I generally like following Division II volleyball as well as Division I, mostly because I went to a D-II school myself, but I've let most of this season pass me by. There's only a couple of weekends left in the regular season (amazing how fast it goes), but let's take a look around anyway.
I'll do a quick little survey of the eight Division II regions. For those unfamiliar, Division II is organised quite differently than Division I, with their 24 conferences spread among eight geographic divisions. Come tournament time, those eight divisions will each have an eight-team mini-tournament prior to the national finals. And where in Division I, the national finals are the Final Four (as teams are grouped into four 16-team regionals), in D-II it's "Elite Eight" that shows up on T-shirts and centre-court designs. One upshot is that there's a heck of a lot more rematches in the D-II tourneys, both year-to-year and in terms of conference foes meeting in the postseason. Those things are either rare or specifically forbidden in D-I tourneys, but in D-II they're the rule rather than the exception.
Let's have a look at how each region has fared so far this season.
ATLANTIC REGION
Conferences included in this region: Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association, Mountain East Conference, Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference
The Mountain East is a brand new conference, and won't get auto-qualification until 2015-'16, though their teams can be selected for at-larges. They largely replaced the now-defunct West Virginia Intercollegiate Athletic Conference effective this season. The one school appearing in recent national polls is Wheeling Jesuit. They've on occasion cracked the actual rankings, but as of this writing they're "#26" — the first team looking in from the outside. They're currently ruling the roost in the MEC, with a spotless 12-0 conference record and a 25-5 overall mark. I don't even try to do D-II bracketology, but despite their having no particular 'signature' wins (came close by extending Minnesota-Duluth to five sets) I very much think that should be good for an at-large.
Second-placed Fairmont State are at 23-5, and 11-2 in conference. Likewise, they have no particularly strong wins, and in a conference that lacks AQ I'm not sure a seemingly sparkling won/lost record gets it done. The region as a whole is pretty weak, though, so the MEC may yet sneak a second team in.
The PSAC is a huge conference, comprising 18 full members. Not a one are named in the most recent AVCA poll. They hold a conference tournament, and so far three teams have qualified for it — Clarion (28-2, 17-1), California (PA) (24-5, 17-1), and Shippensburg (23-7, 15-3). None of them should have too much to worry about come Selection Sunday, even if none of them get the automatic bid. Whichever of Seton Hill (24-8, 12-6) and Pittsburgh-Johnstown (20-8, 12-6) last longer in the conference tournament should get in, too. It's not too big a stretch to think they may both make it.
The CIAA has 12 members, again none of whom are ranked nor close. This, to me, looks like a 1-bid league; the most non-conference wins any team has is five, by middle-ranked Johnson C. Smith. But it's with a pretty big asterisk; four of them are to NAIA teams, and they've also managed to lose to an NCAA Division III squad. The top team is probably Virginia State, at (15-8, 14-2). The CIAA also had a conference tournament, and any of the eight teams who qualify for that could probably go on to be the conference's lone representatives in the NCAA's.
So…that doesn't add up to eight teams. Someone else will be added, dipping below the mark of what seems likely good enough. This has the look of a pretty weak regional, and I'd expect Wheeling Jesuit to have little trouble advancing out of it to the Elite Eight.
CENTRAL REGION
Conferences included in this region: Great American Conference, Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association, Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference
This is where the action is. No doubt whatsoever that the NSIC's Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bears, six-time defending national champions, will host the regional. Someday they're bound to lose in the NCAA tournament again, but until it actually does happen, who could predict it?
Right away we see an iniquity in the Division II system, as some teams who at first blush don't appear to be strong enough to make the tournament, in the Atlantic Region, will indeed make it, while spots in the Central Region will come at a massive premium. I'm not sure if the GAC have AQ this year — they didn't last year — but if they do they will get only their conference tournament champions in. The top team in the league is certainly Harding, who have played 30 matches this season, winning 23. They're getting a smattering of poll votes, but not anything close enough to being ranked. Still, they're the strongest team in the GAC by a wide margin, as second-placed Southern Nazarene are not eligible for the postseason due to provisional conference status. Third-placed Arkansas Tech are 4.5 matches back in the standings.
There's three 'usual suspects' in the MIAA, and they're all present and accounted for this season. Central Missouri, Nebraska-Kearney, and Washburn are all again near the top of the national rankings, and will all make the NCAA tournament just fine. Put fourth-placed Central Oklahoma in any other region (or indeed, conference) and they'd probably look okay for a bid too, but not here.
That leaves four bids for the NSIC, a conference that could easily send six without such a restriction. That's how many are named in the most recent national rankings. Of course Concordia (16-0, 24-1) top the list, followed closely by Minnesota-Duluth (14-2, 24-2) and Southwest Minnesota State (13-3, 18-6). I'd say those three are pretty safe, in descending order. Only of the following three will then make the cut — Northern State (12-4, 19-4), Augustana (10-6, 18-6), and Wayne State (10-6, 19-7). One thing you may be noticing are a distinct lack of non-conference losses; this is an overwhelmingly strong conference, and honestly it's a shame that two or three deserving teams can't be schlepped to another, weaker region like you'd see in the D-I tournament.
EAST REGION
Conferences included in this region: Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference, East Coast Conference, Northeast-10 Conference
The CACC were pretty weak last year, getting just their auto-qualifiers Dominican in, and as the 8-seed in the region. It will probably be the same this year, as the top team in the league is Wilmington at (16-2, 21-9). They don't have any real signature wins, nor are they getting any nods in the national rankings. So whether it's them or someone else, the CACC is probably a 1-bid league again in 2013.
The ECC have some interesting teams. The top team is Bridgeport, at an odd-looking (11-1, 15-2). Few teams have played that few matches so far. It's a two-edged sword — are they more fresh, having fewer competitive dates under their belts, or do they lack experience? Second-placed NYIT are just the opposite at (11-3, 24-4). Both should make the tournament fine, and probably LIU-Post (the reason the Division I Long Island Blackbirds are sometimes referred to as LIU-Brooklyn) at (10-4, 21-7) too. Perhaps one of Daemen at (7-5, 20-9) or Dowling (7-5, 16-11) as well, since we've got to have eight teams. Neither of them look to have particuarly strong resumes, though.
You know how the Atlantic-10 in Division I is the most ridiculous misnmer ever, since they have 35 full members? The NE-10 follow that tradition, with 15 full members to their name. New Haven, who were the top seeds in this region last year, might just end up with that same ranking again, currently sitting at a perfect 10-0 in league and 19-4 overall. Adelphi got the third seed last year, and this year's (9-2, 17-9) mark is probably enough to again make the tourney, though probably at a lower rank. Saint Rose might be new party crashers this year, as (8-2, 16-3) puts them ahead of most of the rest of the league and certainly of the third A-10 team in the tournament last year (Franklin Pierce). None of these teams sniff the national rankings, but the same is pretty much true of the Northeast in Division I.
MIDWEST REGION
Conferences included in this region: Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, Great Lakes Valley Conference, Great Midwest Athletic Conference
Who knew that the Great Lakes spawned not one but two conferences? This is the region I thought was weakest last year, but it will probably be better this year. GLIAC leaders Grand Valley State are ranked #16 in the most recent national poll. Ferris State are #24 despite being third-placed in the GLIAC North, and GLIAC South leaders Ashland are in ARV. Pencil them all in the tournament, and probably GLIAC North second-placed Northern Michigan, too. Good league.
The GLVC also has 16 teams, including former roost-rulers Indianapolis. They're just third-best in the GLVC North this season, and will need to win the conference tournament in order to make the NCAA's. A bit of a fall from last year's Final Four team, though they had the easiest road to the national semis last year. The top four teams in the GLVC — Southern Indiana, Lewis, Rockhurst, and Truman State — all sit at 11-2 in conference. Rockhurst and Truman State are ranked, while Southern Indiana and Lewis are in ARV. But there's almost no chance that they'll all make the NCAA's. So the matter of who step up in the conference tournament will decide a great deal.
The GMAC is a new conference for 2013, and as such I don't believe they have AQ yet. And if they indeed don't, I wouldn't expect them to get anyone in. The leading team is Cedarville, who at (10-1, 18-13) have certainly played a strong and robust schedule, but they don't have a lot to show for it. Not enough to contend for an at-large in against teams from two other very strong conferences. And if they're the best the league can offer, nobody below them should have enough either.
SOUTH REGION
Conferences included in this region: Gulf South Conference, Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, Sunshine State Conference
The word in the South region is still Tampa. They're the most recent team other than Concordia to win a national title (by which I mean they won it all in 2006) and they're the team who gave the Golden Bears the fight of their lives in the national final last year. I thought they'd regress some after losing the National Player of the Year from last season to this, but that has most decidedly not been the case. At a perfect 10-0 in league and 23-1 overall, the Spartans are just as fierce a national championship contender as they were a year ago. They have 1150 rankings points in the last poll, which is either 47 of the 48 second-place votes along with a fourth-place vote, or 46 of 48 second-places along with two third-place votes (the latter seems more likely). They've got the resume, the pedigree, the national respect. Though they'd never say it openly, something tells me Concordia are kinda hoping not to run into Tampa again this year at the Elite Eight.
There'll be a couple of ham-'n-eggers joining them out of the SSC. You can probably pencil Florida Southern (8-3, 19-8) in for a bid, and probably Saint Leo (6-3, 19-7) too, especially if they pick up wins in those conference matches they haven't yet played as compared to Tampa and Florida Southern.
In the Gulf South, national #22 West Florida (12-2, 20-7) will certainly get an at-large if they need one. If they win the conference tournament, they may be the league's only representatives, as second- and third-ranked Lee and Shorter (respectively) are ineligible for postseason play based on provisional status. Christian Brothers made the tournament last year, but at (7-6, 11-15) this year they aren't eligible to be selected at-large. Fourth-ranked Valdosta State (8-6, 17-11) may sneak in on the basis of the region needing eight teams.
The SIAC is much like the MEAC and the SWAC at the Division I level — it's composed solely of historically black universities. The top team is Kentucky State at (15-1, 19-17), playing a hefty schedule indeed. This has all the looks of a 1-bid league (it was last year, with league champions Clark Atlanta being the sacrificial lambs for Tampa in round 1), so this is probably another case of the bottom of the region consisting of teams only there to fill out the ranks.
SOUTH CENTRAL REGION
Conferences included in this region: Heartland Conference, Lone Star Conference, Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference
Historically, this region has been West Texas A&M's party, with everyone else just invited for the ride. Last year was kind of a down year for the Buffs, as they lost hosting priveliges to Regis, but they still made the Elite Eight. They'll get the hosting gig back this year, as at #6 nationally they look to be championship contenders. They're at (12-0, 23-3), and have won 17 straight matches, the nation's second-longest active winning streak (only Armstrong Atlantic State have a longer one). I'm not sure I'd call them favourites — their strongest non-conference matches were losses — but contenders? Sure.
I'd send Angelo State (10-3, 19-6) and probably Texas Woman's (9-4, 18-8) to the tournament, too. Angelo State are #17 in the current rankings, and Texas Woman's (who are actually now officially co-educational, but sponsor only women's sports) in ARV after having cracked the rankings once earlier this year. They're vulnerable if anyone unexpected get white-hot and win the conference tournament, but I don't think that's very likely.
The RMAC, the oldest continuously operating Division II conference, are led by Colorado School of Mines. They were third-seeded in the region in last year's tournament and should be at least that high this year, currently at (14-1, 20-4). After them, you've got a whopping six teams — Western New Mexico, Regis, Colorado Mesa, Colorado Christian, Metro State, and Adams State — all within a match of each other for second in the league. So some of this picture still remains to be developed. There's a good chance the Heartland Conference is a 1-bid league, so the RMAC could get as many as four in.
And, the Heartland Conference. Arkansas-Fort Smith are on their way to running the table at (14-0, 19-6), and no one else comes close. If someone unexpected win the conference tournament, maybe they get 2 in, but I still think the Lions need to not have to rely on at-large consideration. This is not a very strong league.
SOUTHEAST REGION
Conferences included in this region: Conference Carolinas, Peach Belt Conference, South Atlantic Conference
Men's volleyball pioneers Conference Carolinas (the first 'regular' conference to sponsor the sport for men) of course also sponsor it for women. I'd like to think they might have two in line to make the tournament, with Belmont Abbey and King University both posting shiny 14-1 conference records (22-3 and 26-4 overall respectively), but neither have sniffed the national rankings. Carolinas were 1-bid last year, with Belmont Abbey getting a distant 8-seed, losing a close one to Armstrong Atlantic State in round one. It's definitely two tops.
In the Peach Belt, Armstrong Atlantic State are the last remaining undefeated team in Division II. It's only got them good enough for #19 in the national rankings, so there's a matter of disrespect for their schedule and opposition. At (14-0, 22-0), they're distantly better than second-ranked Flagler at (11-4, 16-9), though the Saints will probably still make it, especially if Conference Carolinas only get one or perhaps two in. Third-ranked Francis Marion seem a bit of a reach at (9-4, 18-6), but depending on how little everyone else get in they may sneak in themeslves. No one in this league have any major non-conference wins.
Wingate out of the SAC are a perennial tournament team, and this year will be no different. They're #9 in the nation at (17-0, 21-2). They'll probably host the regional this year (it was Armstrong Atlantic last year), and seem like the strongest team to make the Elite Eight (which they did last year as the 2-seed). Four teams are within a match of second place behind them (Tusculum, Mars Hill, Lincoln Memorial, and Anderson). At least one will certainly make it, and possibly as many as three. But it's Wingate's regional to lose, beyond a question.
WEST REGION
Conferences included in this region: California Collegiate Athletic Association, Great Northwest Athletic Conference, Pacific West Conference
Ahh, the one I know like the back of my hand. I've written a little about it this season, as my hometown Western Washington Vikings are members of the GNAC. After two straight home losses (for the first time in 14 years), we are still on the outside looking in as far as auto-qualification goes. Until that changes, or until Selection Sunday, I reserve the right to be irrationally nervous. We're still half-a-match behind the Alaska Anchorage Seawolves, and if history has taught me anything it's that it's 2 bids tops for the GNAC. The only time we've ever gotten 3 was a major down year for both the CCAA and the Pac-West, and that's not gonna happen this year.
Strong as ever are last year's Final Four team BYU-Hawaii, leading the way in the Pac-West. I had thought for a while we at WWU might host regionals, but no, it's pretty assured that it'll again be out on the islands. The Seasiders are #4 nationally with just a single loss on the season, not having lost much from last season. Point Loma Nazarene, Fresno Pacific, and Azusa Pacific are down in ARV, but certainly they won't all make the tournament. Maybe one of them. Maybe.
The CCAA are as strong as ever, at least at the top, and will certainly get the most bids in the conference. Four, maybe five. Thankfully, not six (they don't have six eligible teams). UC San Diego, Cal State-San Bernardino, and Sonoma State are mortal locks. No one else can see their names in the national rankings, but I'm telling you, Cal State LA and/or Cal State Monterey Bay could easily find themselves in too. I'd love to be proven wrong about this — spread the wealth a little. And keep my Viks from having to bite their nails on Selection Sunday!
So that's an interesting survey of the teams, conferences, and divisions in D-II. Much like, well, everything, I'd love to be keeping closer tabs on it. I will plan to provide some direct coverage of the NCAA tournament, so hopefully this post provides some valuable context for that.
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