether they are still on the roster this year, MCW and Monroe’s days in Milwaukee are numbered.

So how do the Bucks look for this season? Can they get back to the playoffs?

They definitely can reach the playoffs, but it is by no means certain. A big portion of their chances comes down to the continued progress of the core three. If Antetokounmpo and Parker maintain and/or exceed their post All-Star break numbers, this team is dangerous. Outside of the core, their offseason additions should address their biggest weakness last year: shooting. Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic are both 40 percent three point shooters, and should hopefully provide much better spacing and improve a bench that was dismal last season. If Brogdon and last year’s first round pick, Rashad Vaughn, can find their stroke, it would be big for raising the bench play. But their shooting performances in Summer League weren’t very encouraging. Right now, there is absolutely a logjam at center, but I find it hard to believe Monroe will be wearing a Bucks jersey at the beginning of the year. His value is certainly low, but trading him and rolling with Henson and Plumlee with Thon Maker getting spot minutes should help the defense pull it together and enable the core three to thrive offensively.

In conclusion, the Bucks could make the playoffs if they perform well and put it all together, and they could miss the playoffs if they don’t perform well and can’t put it together. Of course, this is oversimplifying the matter at hand, but as with all young teams, the development and progress of the players is mostly unknown. Nevertheless, this team is brimming with talent that is only a couple steps away from stardom, and the rest of the East should be taking notice of the Young Bucks.