I start writing this as I just got done watching the 49ers lose a soul crushing game at home to the Rams 13-10. They did this by fumbling the ball from the 1 into the end zone with 2 seconds left in the game when they were going for the win. The 49ers are now just 4-4 and a team really struggling on offense as they come to the Superdome. The Rams were last in the NFL with 6 sacks going into that game and they were able to get 8 against this 49ers’ offensive line. Now the Rams are a better d-line than their sack totals have shown so far, but still, this is promising for the Saints’ d-line who has shown 2013 form the last couple of weeks. It got me wondering about this matchup and while there’s been some roster turnover (including the Saints making the 9ers’ starting center their own), the teams are fairly similar.
Now you’ll remember the 49ers came in to the Superdome in mid November last year and lost 23-20. That was the infamous “roughing the passer game” where the media when nuts for the flag thrown on Ahmad Brooks that likely changed the outcome of the game. On the Saints opening drive, they ran 1 time on the first play and then threw 4 passes. On drive #2, they ran twice and threw on third down before punting. The following drive would see the Saints go up 7-0 on a drive that featured 9 passes and 3 runs. The Saints didn’t abandon the run entirely, but very quickly they figured out short passing was going to be easier on them getting hard yards.
By the end of the game the Saints had passed 43 times and rushed 23 times. They still ran at a decent clip (4.0 per carry) but they set that up by really pounding the short passing game which opened up some runs over the course of the game when the 49ers dared them to.
The 49ers may be lacking some confidence offensively but they are a still tough as nails on defense. They just held the Rams to 3.4 yards per carry and 102 yards passing (yet somehow lost). Going into that Rams game the 49ers had the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL and it may be better coming into this week considering the lack of yardage given up. Yards will be hard to come by and the Saints won’t be able to rely on the efficient short passing to Darren Sproles as a wrinkle.
11 of Brees’ 30 completions against the 49ers last year were to backs, so that was an extension of the run game. Sproles had 4 of those 11. The Saints were able to hit Meachem over the top twice in this game, so that will be something to look for out of our field stretchers. Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea are hard hitting physical safeties that can be beat over the top.
The big question, though, is whether the Saints can commit to the passing game to set up the run without Darren Sproles in the mix. That question becomes even more significant if Pierre Thomas can’t go (he caught 5 passes in this game last year). Is Travaris Cadet really someone that can make an impact in this game? Or do the Saints lean on Mark Ingram again against a defense that is very tough to run on? I think much like the game in Carolina this may be tough sledding for the Saints’ ground game, particularly if the Saints remain banged up at center and right tackle.
The 49ers only have 13 sacks in 8 games this year so the pass rush is not as scary as you might think. Justin Smith and Ahmad Brooks remain the biggest threats on 3rd and long. The only offense that really lit them up this year was the Broncos, because they light up almost everyone. That said, interesting to note that the pass to run ratio was 1:1 for Denver in that game. 27 rushes and 27 passes. They were able to gash them with big passing plays early and then run it on them late.
I think the key here is patience. Points may be hard to come by but defensively the Saints can have success against this team. The key will be preventing Colin Kaepernick from hurting you with his legs. I could see this game playing out a lot like the Carolina game in that running the ball will be tough, but the defense can control the game if they tackle well and prevent the quarterback from escaping the pocket. Offensively there’s once again a premium on ball security because you don’t want to make life easier on a struggling offense. It’s ok to punt or take a sack, just don’t give the 49ers a short field with which to get points. This will be a much stiffer challenge for the Saints than you might think.
So that means a quick hit passing game to open things up both deep and in the run game for the offense. That puts a little more risk on ball security, but as stated earlier it’s key to not turn the ball over. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the Saints try to pound Ingram early and have success with it, but I’m not expecting it. On the flip side, a couple early scores could send the 49ers into a real tailspin because I’m not sure that offensive line can produce a multiple possession comeback right now.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
