The Saints beat the Panthers 28-10 in Carolina a little over a month ago. Based on how that went and where the two teams stand at this point, I fully expect the Saints to win this game. I know that seems like a crazy to say in a season like this where this Saints team has been nothing short of totally unpredictable. In fact, expecting the unexpected has been the norm this year and if you’re going by that guidance then the Panthers will find a way to pull this off. But putting aside craziness and looking at this through a clear lens, there’s just no way the Saints should lose this game. Of course they can, of course this is the NFL, and of course they have to show up. But expecting a win considering what’s at stake and considering the quality both teams have shown this year is more than fair. With that said, the Saints have clearly demonstrated they can’t be trusted in any game unless they’re playing close to their best. Let’s hope the stakes will help motivate them. Here’s five things I’ll be watching:
1. Does Drew Brees maintain current form?
Brees is in “Peak Form Brees” at the moment. Over the last two games he’s averaged 338.5 yards passing, 75% completions, to go with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. This is bad timing for the porous Carolina secondary. Brees threw for 297 yards against the Panthers in Carolina and all signs point to him besting that effort in the Dome. You’ll remember that the Saints started that game with two turnovers on their first two drives. That’s exactly how Carolina can level the playing field. So part of maintaining current form is continuing to take care of the football. If Brees picked up where he left off in Pittsburgh, there is no reason why the Saints shouldn’t be able to put up a lot of yards and points.
2. Is Cam Newton completely shut down again?
In case you missed it earlier this week, I detailed how Cam Newton has done against Rob Ryan through 3 games. Needless to say, Ryan has Newton’s number so far. If this happens for a fourth straight time, you have to assume he’s on to something here. Newton is playing behind a makeshift offensive line that’s underperforming, he’s playing really banged up, his chemistry with his receivers is poor and this has been his worst passing season as a pro. But the Saints are the 31st ranked defense in the NFL and they’ve been a cure for a lot of struggling quarterbacks this season. So this could really go either way. Either Newton could surprise and have one of his better games of the year against a pretty awful defense, or Rob Ryan could once again make him look stupid. I’m hoping for the latter. Turnovers in particular would be nice. This defense struggles so much that turnovers are even more crucial because it’s a cheap way to get off the field.
3. How does the Saints back rotation play out?
With Khiry Robinson back the Saints now have the three headed monster of Ingram, Pierre and Khiry back at their disposal. Ingram was limited most of the week and he’s banged up from a heavy workload, so I’m curious to see if Payton goes back to his standard rep distribution like the one we saw at the beginning of the season. Or do the Saints continue to lean very heavily on Ingram? I was surprised by how little Pierre Thomas played last week. Interestingly the Panthers yield 4.4 yards per carry this season, which is very high (Saints yield 4.5 yards per carry), but when the two teams played in Carolina the Saints averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. I expect the Saints to run the ball much better this time but we’ll have to see who they plan to use and how much.
4. Jimmy Graham – decoy or playmaker?
Graham going catchless was a big topic of conversation last week. Who could have imagined a game where he played the entirety without catching one pass and having it lead to five offensive touchdowns? The Panthers suggested this week that they would not put as much focus on Graham as the Steelers did because it would open themselves up to too much other matchup problems. Graham’s 7 catch for 83 yard performance in Carolina suggests he’ll be a lot more involved this week. One thing I know for sure is that if Roman Harper is in single coverage against him, Brees shouldn’t think twice about pulling the trigger.
5. Junior Galette has bark, but does he have any bite?
Galette said some really stupid things in the media this week. If the defense plays horrible and the Saints lose, I think he’s exposed himself to the potential for some really serious backlash. On the flipside, if he puts together a multi sack performance and leads the charge in an impressive win, the comments won’t be met with as much venom by the fan base. So I’m really curious to see how he plays this week. Does he back up all that talk, or does he dog it and embarrass himself? I think there’s a lot of pressure on Galette to own it this week.
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