The second semifinal coming up tonight is, by any objective measure, the marquee match of the evening, pitting Penn State vs Washington. I'm sure fans of Texas and Wisconsin are most looking forward to the opener, but Nittany Lion and Husky fans, as well as any unattached fans have got to be most engrossed by the #2 vs #3, home team vs the super-heavyweights (ehh….metaphorically speaking) matchup. So let's take a look at it.
How the Nittany Lions win – They just don't have any weaknesses, and it's probably fair to say they're even stronger this year than they were last year when they were the #1 tournament seeds and only an injury to setter Micha Hancock kept them from the national final. Like Texas, Penn State have entered the final weekend of the season with just two losses on their record; one of them to the Longhorns themselves back at the Big Four. Most of Penn State's wins have been dominant; their Elite Eight match with Stanford was the first time they were pushed to five sets in a winning effort this season. The key in that match was simply finding the floor. They held a substantial advantage in kills (77 to 62), without major disparities in any other area. Strong hitting nights from Deja McClendon and Ariel Scott against a very good Stanford back line broke an otherwise very tight match open. For the season, Penn State have really spread their offence around; even after 34 matches, neither principal pin hitter has 1,000 swings on the saeson. Scott's at 902, McClendon's at 886. Megan Courtney is at 707, middle blocker Katie Slay's at 493. Slay of course leads the nation's best block, with her 1.67 average good for third in the country and, by extension, the best of anyone in Seattle.
How the Nittany Lions lose – The only thing you can really look at in terms of Penn State's Big Ten-opening 27 September loss at home against Michigan State is fifth-set attacking errors. The Lions hit zero in the deciding set, with six kills and six errors. This is after a .519 fourth-set (Penn State had come back from down 0-2 to force a fifth), so it's as if a switch got flipped. Even in that match, their only even remotely "bad" loss of the season, the Nittany Lions out-hit the Spartans and were only out-blocked by half a block. They gave away a few points on serve — 5/8 aces/errors for Michigan State to 3/13 for Penn State — but not enough to impact such a long match. I've heard firsthand accounts from people who saw this match, and though you may wish to take them with a grain of salt as they are from Penn State rooters, but evidently the Lions just shot themselves in the foot in this match. As for the Texas match, the forebearer to the potential national title match, the Nittany Lions led that match 2-1 before letting it slip away in five. Again, a sterling hitting line got changed to a clunker in a matter of minutes — .577 in set 3, .140 in set four. For the night, .246, well below the seasonal average of .306. They were also out-blocked for one of the only times all year, 13 to 8, and had 22 service errors. The team also relied on the hitting talents of redshirt freshman Paulina Prieto Cerame much more in this match than in recent matches, and had a rare dismal showing from Scott (hitting minus for the night). Lately, Cerame has been more of a serving specialist, though she does still get a few swings each match. In all, this match was equal parts competitive and not. It featured 33 ties and 11 lead changes, but none of either in sets 2 and 3 (set 2 won by Texas, set 3 by Penn State). It was all just a matter of who asserted themselves more.
How the Huskies win – Washington also come into the Final Four bearing only two losses, so they've done a whole lot of winning. The star of the show in their regional final win over USC was the likely National Player of the Year frontrunner Krista Vansant, notching 38 kills and 30 digs. The kill total and the 30-30 showing are both firsts for the school in an NCAA tournament match, though I suspect 38 kills must be an overall school record for any rally-scoring match. Certainly, for rally scoring with 25 point sets (though that's only a few short years that those have been the rules). In any case, if it isn't, I'd like to know what is. Vansant is, clearly, one of the best all-around players in the nation, with 4.46 kills per set, a very high attack efficiency for a pin hitter (.323), strong contributor in the back row in passing, serving, and digging, and a contributor to a team block that, while not #1 in the nation like last year, is still very good. The Huskies' big strength this year is serving, sixth-best in the nation in aces per set. Cassie Strickland leads the team with 42 aces, and then come a constellation of players — Vansant at 33, and Jennifer Nogueras, Jenna Orlandini, and Melanie Wade all at 32. At almost two aces per set, and only giving up one about every two sets, they'll look to make some big hay at the serving line.
How the Huskies lose – Either be at elevation (Colorado), or face a very, very good Stanford team on their home court. It's a small testament to Vansant that even in her team's worst loss of the season, the sweep at Stanford, she still put up a very respectable 16 kills on .300-plus efficiency. It's funny — for much of this season, in my power rankings, I kind of discounted the Huskies, feeling they were getting by on name value and "who lost least recently" sorts of votes. But at some point you've got to give credit where it's due. The Huskies didn't just skate through the second-best conference in volleyball this year, but they did assert themselves as its best team. Look at that Stanford stat sheet; three relatively close sets, nothing huge separating one team from the other (except for Stanford's first-set attack efficiency)….it just speaks to how consistent the Huskies must be that even at their worst, they're not really that bad.
THE PICK – Washington in five. This match has the makings of an absolute classic, not least in considering that these teams both played classic matches in the Elite Eight to get here. Playing what is essentially a home match (it's their home city, if not their home court) will put the Huskies over the top. I'm usually not one to believe much in 'intangibles,' but I think the crowd will be behind the Huskies big time. Play this in State College, and I pick Penn State. Play it in, I dunno, Kansas City, and it may very well be a total coin-toss.
Seasonal statistical rankings by team
Aces per set – Penn State 1.29 (105th), Washington 1.73 (6th)
Attack efficiency – Penn State .306 (5th), Washington .278 (14th)
Assists per set – Penn State 13.08 (34th), Washington 13.20 (27th)
Blocks per set – Penn State 3.09 (1st), Washington 2.80 (17th)
Digs per set – Penn State 14.05 (233rd), Washington 14.57 (185th)
Kills per set – Penn State 14.22 (24th), Washington 14.08 (29th)
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