As you're probably aware, the NCAA tournament expands this season from four teams to six. We had thought for a little while that the 2014 tournament, and those of the foreseeable future, would have an awkward five-team cast, with Conference Carolinas joining the party as an auto-qualification league and there being no room in the budget for anyone else for a few years. About two months prior to the start of this season, we found out that that would not be the case, and the tournament would instead have six teams — the four AQ's and not one but two at-larges.
True expansion is upon us, and that makes 2014 an historic season. It's been bandied about a bit, the notion of an at-large bid going to a team from the Midwest, or I suppose the East coast (the Southeast should certainly be happy with "only" 1 team for the time being). In past years, it's been all but unthinkable that the one singular at-large bid could go to a non-West coast (ehh….plus BYU……..and Hawaii) team, but now that we have two it's a possibility worth considering.
Do I think it's likely? No. I do not.
But let's do a little thought experiment. Close your eyes. Well….not all the way. Leave 'em open a slit to keep reading. Or just close one eye. Yeah, that's it.
All right, with your eye closed, imagine it's Selection Sunday. You know four of the six teams who will be announced as part of the 2014 NCAA tournament field. The first previously known team get announced. It's a West coast team, as always. The second team get announced, and much to everyone's amazement, we have a Midwest at-large!
Now — what was that team's name?
I'll give you a hint. It starts with "L."
And it ends with "oyola."
The Loyola Ramblers have positioned themselves as the only team that's really even worth discussing as a non-MPSF at-large. They've earned a lot of respect, and deservedly so, by beating both of last year's national finalist teams to open up their season, before dropping a four-setter to USC on their third match in as many nights. Two Conference Carolinas foes await them this week, and with either a home match against Penn State or a road match against Lewis their hardest remaining contest (depends on your perspective), it's not inconceivable to think they may run the table the rest of the way.
Which effectively makes the point as to why I severely doubt there will be a non-Western at-large in 2014 — the only team that would truly deserve it almost certainly won't need it. Now, if they do run roughshod over the rest of their regular-season schedule only to stub their toes in the MIVA tournament, then it's excellent that we have this now. I think if that happens, they probably will be granted an at-large. But the likelihood seems pretty slim.
I don't think we can talk about Lewis having at-large possibilities. 2-2 against the MPSF, including a win over BYU, is solid. Losing to a really good Stanford team on the latter's home court is certainly nothing of which to be ashamed. But you need more than "not shameful" to make it as an at-large. Even if they're a solid second place in the MIVA regular season, which I imagine they will be, I can't see how their at-large resume would stack up as solidly better than the third-place MPSF team.
The only other even remote possibility is Penn State, and they sure didn't do themselves any favours at the Outrigger Hotels Invitational. They beat Big Ten brothers Ohio State, but lost to UCLA (a team on whom I'm quite high) and Hawaii (an MPSF middleweight with room to grow). They took sets from each, so again, it's not a dreadful result, but neither is it a knock-your-socks-off result. And with the EIVA as weak as it usually is, that can't possibly be enough.
So the Loyola Ramblers are the only non-Western team who can really even think about making the NCAA tournament as an at-large. But their profile, even now at this early stage in the season, seems very reminiscent of classic bubble teams in the women's tournament. "They might make it as an at-large, but they'd just as soon not have to find out." That sound about right? The biggest factor counting against Loyola getting an at-large would be the fact that they need one. That would necessarily mean they lost a match, more than likely a home match, versus a team against whom they'd stack up as superior nine times out of ten. Maybe a loss to a second-seeded Lewis team wouldn't hurt bad enough to count against them like this, but anyone else and they become a hard sell for the NCAA tournament.
And at this point, the obvious perhaps merits mentioning — there's a whole bunch of the season left, and anything can happen. A key player could get hurt (we hope that doesn't happen), someone could come out of nowhere to lead an unexpected team to glory, or something a little less tangible could just throw everything out of whack. But as for right now, Loyola are #1 in the media poll and #2 in the coaches' poll. And they have the easiest season schedule of anyone anywhere near them in either ranking.
So if it's gonna happen, and even if it's only a one out of a million shot, it'll have to be with Loyola. I think we can safely put that in the 'known quantities' pile. Will we see it, though? Not likely.
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