Tell me if you have heard this one before; the Saints are by far the better team here and should win this game by a landslide. That was the case week 1, was the case last week against Cleveland, and is the case this week against Minnesota. They key word there of course is should. I am not a beat writer (as you can tell by my numerous grammatical mistakes and entirely Saints-centric reasoning) and I am going to do each and every single scouting report as I see it from the perspective of the Saints. Ask me a question about a player in a vacuum, about a scheme, how we are using someone, or a particular match-up with an opponent either in the comments or on twitter (@kirus16) and I promise to answer honestly and with as little bias as possible. However, to me these are how I see the matchup with the opponent from the perspective of the Saints and so you could just as easily call this ‘scouting report’ how the Saints can win. I was (perhaps) overly enthusiastic with my bombastic claims of beat downs and curb-stomps for the Saints opponents in the first two weeks, but the reason for that was because those were the most plausible outcomes to me assuming this team plays up to its potential. They didn’t, and we lost. It is as simple as that. Maybe it comes down to the played out and lazy narrative that they are a ‘soft dome team who can’t win on the road’, or, perhaps it is as I have previously asserted and they are adjusting to new personnel and regaining the time lost over the preseason to acclimate to one another and the scheme. Diatribe over, on to the Queens (my family is from Minnesota and THEY call them that..so get over it 🙂 )
The loss of Adrian Peterson for the Vikings has been and will be covered ad nauseum as it pertains to the product on the field. To me it will manifest itself in one of two ways and this game’s outcome could well be decided by which one it is and how the Saints react to it. Option number 1: the Vikings attempt to run their normal offense through Matt Asiata and pray that left tackle Matt Kalil isn’t the second coming of Charles Brown like he was last week (got absolutely abused by Chandler Jones who is comparable to Junior). Option number 2: the Vikings abandon their traditional play style and attempt to run a much more Norv Turner like West Coast system with quick passes, screens, and draws, and attempt to take advantage of the Saints biggest weakness to this point…giving way too much cushion in fear of the long ball. As the teams currently stand if they Vikings chose option A like they did last week at home…it would be the same result as last week, and if they chose it in NO…shield your kids eyes folks this is gonna be ugly. The key turning point for this game revolves around whether the Vikings choose option 2 early, and if they Saints are able to counter it.
The Achilles heel of the Saints defense to this point has been twofold, poise (covered in my previous piece) and a morbid fear of getting beat over the top causing them to give enormous cushions to receivers underneath. What the Saints need to realize is that a ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ still leaves you dead. I would rather have a defense play with the aggression and confidence of last year’s unit, than one that seems afraid it won’t live up to expectations, which is what we have seen so far. If they can guard the underneath routes and not allow the Vikings to get going early in the game it is entirely possible that the Saints merely had the previously ordained beat down on Lay-Way and just finished paying it off. The Saints have one of the best offenses in the NFL after playing two games on the road (and one against a very legit defense) and are as dangerous at home as any team in league history. The only question this far has been on the defense and they now face a quarterback who was sacked 8 times last week, is missing his biggest weapon (stop me if you have heard THAT before) and is a well known turnover machine. Home cooking has always been a panacea for the Saints and I expect it to come through once again even without the suddenly explosive incarnation of Ingram (we LOVE him when he is angry).
Here are the match ups by position group as I see it:
Offensive Line: Probably the biggest bright spot for the Saints so far has been the play of the offensive line which looks to have picked up right where it left off at the end of last year. Second year pro Terron Armstead has all the makings of an All-Pro and continues to improve and the addition of heady veteran Jonathan ‘Goody’ Goodwin has had a settling effect on the line as a whole. In comparison the Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil had done his best to make former Saint Charles Brown look like a competent lineman. The rest of the line is either more of the same or at least average, advantage Saitns.
Defensive Line: The Saints are by far the better team in this regard, their least effective down lineman to this point has been Brodrick Bunkley…and even he has outperformed what Minnesota has. The only player on Minnesota who slightly worries me is rookie Scott Crichton. I know him from Oregon State and while he is still definitely developing, he does resemble departed end Jared Allen in the motor department. That tells you how big of a threat they should be…an unknown rookie is honestly the biggest threat. Akiem Hicks and Cam Jordan both have pro-bowl potential and Junior Gallete has, to this point, mostly been a DE and should feast on Kalil. Playmakers vs none…advantage Saints.
Secondary: until I see something that doesn’t remind me of the cheese on my swiss and mushroom burger…it’s a wash they are both awful. The obvious caveat to that is the Saints have 3 legit pro-bowl level talents in their secondary and the Vikings dont, but since not much has been seen up to this point I won’t give them credit for ‘could have’ . Advantage the receiver…all of them.
Linebackers: Chad greenway and Anthony Barr both have a ton of upside whereas the Saints best linebacker is one-dimensional (a tackling machine, but still one dimensional) so I am going to give a slight edge here to the Vikings, but it’s the difference between above average and at average.
Quarterback: …..no. just no. next position.
Runningbacks: oh what a difference a week makes. AP is the unquestionable best back in the game today, he plays and he can be the equalizer. The Vikings switched positions and decided to sit him afterall so the Saints have a huge advantage here with one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Even with the loss of Mark Ingram, Khiry is going to show everyone he isn’t fake…he is for real.
Receivers: To me this match-up comes down to two similar players in Rookie Brandin Cooks and second year guy Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson is the more explosive returner, while Cooks (even as a rookie) is a more polished receiver. Both have shown an ability to make big plays in the run game as well as the passing game and while it hurts me to say this…at this point in time I am going to call it even. (Colston and Greg Jennings are too similar as far as impact at this point in the season for me to change the ruling based on them)
Tight End: Kyle Rudolph is a very talented young tight end with a lot of potential and upside, really he is a slightly less talented version of last week’s (potential) matchup of Jordan Cameron…Jimmy is the best in the league and has even improved his blocking. I rest my case: advantage Saints.
X-Factor: ‘Home cooking’. If being back in the dome fixes what has ailed the saints up to this point this game will be sad…and beautiful depending on who you root for. If it doesn’t and this team really is flawed at the corner/linebacker/defensive line positions… then we are in for a long season. The turning point for the Saints season as well as this matchup is whether or not being back at home helps them get it together and build some positive momentum.
Coaches: SP has been more passive than pre-bounty SP at times and there has been more time management issues than we all remember (partially due to rose colored glasses so to speak), but he is still a proven commodity in the league as a HC while Mike Zimmer is getting his first shot at it. Advantage: Saints.
Prediction: Ralph isn’t forced to drink the entire Houston supply of liquor this week. Big fat chart of fun is also reborn and Saints win comfortably.
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