WOW!!! Wasn’t that beautiful guys? Well.. after the first couple of huge plays by Green Bay anyway. Take out Lacy’s screen play and the Cobb TD and the Saints absolutely DOMINATED the Green Bay Packers in a way we haven’t seen since last year’s game against Carolina. Speaking of the kittycats we play them tonight thanks to Roger (Yes, I know he doesn’t actually make the schedule but I’m blaming him because I can)!
I recently re-watched the last two games by the Saints and the last two by the Panthers and if there is one thing I can say for sure it’s that this is not the team from last year. The Saints are still a topsy turvey team and I’m not sure they have turned the corner yet, although the last two weeks show a ton of good, but they might not need to. If the same Panthers team show up that has been there the last couple of weeks the Saints need only manage to not beat themselves and they will win. With that said there are a number of things that have to be taken into account before we can simply declare victory even with the euphoria that naturally follows such a classic hometown beat down in the dome.
It’s division game: division games can be crazy; sometimes you get an unusual shellacking, like what the Falcons did to the hapless Bucs, or it can be a game where one team plays unusually well and pushes a vastly superior team like what the Bucs did to us. The question is what kind of scenario will play out this Thursday? Will the Saints play as well on the road as they did against Detroit for all but two plays, (which would result in a win) or will the Panthers have their best game of the year? Personally I believe that the Saints are going to get up big early and the Panthers are going to implode (our grader extraordinaire Andrew Juge disagrees with me that the Saints can win by double digits on the road… I will make my twitter pic a sad panda if I’m wrong). It’s a cliche, but one that fits this game perfectly, it is all going to come down to the match-ups.
The match-ups: The Saints are ahead in literally every position group except one. They have better receivers, better running backs (even with Williams coming back) a better pass rush, a MUCH better secondary (sorry Roman), the better quarterback by leaps and bounds, and also a better offensive line. The Panthers have as big of an advantage at linebacker as we have at quarterback, but it remains their only advantage outside of home field.
Because it is an away game and the Saints struggle with those the two biggest match-ups in this game are both up front. If the Saints can get pressure with only 4 (and rarely 5) rushers they will be able to squash the Carolina offense, and if the o-line plays like it did the second half against Carolina last year… it’s over. This time there is no Greg Hardy and no rookie for him to feast on for a half, if the Saints can keep Drew upright and force them to blitz they will be able to run Mark right up the gut for huge gains. Let’s remember that Carolina is almost as bad of a run defense as Green Bay is, but they are so much worse offensively that they may give the Saints even more opportunities.
Key to the game: Andrew really said it best in this week’s podcast; find Roman Harper, find who he has in coverage, throw it to them. They should try to get Cooks lined up against him, or Jimmy, as much as possible. I firmly believe that if they Saints get up early the Panthers will fold, but if the game starts slow or the Saints make big mistakes early this could turn into a grindfest, which favors Carolina.
Bottom line: The Saints are the better team coming off a huge Sunday night win and have a chance to firmly seize the division lead, however the Panthers are the more desperate team and that could cause them to play out of their minds in desperation. If the Saints can manage to avoid the self-killing plays that have plagued them on the road all season they should win, but Carolina is still opportunistic and has the deadly division rival/home field advantage factors to bolster their chances. DeAngelo Williams returning is a bit of an X-factor because he always does mean nasty horrible things to the Saints, but the Panthers o-line should negate some of that…at the end of the day I’m choosing to believe in the Saints here and that they have firmly pulled their heads from their behinds.
Saints win 40-13 as I told Andrew (please Drew… don’t make a panda).
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