Volleyball bracketology for 11/19

It really is the final countdown. Just six days left until Selection Sunday. Most of the automatic bids have already been handed out. A few more get doled out on Wednesday, and I’ll do another bracketology after Wednesday’s action (whether it ends up posting late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, I’m not sure). And then the last one will go up late Saturday night/early Sunday morning in advance of the selection show later Sunday afternoon.

The big result of the past week is definitely Stanford’s four-set loss at USC, the Cardinal’s first loss of the Pac-12 season, snapping an overall 22-match winning streak. I still think they’re the best team in the nation, but I’ve dropped them to the 2-line for this bracket. Penn State has continued to win, putting them back on top, but just as importantly Stanford on the 2-line solves a lot of logistical problems for the S-curve further downstream. I’ll be a little bit surprised if they aren’t the 2-seed come Selection Sunday. Despite this loss, the Cardinal rebounded to knock off UCLA, also in four sets, to clinch the Pac-12 championship. I also have Nebraska a little lower-seeded than I think they’d truly deserve in order to accommodate the S-curve. Cal sneaks into the bracket largely at the expense of Santa Clara. The Broncos seemed like a tournament team much of the year, but after dropping their final three matches, without taking even a set in the process, they’re on the outside looking in now. And their season is over.

I can’t really decide the last at-large slot out of the ACC, whether it’s Clemson or Georgia Tech. Both have good, not great tournament resumes. Both could make it and not be aberrations, and both could miss out and have no real excuse to complain. As it just so happens, they play each other this week. Whether the selection committee sees it as a defacto play-in match like I do or not, it’s indisputable that whoever wins will have a big leg up on the other towards getting an at-large bid. I can’t see how both of them make it in, so it’s a big match indeed.

There have been five statistical upsets so far in conference tournaments, with College of Charleston, East Tennessee State, Hofstra, Belmont, and Binghamton gaining automatic bids despite not winning their conferences in the regular season (though Charleston did have the SoCon’s best RPI). Belmont’s win removes what would have been one of my few first-round upset picks in Morehead State. But of the five, Binghamton is by far the biggest upset, with an RPI of 250. For reference, Jackson State, of the much-maligned (by me) SWAC have an RPI of 252. So congratulations, Binghamton. You get to go get dismembered by Penn State, Stanford, or Texas (Stanford in my bracket).

So let’s get to it. Underlined teams have automatic bids.

SEEDS

1. Penn State

2. Stanford

3. Texas

4. Washington

5. Louisville

6. USC

7. UCLA

8. Florida

9. Oregon

10. Hawaii

11. Minnesota

12. Nebraska

13. Florida State

14. Ohio State

15. Dayton

16. BYU

LAST FOUR TEAMS IN:

1. Wichita State

2. Georgia Tech/Clemson

3. Arizona State

4. California

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT:

1. Georgia Tech/Clemson

2. Northwestern

3. Santa Clara

4. Southern Illinois

NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT:

1. Ohio

2. Towson

3. Baylor

4. Morehead State

PURDUE REGIONAL:

(1) Penn State vs. Jackson State

Arkansas vs. Pepperdine

Purdue vs. Tulsa

(16) BYU vs. IPFW

(9) Oregon vs. LIU-Brooklyn

North Carolina vs. San Diego State

Kansas State vs. Missouri

(8) Florida vs. East Tennessee State

NEBRASKA REGIONAL:

(5) Louisville vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore

Creighton vs. Colorado State

Iowa State vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson

(12) Nebraska vs. College of Charleston

(13) Florida State vs. Portland State

Western Kentucky vs. Arizona State

Northern Iowa vs. Michigan

(4) Washington vs. Belmont

TEXAS REGIONAL:

(3) Texas vs. Colgate

Notre Dame vs. Kentucky

Miami (FL) vs. Central Arkansas

(14) Ohio State vs. Cleveland State

(11) Minnesota vs. Utah State

Texas A&M vs. Wichita State

Marquette vs. St. Mary’s

(6) USC vs. Hofstra

CALIFORNIA REGIONAL:

(7) UCLA vs. Fairfield

Tennessee vs. North Carolina State

San Diego vs. Bowling Green

(10) Hawaii vs. Liberty

(15) Dayton vs. Yale

Kansas vs. California

Michigan State vs. Oklahoma

(2) Stanford vs. Binghamton

CONFERENCES BY NUMBER OF BIDS

7 – Big Ten, Pac-12

6 – Southeastern

5 – Atlantic Coast, Big 12

4 – West Coast

3 – Big East, Missouri Valley

2 – Mountain West

1 – Other 22 conferences

Pretty sure this is my most reliable bracket to date, though in fairness it kinda should be, since we’ve got automatic qualifiers for the first time. But everyone’s where they need to be, and nothing sticks out as obviously wrong (except maybe Arizona State…still not sure about that). Now I await the rest of this week to completely screw it up 😉