Bracketology 28 Oct

Let’s do this thing

Only four weeks remain until Selection Sunday. It's time for teams to start solidifying their bids, and make the job as easy as possible for selection committee. You don't want to be in the position of having the committee have to hem and haw about your place in the field. That's not good for anything.

The biggest match this week was, without a doubt, the return engagement between Penn State and Nebraska, this time on Nebraska's home court. After Penn State won their first match in four sets, the Huskers prevailed in five this week. That shouldn't have too big an effect on the national picture, though. I'm not sure it'll even cost Penn State the #1 national ranking in tomorrow's polls, but with Stanford holding home court against the Arizona schools this week, I've dropped the Nittany Lions to the 2-line. The Huskers certainly get a lot of credit for beating Penn State, but falling to Ohio State on their home court just two days earlier negates a lot of it and may even tip the scales the other way.

Over in the Pac-12, the suddenly-freefalling Washington Huskies plummet down the seeds this week after losses against the LA schools make them 1-4 in their last five matches. Santa Clara continues to make it a remarkable year for the West Coast Conference by beating San Diego. The loss drops the Toreros from the seeds, but it might solidify the WCC as a five-bid league. You'll notice I have yet a sixth WCC team, Loyola Marymount, within shouting distance. That really speaks to how weak the power six have been once you get past the heads of state.

SEEDS

1. Stanford
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
4. Nebraska
5. Texas
6. UCLA
7. Louisville
8. USC
9. Washington
10. Minnesota
11. Hawaii
12. Kansas State
13. Florida State
14. Florida
15. Purdue
16. Miami

LAST FOUR TEAMS IN

1. Michigan
2. Bowling Green
3. Wichita State
4. San Diego State

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT

1. Clemson
2. Southern Illinois
3. Georgia Tech
4. Virginia Tech

NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT

1. Loyola Marymount
2. Colorado
3. Northwestern
4. VCU

CALIFORNIA REGIONAL

(1) Stanford vs. Colgate
Notre Dame vs. Creighton

BYU vs. UNLV
(16) Miami vs. Morehead State

(9) Washington vs. Albany
Texas A&M vs. Michigan

Dayton vs. Colorado State
(8) USC vs. Yale

NEBRASKA REGIONAL

(5) UCLA vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore
North Carolina vs. Missouri

Pepperdine vs. Wichita State
(12) Hawaii vs. Utah State

(13) Kansas State vs. Sam Houston State
Pepperdine vs. San Diego State

Oklahoma vs. Santa Clara
(4) Nebraska vs. Jackson State

TEXAS REGIONAL

(3) Oregon vs. Florida-Gulf Coast
Arkansas vs. St. Mary's

Ohio State vs. Tulsa
(14) Florida State vs. Portland State

(11) Florida vs. College of Charleston/Georgia Southern (they remain exactly tied)
Western Kentucky vs. Bowling Green (cute matchup here, as Western Kentucky's campus is in Bowling Green, Kentucky {BGSU is in Ohio})

Tennessee vs. Marquette
(6) Texas vs. Liberty

PURDUE REGIONAL

(7) Louisville vs. LIU-Brooklyn
Kentucky vs. Michigan State

Iowa State vs. Ohio
(10) Minnesota vs. Cleveland State

(15) Purdue vs. Colorado State
Kansas vs. IPFW

Northern Iowa vs. North Carolina State
(2) Penn State vs. Fairfield

CONFERENCES BY NUMBER OF BIDS

7 – Big Ten
6 – Southeastern
5 – Pac 12, Big 12, West Coast
4 – Atlantic Coast
3 – Big East, Mountain West, Missouri Valley
2 – Mid-American
1 – other 21 conferences

I think I'm gradually honing in on it. This is my best bracket yet, and it's probably no coincidence that that happens as I'm spreading the at-larges out around the mid-majors. I'd really like to see the Pac 12 get more than just their five titans in, but Oregon State, Cal, and Colorado are all making it very difficult for anyone to think them worthy of inclusion (to the point where freaking Arizona would merit mention among them). Another team that drops off the radar is Illinois — no matter how difficult your schedule is, if you drop two matches below .500, you're not an NCAA tournament team. I feel much more comfortable giving the Big Ten seven bids rather than eight, even though the lesser Big Ten schools (the Michigan schools, basically) don't figure to set the world on fire, either.

It'll be interesting to see the polls tomorrow and see what punishment is meted out to Penn State for their five-set road loss to the #4 team in the country. Since Stanford won both of their matches this week, I expect they'll be the new #1 team, but it's not impossible that Penn State could keep it, and they certainly shouldn't fall any further than #2.