Quick set: MPSF playoff picture

Stanford coach John Kosty has referred to his team’s 19-day layoff, as mentioned in the hypothetical vote post, as the ‘midpoint’ of their season. Even though it’s more like 2/3 of the way through the season than 1/2, that piqued my interest to do a quick run-down of the MPSF postseason picture. Here’s the current, up-to-the-moment conference standings (records given are conference records):

1. BYU 14-2
2. UC Irvine 13-4
3. Long Beach St. 12-4
4. Pepperdine 9-6
5. UCLA 9-7
6. CSU Northridge 8-6
7. Stanford 9-8
8. UCSB 7-10
9. Hawaii 6-10
10. Cal Baptist 5-9
11. USC 4-11
12. Pacific 3-12
13. UC San Diego 3-13

The bottom three teams are almost certainly out of it, and Hawaii probably would have been too if they hadn’t come up with a W tonight. Some of the differences in rankings here are trivial, for instance Hawaii. A 6-10 record is percentage points better than a 5-9 record, but we won’t have to consider that at season’s send since obviously everyone will end up playing the same number of conference matches. But it’s a glimpse at it. The second part to take in mind is the upcoming schedules. It seems fair to break it into three segments (well, four, but the fourth is the teams who are out of it, so I’m not going to include them). We’ve got

In the running for semis and finals home court

BYU – @CSUN, @LBSU, vs. PEP, vs. USC, @UCSB, @UCLA, @PAC, @STAN. After that comeback at UCI 2 weeks ago I’m not gonna say anything’s impossible, but I can’t see how they run the table against so many quality opponents on the road. That last match of the season with Stanford might end up with a lot riding on it.

UCI – @PEP, @USC, vs. UCLA, vs. UCSD, vs. STAN, vs. PAC, vs. CSUN (also have a non-conference match vs. Penn State before the playoffs). Clear advantage UCI here in terms of remaining schedule. Not quite as hard of opponents, and home cookin’ for the final month of the regular season can only be a plus.

LBSU – vs. UCLA, vs. CBU, vs. BYU, @PAC, @STAN, @USC, @PEP, vs. CSUN (two non-conference home matches in this stretch as well). Long Beach had a weird schedule this season, with a long road trip, a really long home stretch, and then another long road trip basically the long and short of it. It’s an uphill battle for them to finish any higher than their current position of third, though one notes that if they’re able to knock off BYU at home they’ll hold any tiebreaker with the Cougars.

Playing for seeding

PEP – vs. UCI, vs. UCSD, @USC, @BYU, @CBU, vs. CSUN, vs. LBSU, @UCLA, @UCSB. Fairly balanced schedule, with the needle tipping maybe a touch to the side of ‘hard’ rather than ‘easy’ as it’s five on the road versus four at home, and they still have to play all three of the conference’s top teams (but still get bottom-dweller UCSD at home).

UCLA – @LBSU, @CSUN, @UCSD, @UCI, vs. CBU, vs. BYU, vs. PEP, vs. USC. Pretty tough the rest of the way for the Bruins, as the easiest match they have left is probably their last one of the year, and you know USC will bring it for the rivalry match (and the chance to play spoiler). Other than that, the road match with UCSD is probably next-easiest, and everything else looks potentially losable.

CSUN – @UCSB, vs. UCLA, vs. CBU, vs. BYU, @STAN, @PAC, @PEP, @USC, @UCI, @LBSU. Doesn’t start off that hard, but boy the Matadors have their work cut out for them on their final road trip of the year. They shouldn’t have to worry about making the tournament altogether, but that crushingly difficult stretch probably will cost them any chance of a first-round home match.

STAN – vs. CSUN, vs. LBSU, @PAC, @UCI, @UCSD, vs. CBU, vs. BYU. Stanford have a good shot at improving their seed, as they have only three road dates left and two of them are with the bottom two teams in the conference.

Hanging by a thread

UCSB – vs. CSUN, @HAW (x2), @CBU, vs. BYU, vs. USC, vs. PEP (also a non-conference match with Harvard in this stretch) Tough opponents the rest of the way for the Gauchos, though they get most of them at home. The Hawaii double-shot is obviously crucial.

HAW – @CBU (x2), vs. PAC (x2), vs. UCSB (x2), @ UCSD (x2). Hawaii have the easiest remaining schedule of anyone in the MPSF, and have to be cautiously optimistic about their chances to make it in. They’ve got four matches against the conference’s weakest teams, and get home court for the big double-shot with Santa Barbara.

CBU – vs. HAW (x2), @CSUN, @LBSU, vs. USC, vs. PEP, vs. UCSB, @UCLA, @STAN, @PAC. The fact that we’re even talking about Cal Baptist at all this late on in the season is itself impressive. They’ve got an uphill climb to make the playoffs, but here’s hoping they’ve opened the eyes of a few recruits with their season to date.