Did the committee like the WCC or what?
I thought I was pushing it giving them five for a few weeks, and then I thought for sure Santa Clara played themselves out by losing nine straight sets to end their regular season. I briefly toyed with the idea of including Loyola Marymount, having them in one of my 'first four out' slots for a time, but I never really thought of them as contenders. Wow.
And in another case of 'the committee liked it even more than I did,' Kentucky gets a seed? Wow indeed. This is a team I quite like, but I figured they were on the bubble to even make the tournament at all. Now they get a first and prospective second-round match at home.
I had Iowa State as the highest-ranked non-seeded team in my last bracketology, so them at #15 is no surprise. Kansas are a fair bit higher-ranked than I had them, though I probably had them underrated, honestly. The surprise team excluded from the seeds to account for Kentucky's surprise inclusion is Hawaii. Guess the committee thought nothing of the garbage Big West. I didn't think I did, either.
The committee also didn't seem to care much for Dayton. But I got the other 13 of 16 seeded teams correct. Washington's seed seems rather low, but they can't protest too much with how their season ended. Plus, it puts them in the Nebraska regional, which means they don't have to worry about Penn State, Stanford, or Texas prior to Louisville.
Oh, and Louisville….yeah, 10 seems awfully low for them. The committee had no reason to love the Big East, but it is a power conference and Louisville damn near ran the table in it. I would have had them higher. Nebraska are egregiously over-seeded, though in fairness they do merit a seed, and they had to be put in their home regional. Their home regional wasn't bound to have the 8, 9, or 10 seed they'd probably deserve. So the choice was either to up them to the 4 or 5-line or drop them to the 12 or 13-line. Neither option is necessarily much better than the other.
All in all, though, my bracketology was not half bad. I only had 2 teams in the field that didn't actually make it. I'm mildly surprised that Clemson were excluded, and I guess they'd qualify as the 'biggest snub,' but if Clemson are your biggest snub, the committee did a fine job. Thought the win over Notre Dame would put Ohio over the top, but the committee actually gave both of these bids to the WCC. The highest-ranked team in the RPI that isn't in the tournament field is Illinois at 37, though with a sub-.500 record the Illini were not eligible for an at-large bid anyway. The highest-ranked eligible team to be excluded is Arizona at 50, and who the heck had Arizona in? Anyone? Ohio and Clemson, by the way, were 52 and 55.
In terms of the bracket itself, Penn State have a pretty clear road to at least the Elite Eight. I don't see anybody in the top half of that regional challenging them. Minnesota, if they're on top of their game, could give them trouble in the Elite Eight, but bear in mind that the Nittany Lions won both regular season matches between the two sides and dropped just one set in the process. Florida State are over-seeded and should they even make the Elite Eight, I wouldn't expect them to cause trouble for Penn State.
The Nebraska regional might be your best bet for an upset. All four seeded teams in it have at times this season looked brilliant, while also looking vulnerable at times. Nebraska might even have their hands full prior to the regional round with either Kansas State or Northern Iowa. Both teams enter the tournament on a downswing, but have been really good at times earlier in the year. It's exceedingly likely all 16 seeded teams will win in the first round (they usually do), but the one first round matchup where I think a seeded team miiiiiiiight fall is Washington vs. Central Arkansas. Now, Washington are perfectly capable of winning by 10 or more points each set, but they're also capable of laying an egg. Central Arkansas, out of the 'doesn't sound like much' Southland Conference, had the second-highest RPI of any team whose league got only one bid (49 to Conference USA champions Tulsa's 47), and I would have considered them as an at-large should they have needed one. Push-to-shove, I'm going with Oregon to emerge here.
Texas have got a big potential match waiting for them in the Sweet 16 with under-seeded Florida. Then if they get past that, either USC or Kansas could give them serious trouble in a regional final as well. The Texas regional's pretty stacked, though I think Cal is the hardest one. Texas are in that position where it seems silly to actually predict against them, because they are such a good team, but you can't be surprised either if they do falter and fail to make it to Louisville.
As for Louisville, apparently regular-season rematches are okay, because they get another go with Belmont, after they beat the Bruins in straight sets just two days ago. I guess the only rule is no conference matches until the Sweet 16. Don't discount Iowa State from this regional, either. They just defeated Texas in five sets to close out the Big 12 season, and they'll give Stanford quite a fight should they meet in the Sweet 16. And UCLA were number one in the nation for a few weeks this season. Oh, whoever comes out of here will earn it. No question. And there's some good teams away from the seed lines (particularly Tennessee and North Carolina), but they're not toppling the giants with numbers next to their names.
Should be an amazing tournament, and I can't wait to see what the next twists and turns in this season's story are!
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