Who is surprised by the East Carolina Pirates’ performance this season? I’d be surprised if many put up their hands.
Arguably the only Conference USA immigrant who looked ready to compete entering the season, it’s little surprise that the Pirates are 5-1 at this stage. What’s more surprising are the struggles of their AAC peers.
All ECU has to do is keep winning, and the AAC crown will be in its possession. Can it sustain its success? The intangibles are there—an experienced team with a good coaching staff—but how do the numbers match up so far in 2014?
Passing Game: A
Or Shane Carden, as it also known. The senior has just gone from strength to strength since he took over as a sophomore, and has completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,129 yards and 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions so far this season. Those are fine numbers, and even better when you consider some of the opposition he has played against.
He’s not just a first-down hero either, completing 64.6 percent of his third-down attempts, with 25 first downs in 48 throws. If you want to nitpick, you could point out his 46.4 percent completion percentage in the red zone, but 11-of-13 completions have gone for touchdowns, with zero red zone interceptions, so being careful with the football definitely plays into that.
The offensive line does a good job protecting Carden, allowing 10 sacks on the season, but they have come in bunches, with four allowed against Virginia Tech and three to USF.
While Carden’s no threat to go 80 yards with the ball, he can pick up yards with his feet, rushing for 73 yards on 39 carries (with 10 sacks factored in). Included in that total are three TDs and eight first-down runs. Surprisingly, Carden appears to be a more effective ball carrier on the plus side of the field, gaining 77 yards on 20 carries inside the opponents’ 40. Are they paying more attention to receivers closer to the goalline? Very likely.
Speaking of receivers, Carden has a cracking bunch to throw to. Justin Hardy is a stud and is well known in football circles, while Carden’s other top target, Isaiah Jones, has a reliable pair of hands. While these are the preferred targets, they are far from the only options. Cam Worthy provides the big plays, and has six receptions of 25 yards or more. Trevon Brown is another option, while running back Breon Allen is third in receptions with 18.
Running Game: A
Yeah, so the passing game is great, but I wonder how successful the offense would be if it didn’t have this strong running attack to keep defenses off balance. Granted, both enjoy a symbiotic relationship, but, as in the USF game, the Pirates could rely on the ground game while Carden found his touch (and boy, did he). The Pirates currently average 193 yards on the ground, at a stellar 6.1 yards per carry.
The Pirates use a bunch of runners, but none are more important than leading rusher Breon Allen. The senior, despite measuring just 5-foot-8 and 190 pounds, has shown some power to go with his jitterbug running style. While he was part of the rotation for much of the season, Allen’s become more of a factor over the last few games. He gashed North Carolina for 211 yards and two touchdowns on just 18 carries, and had 124 yards and a score on 18 carries. Allen currently has 504 yards and four scores on just 61 carries, but we can expect to see a lot more of him as the season progresses.
Also in the mix are Anthony Scott, Marquez Grayson and Chris Hairston, all of whom are used mostly in the second half. The trio does plenty of damage to tired defenses.
Pass Defense: B
Prolific offenses often suffer from inflated passing yardage against them, and it’s no surprise as teams struggle to keep pace, or even come from behind. Hence, while it would be easy to say, “Hey, ECU allows 260 yards per game passing, they suck!” a little digging will show that to be false.
The Pirates do allow 260 yards per game, but look at the other numbers. How about 57.8 completion percentage? Just 10 TDs? Six interceptions? Those are outstanding stats, even better when you consider the Pirates have managed must 10 sacks. In the Pirates “worst” game of the season, giving up 339 yards to SMU, it took the Mustangs 67 passes and 42 completions to get there.
Still not enough? How about on third down; this is where the Pirates are at their best, allowing just 34 completions on 71 attempts, giving up 306 yards, one touchdown and making three interceptions. In the red zone, the pass defense is nearly impregnable, giving up just 12 completions in 33 attempts for 125 yards although they allowed six TDs.
ECU has done a good job of limiting the big plays and forcing opponents to go on long drives, but that could work against its favor when it plays more athletic offenses such as UCF or Cincinnati. Allowing short gains is all well and good, but tackles must be made or those 3-yard gains can become 30-yard gains pretty quickly. The lack of pass rush could also come into play down the road, as teams with athletic quarterbacks can force the secondary to keep one eye in the backfield more than they like.
Run Defense: B
ECU doesn’t just possess a tough secondary; running on them is no easy task either. The Pirates are giving up just 104.2 yards per game, at an impressive 3.4 yards per carry, and six TDs. Only the other Carolinas on the schedule gained over 100 yards against them, and only the Gamecocks averaged over 4.0 yards per carry.
Forget running on them on early downs, as they’re giving up just 3.0 and 3.4 on first and second respectively. Even more impressively, the Pirates give up just 2.9 yards per carry over the first three quarters of games. Remember: This is a team that had just 10 sacks.
It’s not all fun and games. They have had problems on 3rd-and-short, giving up 10 first downs and a TD on 13 carries. Likewise, there were some red zone concerns, as opponents carried 23 times for 97 yards and five touchdowns, with six first downs. This will need to be ironed out, especially with the a couple of tough games left on the schedule.
Special Teams: C
Kicker Warren Harvey has hit just 5-of-8 field goals this season, but he has proven to be accurate in the past. Can he come through in a close game though? Punter Worth Gregory is averaging 47 yards per punt, although he’s only needed to kick 20 times. The return teams are mediocre, although they unit has blocked a couple of kicks. The coverage has had some problems, giving up 23.2 yards per return, while the punting unit is giving up 9.0 yards per return. The Pirates have also had two kicks blocked. The special teams is not the strongest part of the team.
Overall: A
Though ECU came back to Earth with a surprisingly close win over South Florida last Saturday, the Pirates are in excellent position to capture an American Athletic Conference championship and can likely control their own destiny as a New Year’s Six representative. Honestly, what else could you ask for from a team that is in its first year as a member after coming over from the C-USA?
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