History of the 13th and 31st pick overall

With two picks in the first round, at least currently, the draft process is going to be even more exciting for us as Saints fans than it usually is. As evidenced by how much you’ve already seen out there in the way of mocks, rookie evals, draft boards from this site and many others… this isn’t go away. If anything, it’s only going to ramp up as we close in on being a month away from the big day. I’ll be the first to admit that the posturing is already getting exhausting but when has relative lack of substance ever stopped the Saints Nation train from running? With the Saints picking 13th and 31st, I wanted to get a grasp at how successful these picks have been.

Here is the history of the 13th pick.

Some huge hits at this slot. Notables include Aaron Donald, Sheldon Richardson, Tony Gonzalez, John Abraham, Takeo Spikes, Franco Harris, Kellen Winslow and many others. Worth noting the Saints have picked 13th overall numerous times. Here is their history:

Now granted, Middleton and Scott both were featured in our “worst Saint ever” bracket last year. They were colossal busts in Saints draft history. More recently, though, the 13th overall pick has been kind to the Saints. Brown, Fields and Johnson all made Pro Bowls, and Stallworth gave the Saints inconsistent performances to go with his best 945 yard, 7 touchdown season. If I’m looking at the Saints history alone at 13, I’d say 3 were clear hits, 1 was a mediocre pick, and 2 were complete failures. So the Saints are batting .500. If we’re talking about recent history since 1994, 75% of the picks have been great. In fact, Fields is the last drafted Saints linebacker to make a Pro Bowl.

But wait that’s not all, in an effort to truly go all out geek mode, I’ve given each pick since 1990 a letter grade that will work like this. A = home run pick (4.00). B = solid NFL player (3.00). C = average/mediocre pick (2.00). D = bad pick (1.00) and F = complete bust (0.00).

For the sake of this exercise I’d rate Johnson and Brown as an A, Fields as an A-, Stallworth as a C+, Scott and Middleton as F’s. So the Saints’s historical GPA with this pick is 2.33. Granted this is by no means a scientific or valuable math equation, but it’s a quick way to consider how successful the pick has been. When viewing it with a larger data set, and against the 31st pick it will take more meaning. Keep in mind I did this same exercise with the 27th pick last year and it yielded a 2.21 GPA since 1990. That sounds bad, but when you consider “C” as an average player, your odds are decent of getting someone better than average at 2.21. So how did the NFL do with this pick since 1990?

That GPA is 3.16. I’ll spare you the individual grades I gave to each player for their NFL career since 1990 that was drafted 13th overall. But it’s pretty telling if you ask me. Based on recent history, since 1990, the chances of a hit at 13 are fairly high. Consider that I did the same exercise for the 27th pick (since 1990) last year and at 2.21 it was almost a full point lower. Quite a difference picking 14 slots lower makes. But how did 31st fare in comparison?

Here is the history of the 31st pick.

The Saints have never picked 31st overall, surprisingly enough. Notable names include Doug Martin, Jerry Hughes, Greg Olsen, Nnamdi Asomugha and Al Wilson.

Here I only went back to 1999 because prior to that the 31st pick was officially a “2nd rounder” which made the research more complicated. The GPA for this round was 2.90. So surprisingly the 31st pick overall, typically taken by the runner up in the Super Bowl, has been much better is recent years than the 27th pick. It’s also worse than the 13th pick, but the recent historical data suggests the drop off is not as big as you’d think.

Some parting bullet notes to also consider:

• Of the last 25 13th overall picks, 15 were defensive players and 10 were offensive. So that tells us after a run of offensive playmakers in the top 10, 13 tends to lean defense. Interestingly 7 of those 25 picks were linebackers, the most of any one position. Defensive tackle and wide receiver were next with 5.
• At 31st overall, the last 16 picks have yielded 9 defensive players and 7 offensive players. Interestingly that draft slot has leaned defense as well in recent years. The position most drafted here was tied between cornerback, running back and linebacker at 3.
• Of the 25 graded players at 13th overall, only four graded at a C or less level. That suggests the Saints have an 84% chance of landing a “better than average player” at this spot. For what it’s worth, 10 of those players (or 45%) received a flat A.
• Of the 16 graded players at 31st overall, 6 graded at the C level or worse. That still suggests the Saints have a 62.5% chance of landing a “better than average player” at 31. 6 players also received a flat A, so at 37.5% that’s a really good chance at landing a stud for that low in the draft.

So based on all this information, how are you feeling about the 13th and 31st picks? Better or worse?