The defending champions will be in Los Angeles to try to win their second title in a row, and what would be their fourth since 2007. Their task is NCAA tournament debutants Loyola-Chicago. A lot will depend on Loyola’s state of minds when the whistle is blown for first service. And that’s something they really can’t control. They’ll make every effort to be loose and carefree, like it’s just another match and like they’re the team out of whom nobody expects anything. But for a team who make at most one West coast road trip per season (which doesn’t necessarily mean Los Angeles, either), the lights are going to feel especially bright. Loyola are also the youngest team of the Final Four, starting three freshmen and a sophomore.
How Loyola win
The Ramblers enter the national semifinals with a record of 22-9. They’ve got just one loss in the last two months, so they’re certainly trending well. They’ve beaten Lewis twice and Ohio State once this year, and those are probably their best wins of the season. While still unranked, I think even in my own power rankings (though I’ll give myself a little pat on the back and say I had these guys top-10 long before the national polls did) Loyola won a four-set clash against the Lewis Flyers, who at the time owned the nation’s longest winning streak. I saw that match, and wrote it up here. Set one was one of those were one ball a few inches the other way at some point over the course of 50 rallies could have changed everything. Only a let-serve ace won it for the Ramblers. In set two, the Flyers absolutely shot themselves in the foot, hitting negative .143 and after two sets were hitting triple-zeroes for the match. The Ramblers hit .326 in the first two sets.
Things got ugly for the Loyola side in set 3 as Lewis ran away 25-12 (something coincidentally echoed in the MIVA final), but a 27-25 fourth set where the Ramblers again clicked offensively got them what, at the time, seemed to be a colossal win. The Ramblers were aided by the kind of offensive breakdown they’re just not going to see at Pauley Pavilion. Lewis served better (more aces and fewer errors), and were well ahead in blocking (17.5 to 11.5), but a miserable 39/27/104 offensive execution (that’s .115) more than opened the door. Loyola’s own execution was just 49/26/109 — .211’s not going to get it done at Pauley either. Joseph Smalzer and Thomas Jaeschke both had rough nights on efficiency, Jaeschke’s .233 being the better of the two, though that didn’t stop setter Peter Hutz, in one of his first opportunities running the show, from going back to them again and again — they both had more than 30 attack attempts. Hutz also found the middle attack in this match, with Eric Daliege and Nick Olson combining for 21 swings over 4 sets.
And a lot of that held the same in Loyola’s MIVA final win over Lewis, a match I tried to write up but I gave myself the impossible task of watching and writing up both the MIVA and MPSF finals that night. So I’m not really too proud of that write-up. By the stats, this match is even more difficult to explain how Lewis lost, because their night was not littered with hitting errors. They had just 11 in the entire match. Sets 1, 2, and 4 of this match were very, very close, won by either 2 or 3 points. Set 3 was a pasting, Lewis winning by 15, but then in the decider Loyola had a remarkable 10/1/15 offensive efficiency, siding out on all but one opportunity. You might say it epitomised their season — it didn’t matter how they got to a fifth set, they just had to win it, and boy did they. It was a low percentage again for Smalzer, as well as Cody Caldwell, who did not play in the aforementioned match, but every other hitter was at least fair. The middles took 31 swings in 5 sets, even more than in the first mentioned match, and I think that’s a good sign. It’s just crazy that a team could win by allowing a .345 opposing efficiency and coming up with just 4 blocks in 5 sets. That’s not gonna fly in Pauley.
Lastly, the story of their three-set win over Ohio State plays out a lot like the MIVA final. The Buckeyes had six attack errors in three sets — six! — and still lost in three straight. Loyola were again out-blocked in this match, 11 to 4. Smalzer had 15 kills, on just a .161 efficiency, but also had 7 service aces. Seven service aces in three sets is certifiably clownshoes. UCI’s passing when he’s at the service line will be key. This was probably Jaeschke’s very best match of the season, also coming up with 15 kills, but doing it at a .500 clip. The middles took 15 swings in 3 sets.
How Loyola lose
On February 20, the Ramblers lost their second straight home match, to the comparatively lowly IPFW Volleydons. Final was (22-25, 25-12, 16-25, 29-27, 15-11) in favour of IPFW. So we have another example of Loyola losing a set and losing it huge, but not in this case coming back to win. They again lost the blocking battle, 13.5 to 8, and allowed a .320 attacking efficiency to the Volleydons, including .600 on 20 swings for middle blocker Ramon Burgos. Outside hitter Bryan Saunders was 9 for an errorless 14, and IPFW were pretty consistent throughout the night. Loyola were anything but, going from 9/9/24 on attack in set two to 14/0/25 in set three. That’s….kind of unusual, to say the least. They managed just 4 kills in the decider and lost easily. It’s worth pointing out that this match took place when Diego Rodriguez was still the starting setter. Hutz played only briefly, in the bygone set 2. Jaeschke led all scorers with 19 kills and Daliege was 7 for an errorless 19. The middles took 33 swings, but one notes another difference in personnel as the second middle blocker was not Nick Olson, but Danny Podkowa. At the time, the loss actually put IPFW ahead of Loyola in the MIVA standings. What it boils down to is having more kills and fewer errors than your opponent, while taking fewer swings to begin with, is usually a good sign.
A more recent loss was Loyola’s regular-season finale against Ball State. They later beat the Cardinals in the MIVA tournament, but on this night, it was Ball State’s 12th win in a row in advance of the postseason. It was another really low block total for the Ramblers, losing the blocking battle 11 to 4, and their attack efficiency for the night was below .200. Smalzer and Jaeschke combined for 29 kills, but also 20 errors. As a team, they had 15 more kills than the Cardinals, but also 15 more attack errors. This match did not feature a Rambler belly-flop in any one set, as the 25-19 fourth was the widest spread the Cardinals attained. But they were their own worst enemies in this one, as this was the rare volleyball match where the team who lost actually scored more offensive points (68 to 59). That should really never happen.
How UC Irvine win
The Anteaters have, by and large, been so consistent this year that it’s really hard to point out their best win. Their losses are easier to remember, simply because they’re more newsworthy. Perhaps their March 9 triumph over Long Beach State bears examination. This was well after the 49ers first ascended to national prevalence, as this was national #2 vs. #3. The Anteaters won in four sets but all four were very close, with the 25-22 4th being the widest point differential. Neither team blocked much — the 49ers winning there 8.5 to 7.5 — and the Anteaters had a sky-high efficiency, finishing at .325 for the night and actually posting 18 kills in the 3rd set, which did not go to extras (they had 19 in the 2nd, which did go to extras). Weirdly, that 3rd set was the one they lost. The Anteaters’ two-headed monster of Kevin Tillie and Jeremy Dejno was very much at work in this match, with both over 20 kills and both over .300 efficiency. By the numbers, serving was a bit gauche, as Zack La Cavera‘s two aces were it for the team, and he and his teammates combined for 22 errors, but the numbers don’t always tell the whole tale in serving (or anything, but serving especially). All-American libero Michael Brinkley came up with 19 digs in this match, a total that would be pretty good for the women’s game and is downright eye-popping in the men’s. Setter Daniel Stork had 12 and two other players had 9, so the 49ers definitely had some trouble finding the floor. And even though the 49ers matched the Anteaters in total team digs with 56, that looks to be the story of this match. Trouble finding the floor. Middles Scott Kevorken and Collin Mehring combined for 30 swings in 4 sets.
Irvine also closed out their regular season against possible national championship opponent Penn State, and pretty well spanked them. Digs were again key, as the number of attacking errors was equal between the two sides — 14 — but the Nittany Lions hit over 200 points lower. Tillie led the ‘Eaters with 12 kills, but Dejno did not play in this match. Kyle Russell took his spot and added 8 kills on a good efficiency himself. The Anteaters held a slight advantage in blocking, but 24 to 16 on digs — not an insignificant differential over 3 sets — probably told the tale.
How UC Irvine lose
Early in the season, UCI lost three straight matches, to USC, California Baptist, and BYU, and were outhit in all three. It wasn’t a great time to be an Anteater, as they were on the short end of about every statistical category during that stretch. Of course Cal Baptist turned out to be a far better team than any of us really thought they were when this match happened, and there’s no shame in losing to BYU, and, really, even that USC match was deceptively close, but this was definitely the nadir of the Anteaters’ season. The USC match was surely Kevin Tillie’s worst of the year, but even there he had 9 kills (leading the team) and an ace.
The loss that sticks out to me more is the five-set collapse at home against BYU later in the year. I wrote that match up, though as I said then, I sort of tuned out when UCI were up two sets and 19-14 in the 3rd. The numbers suggest that, maybe just a little, UCI might have been stunned to have to play a 4th and then a 5th. Their attack efficiencies in those sets were .143 and .100, and while BYU’s weren’t great or anything (Taylor Sander did hit negative in this match), those are pretty plainly terrible. Of course the biggest part of the story for this match was Ben Patch outscoring the output entire teams will have sometimes, but I think the Anteaters might have mentally checked this one off just a bit too soon.
Ultimately
Hey. Look. I like looking away from where the spotlight shines the brightest. I enjoy seeking out what’s not so obvious to find, and I sure am happy to have found the Loyola Ramblers this season a little bit earlier than most other people did. But there’s a reason the MPSF have such hegemony. You play this match ten times, UCI win eight, maybe nine. Now, there’s every possibility that tomorrow night, we’ll see that one oddball. Loyola are quite welcome to prove me wrong, and UCI have no entitlement to the win. They’ve got to go earn it. But as I’ve said before, expecting an outcome and recognising it as being possible are two wildly different things. UCI are favoured, no question about it. Loyola are going to have to be absolutely out of their minds on service, and have one of their best matches of the season in hitting, back-row defence, and especially blocking (where they figure to be particularly outmatched) to have any kind of hope.
Season statistical rankings
Aces Per Set – Loyola 1.58 (2nd), UC Irvine 1.15 (12th)
Assists Per Set – Loyola 12.06 (4th), UC Irvine 12.08 (2nd)
Blocks Per Set – Loyola 2.31 (20th), UC Irvine 2.68 (6th)
Digs Per Set – Loyola 8.55 (24th), UC Irvine 8.74 (20th)
Attack Percentage – Loyola .292 (7th), UC Irvine .305 (4th)
Kills Per Set – Loyola 12.95 (1st), UC Irvine 12.88 (2nd)
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