Josh Freeman- Regressing? or a victim of circumstances?

reaction |rēˈakSHən|noun: an action performed or a feeling experienced in response to a situation or event:

Fans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do a lot of it; when the team wins, all is forgiven. But should the team lose, fans call in on Monday with  every ill the Bucs have, real or not.
Lack of free agents, always a key problem Monday after a loss, but not after a win. Our Wide receivers cannot get separation after a loss, but they separate just fine during a win.(Mind you both Mike Williams and Dezmon Briscoe both had 75 yards receiving each, thats separating just fine, especially Briscoe’s TD, no one was around him.freeman

My favorite is the playcalling. The playcalling is always horrible after a loss, especially on a particular play when the result is a failed 3rd down attempt or TD. It is Monday Morning QBing at its best: The RESULT of the play determines whether or not the play call was a good one or not. Which is completely silly, there is absolutely no such thing as a good or bad play call, only one that was executed properly or not. If it’s 3rd and inches, a running play is a solid bet to convert, but a pass play is solid bet to trick the defense. There is no bad play call, only bad execution. Even a deep pass down the sideline is a risk, but not a bad play call.

But there is another type of reaction at play here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that is the reaction to, of, and by, QB  Josh Freeman. 

TO: Reaction to Josh Freeman is no different than fan reaction to a win or loss. Win the game, and Josh Freeman is the best QB the NFL has ever seen. “Wow what a future this kid has”, lose the game, and it’s a quite different “Remember, the word coming out of college was that he was inaccurate”. So what QB is Josh Freeman? Is he the guy who put aside his college inconsistancies and is in the process of turning things around, or the guy from Kansas State that everyone was so upset with the Bucs for making the move up to get him. The answer of course, is somewhere in between. 

OF: The reactions of Josh Freeman BY Josh Freeman also vary, but here is the one part of the post that Freeman has NO control over. To answer the question, we have to dig into what type of QB the Bucs drafted in Josh Freeman.

Freeman DOES have some accuracy issues. No matter, every QB does to some degree, and while some QBs like Bruce Gradkowski have great accuracy, they dont have the velocity on the ball like Freeman has. Josh Freeman has the strength to get that ball in there in a hurry before the window closes, and thats why we have Wide Receivers catching the ball, not just moving targets. Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss made careers out of catching b alls that were in their “WINDOW” of catchability. Freeman can get that ball in that window no problem.

Josh Freeman was drafted to give the Bucs a passing game to COMPLIMENT its running game. Well, kind of vice versa most times. Freeman’s strength is throwing the play-action pass. It’s the basis of every big play the Bucs completed last year in their 2010 season. All together now, whats the key ingredient to a play-action fake? The PLAY ACTION! When Earnest Graham went down with injury, everyone and their nearest and dearest relative on the Chicago Bears staff knew the Bucs would have absolutely no threat to run the ball. You take out Kregg Lumpkin’s one 13 yard run, he ended up with 7 more runs for 2 yards. 

So lets throw reactions out of the window, and look at results.
GAMES FREEMAN has STRUGGLES
DETROIT- 28 of 43 255 yards 1TD 1 INT 65%
Blount 15 yards, Graham 13 yards
RESULT– LOSS

Please click the READ MORE button to see all the numbers and finish this post.

1st Half MINNESOTA 7 of 11 52  0 TD 0 int   63%
Graham 7  Blount 4
Result- 0-17 Minnesota

SAN FRANCISCO 17 of 33 187 0TD 2INT 51%
Blount 34, Graham 30
RESULT-LOSS

CHICAGO 29 of 51 264 2 TD 4 INT   57% 
Lumpkin 15 yards, Graham 13 yards
RESULT- LOSS

GAMES FREEMAN PLAYED WELL 

2nd Half MINNESOTA-  15 of 20 191  1TD  1int  75%
Blount 67 Graham 11
RESULT- Bucs 24- 3

ATLANTA- 22 of 32 180 0 TD 2 int   68%
Blount 81  Freeman 35
RESULT- WIN

INDIANAPOLIS- 25 of 39 287 1TD 0 int  64% 
Blount 127  Graham 24
RESULT WIN

NEW ORLEANS-  23 of 41 303 2TDs 0 int   56%
Graham 108 Lumpkin 13
RESULT WIN

So when we look at the Total Numbers, When Josh Freeman has a running game working, he is 85 of 132 64% for 961 yards 4 TDs and 3 Interceptions. When there is no running game, Freeman is 29 of 138 which is 52%. 758 yards, 3 TDs and 7 Interceptions. Amazing, almost the same number of attempts in 3.5 games, but more than DOUBLE the completions when there is a running game. 

Last season, after the first 7 games of the year, the Bucs had not yet fully discovered LeGarrette Blount. Actually, it was the 7th game he became the full time starter, the @Arizona Game. The Numbers are almost exactly the same.

1)Cleveland- 120 yards rushing off 3 players, Freeman goes 17 of 28 182 1int 2 TDs
2)@Carolina- 95 rushing yards from 3 players, Freeman goes 12 of 24 178 0int 2 TDs
4)@Cincinnati- 128 rushing from 3 players, Freeman goes 20 of 33 280 1int 1TD
6)St.Louis- 124 rushing yards from 3 players, Freeman goes 23 of 40 212 0int 1TD
7)@Arizona- 142 rushing yards, 120 from Blount, Freeman goes 18 of 25 267 0int 1TD
Total 7 TDs 2 INTs record 5-0

3)Pittsburgh- 57 rushing yards from 3 runners, Freeman goes 20 of 31 184 1int 0TD
5)New Orleans- 38 rushing yards from 3 runners, Freeman goes 25 of 43 219 0 int 1 TD
Total- 1INT 1 TD  record 0-2

Everyone is saying Josh Freeman has regressed from last year, yet these numbers show he has not, he is right on pace from last year. When he has no running game to support him, he does not have as many completions, lower TDs, and higher Interceptions. When the Bucs run the football succesfully, he throws more TDs, more yards, and less Interceptions. These numbers do not lie, the only difference are the circumstances. Last year the Bucs did not have a good running game until LeGarrette Blount was discovered and given the ball on a regular basis. This season, when Blount started to run like he did last year, Josh Freeman reciprocated. 

Last year after the 9th game of the year, Freeman had thrown 10 Touchdowns and 5 Interceptions. Good Numbers, but nothing crazy. It was down the stretch, from week 10 through 16, That Freeman threw 15 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Get LeGarrette Blount back healthy during the Bye week, and keep him that way, establish the run, and Freeman’s numbers, and the subsequent wins, will fall into place. 

If Tampa Bay cannot establish a running game this year, then it will be full Air Freeman, and thats a recipe for disaster. 

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