This past year, the franchises that fell the farthest were Houston (second to eighth), Milwaukee (sixth to 12th), and Chicago (third to ninth). Which will take the biggest fall within its conference during 2016-17? Our writers weighed in.
Gabriel Allen: Miami. The Heat and Thunder each finished with the third-best record in their respective conference during 2015-16, and both clubs lost a ton of talent in free agency. After climbing from 10th to third this past year, Miami may be headed back to the 10-spot (or worse) in 2016-17. I could still see the Heat earning the the eighth seed in the East even if Chris Bosh remains sidelined, but OKC seems like the better bet to stay in the playoff picture.
Matt Sexton: Houston. Between the Dwight Howard and Ty Lawson experiments, the Rockets have shown an inability to work upper-tier talent into lineups with Harden. Ever since their ballsy defeat of the Clippers (largely on the shoulders of the Smith/Howard tandem) this team has floundered. While adding several shooters bodes well for open space and Harden’s statlines, the team still doesn’t have an adequate distributor besides “the Beard.” With up-and-comers like the Pelicans, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Jazz trailing Houston in last years standings, a big shuffle is eminent.
Josh Cornelissen: Chicago – That’s right, the fallers fall harder! The Bulls shuffled a deck of aging cards, swapping out veterans such as Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, and Derrick Rose for Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, and Robin Lopez. The problem is that none of those new players can shoot or play defense anymore. While the Bulls have a handful of intriguing young players ready to enter the rotation, they won’t help this team win next season. When Wade is sitting out for two weeks to rest his knees and the team is dropping further and further back in the standings, Chicago may decide to tear things down and send out veterans such as Taj Gibson for picks and young talent. That would result in a freefall to the waiting room right above Brooklyn for worst in the East. This organization has too much pride – and too much Jimmy Butler – to truly fall apart, but they are trying to build a tower with round blocks. The rest of the East will see gradual adjustments, but the Bulls could hit rock bottom and drop another four or five spots in the East.
Daniel Coughlin: Oklahoma City Thunder – Did you hear that Kevin Durant doesn’t play for the Thunder anymore? The popular theory, one that I hope is right, states Russell Westbrook is about to go nuclear on every team he faces. He might even average a triple-double and power up, revealing his true Frieza-esque form. Even if he does this, he’ll be without Dion Waiters, KD and Serge Ibaka. Steven Adams is great and Kanter is serviceable, at least on offense, but I cannot be convinced that Billy Donovan can lose the players he has, replace them with Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis and hit 55 wins again. The top of the West is going to stay on top and each team that finished between No. 5 and No. 11 figures to be as good or better than they were last season for the most part. They may not drop out of the playoffs altogether, but sliding by as much as 10 wins is a real possibility.
Ilia Shatashvili: OKC- I’m not picking them to maybe miss the playoffs, I’m picking them to definitely miss the playoffs. When you lose a player as great as Kevin Durant, you pay the price in wins and losses. They lost “the servant,” “Iblaka,” and Waiters Island, and face the prospect of trading Westbrook midseason unless he agrees to an extension. Watching an Oladipo-Westbrook backcourt will certainly entertain and Steven Adams and Enes Kanter will give them production in the paint, but being competitive and losing is still losing. The last time the Thunder were without Durant due to injury they missed the playoffs. It’s going to happen again. Only this time, they may end up being without Durant, Ibaka, and Westbrook when all is said and done.
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