There was a long-standing sentiment among Wizards fans that centered around one man that they believed was a major factor in the future fortunes of their team. Heading into 2015-16, Washington was facing a fork in the road and it centered, primarily around this one man – Kevin Durant. Instead, that one person probably should have been Randy Wittman. Neither is currently in Washington, but what about the future of the new coach and the roster they have in place?
You can be forgiven if you thought this was a lead-in on the Kevin Durant saga and the whole “KD2DC” movement, it was not. Like many, I never believed that Durant was going to end up in DC. There are probably a lot of signs that should’ve been obvious to all, but that is easy with hindsight.
The biggest hurdle that faced Washington wasn’t the player that was never a Wizard; it was the roster and coaching that was already in place.
Things weren’t always bleak with Wittman; there was some adulation mixed in with all the frustration. He was around for quite a long time, joining the Wizards coaching staff as an assistant in 2009. After two plus seasons in a supporting role, Wittman took over the head coaching duties from the late Flip Saunders. After a few seasons, the Wizards were headed in the right direction. John Wall, drafted the year before Wittman became head coach, was quickly evolving into one of the best point guards in the Eastern Conference. In their first winning season under Wittman, 2013-14, Wall led the league in total assists (721) and was a first-time All-Star. That squad also had second-year guard, Bradley Beal. This dynamic young backcourt duo was anchored by a veteran in Andre Miller along with vets in the frontcourt.
The team finished with a record of 44-38 that season, a 15-win improvement over Wittman’s first full season in charge. Ultimately, Washington advanced to the second round of the playoffs before being eliminated by the Indiana Pacers. The season seemed to be an affirmation of the dealings of their front office. Since Wittman had taken control, the win totals had improved each season, and the five-year max extension given to John Wall leading into the 2013-14 season was immediately proven to be the right move.
Things got better for the Wizards in 2014-15 as they added savvy veteran, Paul Pierce. Beal was also improving, shooting a career-best 40.9 percent from three-point range that season. Washington was rolling and they improved their win total from the prior season, moving to 46-36. Again, they fell in six games in the second round of the playoffs; this time they were bested by the Atlanta Hawks.
Washington could still hold their heads high. They had a team with back-to-back winning records, one of the 10 or so best backcourt duos in the league and supreme confidence that they were a top destination for Durant.
Then things started to fall apart. Sure, 2015-16 was a banner year for Wall. He continued to grow his game and assert himself as one of the best point guards in the league while still improving. Last year, he averaged career-best numbers in his three-point shooting (35.1 percent), points per game (19.9), assists (10.2), and steals (1.9). Elsewhere, it was starting to look worse.
After some incredible post-season heroics, Pierce moved on, choosing to reunite with his former coach, Doc Rivers, by joining the Los Angeles Clippers. And then Beal had the misfortune of experiencing an injury that most did not know existed – a sprained pelvis. That injury, which effectively ended Beal’s season on March 5, was just added to the insult of a picture that had clearly emerged regarding their future – this isn’t a team that is going to be able to lure Durant away from the Thunder.
That brings it all back to Wittman. After so many years with the team, there just wasn’t a next level for them to reach playing the kind of game that Wittman wanted them to play. Sadly, this was clear before a “lost” season that eliminated both their hopes of getting past the second round of the playoffs and landing the marquee free agent we formerly knew as the Slim Reaper.
Pace was a big issue under Wittman. The team was 18th in pace both years they reached the playoffs and bumped up to fifth in pace last year. Unfortunately, the efficiency wasn’t there even when the pace was present, and the Wizards sat at 20th in the league in offensive rating.
Nothing is always all on a coach. That is why I say that one of the primary issues in Washington was Wittman, but it wasn’t all on him. Still, when they decided to part ways with their head coach, it was the right decision.
Enter Scott Brooks.
A lot was made of the new hire, particularly the notion that this move was made as part of a ploy to get Durant to consider a move to Washington. Of course, if that was their intention it was rather unsuccessful. Still, Brooks presents a significant upgrade over Wittman. Whatever deficiencies Brooks may possess, they do not rival the out-of-touch and out-of-date tactics of his predecessor.
The Wizards had another signing in mind for the 2016 off-season. Despite missing 27 games due to injury, Beal was signed to an extension this week. The deal is another five-year max, which won’t have a finalized number under the official salary cap is announced, which will be very soon. Beal is a great scorer, even for such a young player, and he compliments Wall quite well. Beal needs clean looks and Wall loves producing assists.
There were other good moves that happened during the summer. The aging frontcourt of Washington needed some work. Out with Nene, in with Ian Mahinmi. They signed another intriguing role, limited minutes player in Andrew Nicholson and traded a future second-round pick for Trey Burke. Burke makes for a fascinating player with upside potential and also serves as a great backup at point, capable of moving over in a limited role as a type of insurance should Beal have any issues recovering from his pelvic strain. The Wizards drafted another guard, Tomas Satoransky, who could see useful minutes at some point. Like a lot of European imports, the Czech baller came across the Atlantic from FC Barcelona with a great deal of intrigue and the belief that he has the intangibles to stick in the league.
The additions of Burke, Mahinmi, Nicholson, and Satoransky are solid, though Washington had been aiming higher on the free agent market. They were spurned in their efforts to draw in Zaza Pachulia, Miroslav Raduljica, Alan Anderson and letting go of Jared Dudley. All of this is in addition to the bitter loss of any hope they might sign Durant and a failed attempt to lure Al Horford, who ended up with the Boston Celtics.
The bad year that was for Washington wasn’t a fluke. They failed to capitalize on 42 percent shooting from three-point range by Dudley and a career-year from Wall. The team was aging and growing irrelevant in various areas, including coaching and the frontcourt.
Mahinmi isn’t a young player, but he is younger and at a better stage of his career than Nene. Nicholson will add good depth at forward. Burke and Satoransky aren’t going to change the NBA, but they should add some level of reliable depth for the guard position, particularly if one of the two stars in the Washington backcourt goes down with injury for any extended period of time.
Beyond the players on the court, the coaching of Wittman wasn’t going to get this team to the next level. He left a lot of passionate and knowledgeable bloggers and journalists utterly confused and frustrated repeatedly during his tenure. Not every coach is subject to the Larry Bird Rule of Three, but not every coach can have aura and command the respect of players like Gregg Popovich.
As the team heads into 2016-17, they are better than they were last year if they are healthy. A full season of Beal and Wall is always going to be better than a season where either of those players misses 25 games or more. Gortat and Mahinmi could pair nicely in the frontcourt with Markieff Morris and Andrew Nicholson. Sandwiched between is the Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre, Jr. position with Satoransky and re-signed Marcus Thornton available to pick up whatever scrap minutes are left over. The team isn’t super deep, but they have enough to carry on in the Eastern Conference.
Again, 2015-16 wasn’t a fluke. The team had injuries, was aging, and was not coached particularly well. Yet, they still finished the season at 41-41, a train wreck that was still better than the Chicago Bulls and not nearly as regressive as the Milwaukee Bucks.
The situation in Washington is a lot like a house of cards right now. They have all the pieces, but can the pieces produce? Brooks might be the biggest question mark here, coming off a gig where he had the luxury (headache?) of coaching Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka and nearly made it all the way to a championship in 2012. The East is the skinny little brother of the West, but the middle grouping of the conference is starting to get really thick similarly talented teams. Despite having Wall, Beal, Mahinmi, Porter, Oubre Jr., Morris, Burke and the rest, there is going to be a lot of work to do if they want to get into the playoffs and any imbalance of health, good coaching, and consistently great performances from their star players will bring the whole thing down.
The short-term future looks good for the Wizards. They need to be present in the here and now. They were already caught looking to the future once with Durant, looking over the Wittman situation that needed resolution. They have three more seasons with Wall and Beal, after which Wall can hit free agency. He most likely will explore that and he should. Washington needs to be present and make the most of what they have with Wall right now or in three years they’ll be stuck wondering what might have been, closer to rebuilding than contention.
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