Carolina was the first time all year that I claimed the Saints were playing an inferior opponent and should win handily… and they did. They have only played two other teams in their league through 8 games (Det, GB) and through the next 5 weeks they will play 4. Of all of those teams, not one of them has as much hype, history, or emotional baggage attached to it as the upcoming game against the 49ers. I am originally from the Bay Area and know WAY too many 49ers fans for my own tastes; and neither they nor my own nightmares will let me forget the atrocity that was the end of the 2011 playoff game. All I have to say about that debacle are two words ZERO BLITZ… if I see one this Sunday is may cause a rage induced seizure.
With all of that said I stated at the bye that I felt the Saints had what it takes to be like a ‘phoenix’ and rise from the ashes of their horrid start. They are one Corey White gamble away from 5-3 and currently sit at 4-4 with firm control of the division. Last week’s game was crucial to the Saints to prove to themselves that they can win on the road in a hostile environment, but this week’s game is crucial in a different way. If the Saints look anything like the team that shellacked Green Bay, and hurped and durped its way to a dominant win against Carolina, they have the chance to make a major statement to themselves and the rest of the league: we are coming!
The Saints and the 49ers are a very interesting match-up because both teams possess the formula to bother the opponent. Before getting into the match-ups as a whole, let’s look at where each team has its advantages:
49ers advantages:
– linebacker play (bigger if Willis plays, but even if he doesn’t)
-pass rush (anyone remember Brooks and the clothesline from hell?)
-receivers (believe it or not)
-desperation
-running QB
Saints advantages:
-QB…nuff said
-receivers
-pass rush (14 sacks in two games given up by SF)
-tight end (narrow, but it’s there)
-Dome field advantage
-running game (say whaaattt?)
How it all comes together:
The Saints are at home where they always play better, on the heels of two strong team wins that got their season back on track, and the most important thing for them in this game is to remain ‘the hunted’. There can be no resting on their laurels and absolutely no letting down in the passion and effort department. Why? As Ralph Malbrough has pointed out, the Saints are lucky enough to play in the armpit of the NFL (I’m paraphrasing), whereas a team like San Fran is also sitting at 4-4 and is essentially playing for their season. Never, ever, underestimate a desperate team (something I hope the Saints still are). Provided the Saints don’t allow SF to have the emotional edge and instead choose to ‘punch them in the mouth’ they should be able to continue their winning ways at home.
SF does present some problems though; they have one of the best defenses in the NFL (number 2 currently), have an extremely talented WR corps with which to attack the Saints, and the confidence to try to play like they’re the home team. The upside for the Saints is that they recently beat a team with a better receiving core (GB) and what may be a better (at worst equal) defense was dominated for the vast majority of a road game without Jimmy Graham.
What is most promising though is the Saints defense; it was only a few weeks ago some Saints writers were wondering if we would ever get any of the breaks other teams seemed to fall rear end first into (for the record that isn’t how they said it on the podcast 😉 ). They have forced 2 turnovers in each of the last three games and Cam Jordan and Akiem Hicks finally look like themselves. That alone may be enough to win the game for the Saints with the glorious insanity that is the Dome crowd, and especially against an offensive line that is simply not very good. If the Saints get a rush going Kaepernick may simply not have time to hit Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Michael Crabtree, and the always dangerous Anquan Boldin. The Saints defense has actually played some very good running backs in the last few weeks and has mostly kept them contained so I am not going to label Frank Gore as the biggest threat for SF (which of course means he is going to go off).
Head to head:
Quarterback: advantage Saints because it’s a HOFer versus a young kid still figuring things out…but that young kid is the most physically gifted person on the field so he could be very dangerous.
Runningback(s): I’m giving the advantage to the Saints because of their O-line and the fact that Ingram has played great as of late, but Gore is one hell of a player.
Offensive line: The Saints line is one of the best in the league and they also have the always reliable (and former niner) Jonathan Goodwin. Young up and comer Terron Armstead is proving to be one of the studs of this league at his position, but the questionable health of Zach Strief is DEFINITELY a concern.
Receivers: I am going to call this one a wash because young guns Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills give the Saints more explosive options, but the Niners have the more experienced veterans. The Fact that one group is catching from Drew and the other Kaepernick gives the young guys an equalizer. Colston has also looked more and more like himself which makes a BIG difference (I am giving up on my wish not to see Meachem on the field, but hope he plays well just to spite me).
Tight Ends: Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis are a lot more equal than most are either aware of, or will acknowledge, but the Saints simply have more depth at the position so I’m giving them a slight lead.
Defensive Line: The Saints line has the second best player at this position group in Cameron Jordan, and possibly the third best in Akiem Hicks (when he shows up), but ‘country strong’ Justin Smith is such a disruptive force that the 49ers are getting the edge on this one.
Linebackers: 49ers and it isn’t close. The only thing that could make this more of a mismatch in their favor would be if Bowman was playing and healthy. Even if you count Skuta and Brooks as ‘linemen’ because they rush a lot…the mere fact that Patrick Willis might play gives them the edge. I like the Saints linebackers and this isn’t an insult to them AT ALL, it’s just a fact that in this one regard there is no comparison to be made.
Safeties: There has been some spirited debate between some Saints fans and Niners fans on who got the better rookie safety last year, and while we all know which side I’m taking, it is a legitimate question. I’m going to call this one a wash for two reasons; neither group is great (if Byrd were here and healthy this a no contest just for the record) and the Saints have Ball who has been less than stellar so far.
Corners: other than the O-line’s I think this position group will be the deciding factor for both teams. Simply put the Niners don’t have an above average corner in the group. That isn’t to say they are horrid, just not anything to talk about, but with the exception of Keenan Lewis you could say the same about the Saints…but we have him. Advantage Keenan, with the caveat that if Corey and PRob play like they did the last 2 weeks, we will have a substantial advantage in this department.
The Bottom Line: These teams know each other and they should both be amped up for this game for a number of reasons. I think there is every chance that the Saints and Niners have another close game that comes down to execution in the fourth quarter, but I think the Saints win in the end. I will say that if either Jimmy, Brandin, or Kenny goes off early this game could turn into a route just because the Niners are a team on the edge mentally, but unlike last week I am not confident that will happen so no prediction (other than a win of course… c’mon.. we’re at home).
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