Is there such a thing as a must win game in week 6 of the NFL season? Perhaps you can argue it’s way too early to ever be throwing something like that out there. If there was ever a time that could apply, though, the Saints at Buccanneers would be the prime example. And I’m not talking about the Saints, either. This is a must win game for the Bucs. Right now the Saints sit atop the NFC South at 4-1 with the Bucs trailing them at 3-2 and the Falcons surprisingly sitting at 2-3. Should the Bucs lose to the Saints Sunday, it would put them 2 games behind the Saints in the standings (5-1 vs. 3-3) but also give the Saints’ a leg up in the tiebreaker. So we’re really talking about 3 games. 3 games back with 10 games to go would require either a colossal implosion by the Saints, or titanic run by the Bucs for them to make that ground back up after a loss Sunday. Definitely not impossible, but pretty improbable.
The challenge for the Bucs will be not allowing recent history to repeat itself. The Saints boast 31-6 and 38-7 blowout victories in their last two trips to Tampa. I’m not naive enough to think the Saints will walk out of Tampa with a 25+ point victory this time around, but it can’t be ruled out as possible.
The big question is whether the Bucs’ offense can keep up with the Saints’ offense this year. I’m not convinced they can by any stretch. Currently their defense sits at 23rd overall, not impressive enough to slow down the Saints’ offense unless Brees plays poorly, and their offense is 28th in average points scored with just 17.4 points per game. Running back LeGarrette Blount is apparently a longshot to play as well, and the depth behind him at running back is very poor, which means the Bucs’ offense becomes even less dangerous. On paper, it looks like we’re headed towards another blowout, right? Maybe. But the Bucs are desperate for this one because they can essentially kiss the division title goodbye if they lose this game. Yes, there would be a long way to go, but catching the Saints 3 games back with the schedule they have would be a massive ask. Consider they still have: @ Packers, @ Saints, @ Falcons, vs. Bears, vs. Texans, @ Titans, vs. Cowboys. That’s not even mentioning playing a vastly improved Carolina team twice that’s entirely capable of beating them. That’s a tough road to go down 3 games back from the division leader.
So you can play it down if you want, but at home against the Saints, this is the Bucs’ chance to keep the Saints within striking distance. If they lose Sunday, they may not have a chance to close the gap again this season.
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