Saints Nation Mailbag 10/9

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Many thanks to those of you that send me some questions on Facebook and Twitter. With the bye week upon us this is a good time to tackle some of the things about the team you are curious about. Let’s dive right into it:

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOh man, I could spend 1,500 words on this but I’ll try to simplify things. First off, I don’t think the issues are as big as they seem. The Saints played a horrible game and got embarrassed in Dallas, no two ways around that one. But if you look at the Falcons and Browns games they were very close to stealing both and played reasonably well at times. Remember the Falcons needed two kicks over 50 yards at the end and a fumble by Colston to win their game, and the Browns needed to convert a 4th and 9 to survive their game. I think the Saints are playing ok on the road save the Dallas game. And look, it’s really hard to win on the road in the NFL for anybody and getting a little lucky at the end of games (like the Saints did in Tampa) is all they need. I think the biggest key is not digging themselves a big early hole on the road. They got off to slow starts against both Cleveland and Dallas. And while they were able to get back into the Browns game, the slow start came back to haunt them. The reality with this team is that their biggest weakness is their defense, and when you get down multiple scores in the 1st quarter the offense is starting to feel a lot of pressure to make something happen quickly with the crowd getting amped and going nuts on them thanks to a fast start. Being able to come back at that point also necessitates multiple stops defensively which this team has struggled to do. I think we’ve seen enough of this 2014 version of the Saints to know they run the ball very well, they can pass efficiently (though maybe not as well vertically), and they have trouble stopping opposing offenses. These teams that jump all over the Saints and quickly go up 14-0 or 17-0 really give them little chance, so it’s critical that they start the game by at least getting a field goal on that opening drive and maybe holding the opponent to a field goal as well early, allowing that early game crowd buzz to settle in. It may sound cliche but they can’t play into these games, getting off to a steady start on the road carries greater importance.  

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The Saints still like him as a project but it’s hard to argue against you at this point. As Saints fans our expectations of Toon developing should be finished. In fact, if the Saints get ravaged at a position later in the season and they stay healthy at receiver, I could see Toon being a roster casualty this year. Toon is a perfect example of a guy that has the speed, size and measurables to be a star, but he just can’t put the route concepts and timing to practice. Never say never in the NFL, I was ready to give up on guys like Jermon Bushrod and Jon Stinchcomb when they came into their own, but all signs point to Nick Toon never making an impact in a Saints uniform.

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsI assume you’re talking about him being ranked highest in the last game? That’s because he actually played really well, getting a pass breakup and an INT. His coverage grade for the season on PFF is -1.0 which is lower than Brian Dixon (though higher than Keenan Lewis and Corey White). And that tells you all you need to know about PFF. Who in their right mind would think P-Rob is playing better than Keenan? I’ll tell you a little anecdote about PFF. I actually like their site and respect what they do – it’s hard work. But it’s impossible for them to get it all right. I had a Saints player I know well once tell me that he got a game ball from the coaches for playing so well and the next day after they looked at tape he graded out at 90%. The highest they graded him all year. PFF came out with a negative grade for him later that week. I can tell you personally from grading that it’s impossible to get it completely right without knowing the assignment and official play call. A guy “blowing it” often can look that way, but really they are doing their job and the guy that’s supposed to rotate over doesn’t and it makes them look like the guilty party.  

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Unfortunately he’s been injured and the Saints moved on. For better or for worse the Saints will never keep a player based on the investment they make. They’ve made it clear that regardless of your draft status, contract or whatever, they will keep the best guys. Doesn’t matter if you’re a 35 year old center or an undrafted rookie corner. Keeping Brian Dixon over Champ Bailey illustrates that point. Linebacker is pretty healthy right now and they just don’t need an extra one. You’ve also probably heard by now that the reason for his sudden release was sleeping through meetings more than once. Obviously there’s an issue there. Sean Payton is big on accountability and professionalism and you’ll remember he shipped Donte Stallworth out of town after his best season as a receiver almost immediately after the same issues came up with him. So I support the decision, you can’t have irresponsible slackers hanging around. Still, it hurts to lose your 4th round pick with no compensation in the same year as he’s now a member of the Bengals. Roger Goodell may as well have just taken that pick away from the Saints too.

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsDid you know the Saints have the #1 offense in the NFL right now in terms of yards? I’ll admit I had a double take too. I think the offensive line and the running backs are playing as well as they’ve ever played under Sean Payton, seriously. Terron Armstead has been great at left tackle and the guards and Strief are as solid as ever. Goodwin has been very good at center too when he’s been healthy, so hopefully after the bye he’s back to normal. Even without Mark Ingram the Saints’ running game is playing as well as any of us could ask for. I think the main issue is the turnovers, but otherwise the offense is moving the ball fine. Brees definitely needs to clean up some mistakes and I think the lack of reps in training camp due to the oblique injury may be partially responsible. You wonder if that injury is still bothering him a little bit on those deep throws. The receiver play is without a doubt the biggest question mark, but that’s really no different from last year. Colston is getting older and the play from everyone else is really inconsistent. Hopefully Jimmy Graham is fine because he’s obviously a huge piece of the puzzle.  

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Not Nick Toon! I tell you, if Stanley Jean-Baptiste could have a second half of the season emergence like Armstead did last year, that could give this team a massive boost. That’s a player I’m keeping my eye on for the light to come on. If the Saints continue to struggle at #2 corner he will eventually get his chance. Brian Dixon will get his chances, too, so he’s another one. I don’t know if Brandin Cooks is considered a project but he’s only going to get better, and if Goodwin continues to struggle with injury we could see Tim Lelito develop. If I have to pick one name, though, I’m banking on SJB.

 

From Facebook:

Charlie Bailey Do think Kenny Vaccaro is still recovering from the injury last year and maybe that’s why isn’t playing as physical?

Yes, I do. And yes, I think that’s why he’s been slower and missed tackles. He admitted as much after the Bucs game. Look the guy shattered his ankle/leg very badly, it was a gruesome injury, and sometimes it takes time to bounce back from something like that. I bet he’ll get better and better, and the bye week will be good for him. Unfortunately this defense was supposed to be all about this deadly Byrd/Vaccaro tandem and part of the reason it hasn’t worked out so far is both were recovering from surgery and still rusty. Unfortunately we will never know in 2014 what that healthy tandem would look like, maybe in 2015…

Asher Joseph Silbermann Is Drew Brees in decline? If not, why does he look so off this year?

I think his oblique injury may be lingering a little bit and I think the lack of reps in training camp wasn’t ideal and it’s affected his performance just a bit so far this season. Brees is a timing quarterback and he missed a lot of time developing chemistry with his receivers when he was out. So I guess I answered the second question first. Whether or not it’s a “decline” kind of depends on how he recovers and how the rest of his career plays out. His injury could get worse or completely go away in a week. Brees isn’t doing great on the deep ball right now but he’s been pretty darn effective everywhere else with the short and intermediate throws. I’ll take an elite quarterback on every throw inside 30 yards, wouldn’t you? He has a 68.8% completion percentages and his QB rating so far is 91.8. That is totally respectable. 6 interceptions in 5 games is a lot more than I like to see, but 3 are from the Bucs game alone. But I don’t really see any signs that the end is nigh here. He’s still making plays with a generally subpar receiving core. Even without Graham the Saints moved the ball well passing on the Bucs. Brees just needs to clean up the mistakes, hopefully heal up a bit during the bye week and I think he’ll be fine.

Kiki Clark Any ideas on what is up w/ our anemic pass rush? It was such a strength last season. Junior’s fat contract have anything to do w/ his soft play?

The pass rush has been a disappointment, no doubt about it. Last year it was all about the Cam Jordan and Junior Galette tandem. Without those two the Saints wouldn’t have had much of a pass rush. This year every team they’ve played so far is doubling Jordan. In fact, I even saw him triple teamed at one point against the Bucs (with a running back chipping him). So when that happens, Galette is one on one and he needs to make the opposition pay. Galette has 3 sacks this season in 5 games. So it’s not like he’s been awful. He’s on pace for 9.6 sacks this season. Not awesome, but not awful either. He’s also faced arguably the best tackle in football in the Cowboys game. The main thing is the interior guys like Akiem Hicks, John Jenkins and rotational guys like Glenn Foster and Tyrunn Walker need to come alive. They don’t need to get a ton of sacks but if they can disrupt the pocket/interior a little bit, then it will make teams pay more for doubling Jordan. Right now doubling Jordan is mostly working, so someone has to step up. And Rob Ryan is reluctant to blitz when the run defense has been such a mess.

Kiki Clark Will we ever be able to conquer or road woes? Is Drew a dome QB?

See my response above to Ryan at the top of the post. As far as Drew being a “Dome QB”, there’s no question he’s better at home. All QBs are. His career rating in the Superdome is well over 100, so he’s pretty much up for discussion as the best quarterback of all time at home. On the road his career rating is above 90. So he’s not the best ever, but he’s still good to very good historically. I think the drop off is natural and the narrative is overblown. The reason the Saints struggle so much on the road is because they’re a dynamic passing team and it’s easier to steal a game on the road by running the ball and grinding it out.

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