Today I’m going to be talking about what i think about the Saints 2014 schedule. I’m going to break it down week by week and determine the things that the Saints need to do in order to win the game. I did this in 2013 and for the most part, I feel like I was accurate. Anyway, that’s the past. Let’s get started:
Week 1: @ Atlanta – I’ve always said Atlanta is overrated. There is nothing that shows me that they will be anything different this year (granted, it’s only the offseason and things change). Their left tackle spot will definitely be better with the drafting of Jake Matthews, and their WR play will be better with the return of Julio Jones, but other than those two areas, I see them being sub-par (finishing last in the NFC South in my official 2014 complete NFL predictions). Their defense has always been underwhelming and this year, I expect more of the same; with that being said they are an inter-division rival who ALWAYS plays the Saints a good game, and it’s on the road so I never expect a blowout against this team.
The Saints win this game if: They play their brand of football.
Week 2: @ Cleveland – After RG3 lit up the scoreboards in the Superdome in week 1 of 2012, I will never again underestimate a rookie QB in the right system. I said before that game that there was no way RG3 would come into the Hornet’s Nest (ironic considering the former name of NOLA’s Basketball team) and beat the Saints in his NFL debut. Well, whatever I said wouldn’t happen, DID happen. That’s why I won’t guarantee this victory for the Saints. I fully expect Manziel to beat out Hoyer in training camp and be the day 1 starter for the Browns due in part to the fact that he gives them the best chance to win games with his playmaking ability. My friend Cameron Lawrence (Who is now a linebacker for the Dallas Cowboys) said to me one time that he would rather play Alabama 10 times before playing A&M 3 times because Manziel gasses defenses. I have a feeling he could do that to an extent to defenses in the NFL, but not nearly as bad as he did to college defenses. If he does that, he’ll surely make plays on any defense. Let me go over other parts of this team now. I feel like the defense is an underrated group and it’s an up-and-coming defense and they only got better in free agency and the draft with guys like Whitner and Gilbert. If Josh Gordon is out for the season (or even out for the game), that’s a HUGE plus for New Orleans because as of today, they released Greg Little and they signed Miles Austin and Earl Bennett, both who can still be productive, but way past their prime. Their running game will be better with Ben Tate as they #1 guy and with Manziel running the option (more than likely).
The Saints win this game if: They can limit Manziel’s big plays. Easy as that.
Week 3: Minnesota @ home – As far as the QB goes, same thing applies here. Although I do not think Bridgewater will be as successful as a lot of people think, his talent is undeniable. The reason I’m a skeptic is because his last year at Louisville, he struggled against the competition at times. If you are considered a blue-chip prospect in the NFL draft, you can’t struggle against mediocre competition. Anyway, with that being said; I feel like Bridgewater is definitely an upgrade from Ponder/Cassel. Then there’s Adrian Peterson in the backfield. That’s all I have to say about that position. The receiver/tight end position is made of really of 3 people: Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings, and Kyle Rudolph. After those 3, there’s a drop-off in talent but that doesn’t mean they can’t expose defenses. I expect the Vikings to have a good day in the run game, but a sub-par day in the passing game. If AP gets going, that’s going to definitely open up the passing game for Bridgewater to expose the Saints defense. I don’t like the idea of playing frantic defense because that’s where most of the mistakes in coverage and communication come.
The Saints win this game if: They limit Adrian Peterson’s yardage to the bare minimum.
Week 4: @ Dallas – I NEVER expected the Saints to absolutely embarrass Dallas in the Dome last year. Mark Ingram had a career game, and I feel like that was a major confidence booster for him because he started showing the stuff that made the Saints trade back into the first round to draft him in 2011. I feel like the Cowboys actually got worse in the off-season with them not resigning DeMarcus Ware and then not doing a whole lot in free agency or the draft. Their offensive line should be better with the drafting of Zack Martin, but that’s no guarantee. Tony Romo is Tony Romo. Has the ability to light up the scoreboard (As seen week 5 or so last year) but he is always bound to make the game-changing mistake. I am not worried about Romo at all. I feel like if he makes one or two mistakes early, he’ll be bound to make more. Really, nothing about the Dallas Cowboys worries me as far as game changers. However, that being said, with the exception of last year, they always play the Saints fairly close and I don’t expect that to change.
The Saints win this game if: They can score in abundance and play defense like they did in 2013.
Week 5: Tampa Bay @ home – This is going to be the first big test for New Orleans. Tampa Bay did nothing but get vastly better on both sides of the ball and I think it’s going to immediately show. The key to this game for the Saints is DEFENSE. If the Saints play bad defense, they will lose this game. The jury for me is still out on Josh McCown being the starter because he has nothing to play for at this point, so he might regress, but I can’t say for sure. That run game of Tampa’s is always a threat with Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin back there. Now for the receivers, or should I say basketball players? This is going to be the part where I feel like the Saints are going to really struggle. All of Tampa Bay’s receivers are big and strong and minus Stanley Jean-Baptiste, the Saints are seriously outmatched. I don’t know how Rob Ryan plans on playing defense on these receivers, but I hope he comes up with something truly creative. Having Vaccaro back will be a true blessing. Another blessing I just thought about is their offensive line was hit hard. A lot of their 2013 starters are no longer on the team as of right now, so I expect Jordan/Galette to have a field day on McCown/Glennon. As far as TB’s defense, the Saints offensive line is going to have a good game too. Their pass-rush got upgraded pretty nicely with the addition of Michael Johnson (I feel like they overpaid him though).
The Saints win this game if: They play great defense and plays to their strengths on offense.
Week 6: BYE – After the BYE week, a 4-game gauntlet begins. At least 3/4 of them will be indoors.
Week 7: @ Detroit – This game is a tossup for me. Detroit has the potential (in my mind) to be a top-5 team in the league, especially now with the acquisitions they’ve made on top of their pretty good draft class. Something about them though always disappoints in the end, whether or not it’s the defense or Matt Stafford. I feel like their defense got a little better, and rightfully so with the value pick of Kyle Van Noy in the second round and a late rounder in Caraun Reid from Princeton who garnered a great deal of buzz toward the start of the draft. I feel like they also got a good value pick in center Travis Swanson from Arkansas. I feel like the Saints should win this game if they simply outscore the Lions. The Lions front-7, lead by Ndamukong Suh and Stephen Tulloch, is pretty fierce, but their secondary lacks.
The Saints win this game if: They outscore Detroit.
Week 8: Green Bay @ home – This is game #2 that’s going to be very difficult for the Saints to win. Green Bay is obviously a perennial contender with Aaron Rodgers back there taking the snaps, but since it’s in the Superdome, I believe the Saints have a chance to win. It’s definitely an uphill battle because Green Bay is a pretty complete team across the board. Eddie Lacy is a star in the making, and then their receivers, while they lack in “Star Power”, are very productive because of #12. The defensive unit has been underwhelming the past couple of years, but still don’t sleep on it. I feel like defense is going to play a major role in how good the Saints do in a lot of games this year, and this is no exception. The Packers’ offensive line hasn’t been good for years and New Orleans’ pass rush is slowly getting better and better. This bodes well because if you get pressure on Aaron Rodgers, or any QB for that matter, he’ll be more prone to make mistakes and making the opposing QBs make mistake is one of the reasons the Saints have a Lombardi Trophy today.
The Saints win this game if: They get good pressure on Aaron Rodgers and have good offensive line play.
Week 9: @ Carolina – This game could prove to be a crucial divisional game, just as the 2 matchups were last year, for the Saints. In my predictions, I have Carolina finishing third in the division due to a lack of viable receivers outside of Kelvin Benjamin. I just don’t see them doing very well like they did last year. Cam Newton is a beast still, but he can’t do it all. The only reason I have them finishing third and not fourth is because of that defense. I believe the running game will still do well, but as far as the passing game, I honestly don’t think it will be anything to call home about. That defense scares me though. Led by superstar Luke Kuechly, the unit lost a couple of people (Captain Munnerlyn) in free agency and then downgraded (I know, he was a Saint before, but facts are facts) to Roman Harper. Then in the draft, they got a straight-up value pick in Kony Ealy which the Saints made available to them by passing up on him in the second round, making that pass-rush even more intimidating.
The Saints win this game if: They shut down the run/screen game and make Cam Newton throw downfield.
Week 10:San Francisco @ home – Last game of the “Gauntlet” I was referring to and the start of a streak of 3 home games. This one is going to be brutal. Not only did the Saints beat the 49ers in the dome last year, they did it on a blown call (at the time, it looked like a good call). That’s not good news because that means the 49ers are going to be looking to avenge that loss, but also, they’ve also had the best offseason out of any team in the NFL. Fantastic drafting, and they didn’t lose too much in free agency and what they did lose, I feel like they reloaded. With the addition of Stevie Johnson(For Free), Carlos Hyde, Antione Bethea, and Brandon Lloyd, that team is looking more and more like a Super Bowl favorite to me. That defense is always good, and that’s going to be the tallest task that the Saints have to overcome in the entire season. I say that because not only will they play in the regular season, I see them meeting in the playoffs sometime and then it’s round 2 of a heavyweight prize fight.
The Saints win this game if: Saints commit 0 turnovers and play great defense. AKA: A perfect game.
Week 11: Cincinnati @ home – This game has upset written all over it. Especially if the Saints win in Week 10. I fully expect the Saints to be a disappointing Bengals team (largely in part because of who they have under center). Last time these 2 teams met, Drew Brees hard-counted a late offsides on 4th down that led to the game-winning touchdown and I don’t expect it to be that close this time around. The Bengals, to me, just don’t have “it”. There is nothing special about this team outside of AJ Green. I realize that the “it” factor doesn’t matter much, but this group of Average Joes have not had any success in the playoffs as of late, and I think it continues here, especially in the dome. However, if I had to say there was a pressing issue with playing this team, it’d be the superstar I mentioned earlier; AJ Green. He’s a very good receiver that can go off at anytime and if he gets going, I feel like it could possibly open the door for other pieces on that offense to get going and we don’t want that.
The Saints win this game if: They shut down AJ Green.
Week 12: Baltimore @ Home – Baltimore is a curious case as well. I really don’t have a lot to say about this week. They have the ability to be really good, but something just doesn’t seem right with them. Ray Rice doesn’t seem to be the same bell cow they had a couple years ago, their WR core is slightly above average to me (TEs included), and their defense is rebuilding slowly after the departure of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Maybe it’s Flacco. Sure, he had one off-year, but I don’t know…After he got paid that enormous contract, he just doesn’t look like the Flacco that brought them their second Lombardi Trophy. The last time these two teams met, it came down to a failed lateral-fest on the final kickoff of the game and the Saints lost. I hope it doesn’t come down to that, but the Baltimore Ravens are a much improved team on paper than in 2013. We’ll all get to see a little bit of the Ravens and what kind of team they are in the preseason when the Saints and Baltimore play (week 4)
The Saints win if: They play a good game on both sides of the ball.
Week 13: @ Pittsburgh – 3 AFC North teams in a row? Come on guys. I have Pittsburgh finishing last in the AFC North. I don’t think they’re that good of a team anymore. Big Ben is getting older and I feel like it’s showing, that offensive line hasn’t been good in a couple of years, they keep losing WRs, and their defense is getting older and slower. I think the Saints should be able to win this relatively easily. The only downside is that it’s in Pittsburgh on the last day of November, and we all know how well the Saints play in cold weather. I feel like the Saints outmatch the Steelers in everything. Yes, literally, every position, I think the Saints are better than the Steelers. Again, that doesn’t mean anything come game-time, but it gives you a little more of a clue about how little I think of the team.
The Saints win if: They play well in the cold.
Week 14: Carolina @ Home – This will be a game to watch out for. The Panthers beat the Saints (as we all know) at home last year, so I feel like there will be extra incentive to prove to them who the real kings of the NFC South are. Without Steve Smith, though, I don’t know how “bloody” this game will be. He was the heart and soul of that team last year, and it gave them a lot of electricity in games. Without that type of leadership, who knows what Panthers team will show up.
The Saints win this game if: They do what they did the first game, maybe even better.
Week 15: @ Chicago – This game is going to suck. The only reason the game last year didn’t suck is because it was in the middle of the day and it wasn’t too cold in Chicago at the time. I don’t know what to expect from this matchup because I honestly thought they would have played better against New Orleans last year. Their defense improved slightly with the drafting of Kyle Fuller, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, and maybe Brock Vareen. I feel like the drafting of Will Sutton from Arizona State was a steal because before last year’s college football season, he was being talked about as being one of the better defensive lineman in the country and a top pick. We saw it with Vontaze Burfict in Cincinnati; So I expect their defense to do better. Their offense, on the other hand, I feel like will stagnate again mainly because of Jay Cutler. Explain to me why a coaching staff would decide to bench a player that is taking your team to the playoffs for somebody who shows flashes of brilliance, but then reverts back to just above mediocrity when it really counts. Oh, I also feel like that offensive line isn’t very good either besides Bushrod.
The Saints win this game if: They can make Cutler make mistakes (not hard) and score in abundance.
Week 16: Atlanta @ home – More of the same from Atlanta. Always play the Saints close, and this time, it may be for a late push into the playoffs so the intensity will be higher on both sides. Just have to do what the Saints did in Week 1 (Hopefully) to sweep Atlanta for a second straight season.
The Saints win this game (and sweep ATL) if: They play Saints football.
Week 17: @ Tampa Bay – This could shape up to be a pretty big game (much like Carolina and New Orleans last year). With that being said, again, it’s more of the same of what I said about them earlier, just away. The only differences I could see is a shift in personnel from injuries (God forbid) or a lack of production.
The Saints win this game if: They don’t get complacent and keep playing like it’s mid-season.
That’s my complete outlook for the upcoming NFL Season for the Saints. I hope you enjoyed, and maybe if you see something different, talk to me! I’d like to know what you think! Thanks for reading it!
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