As the night of the Draft approaches, you can expect the number of ‘final’ mock drafts to increase, pet theories and conspiracies to run rampant, and various other ways for all of us interested in it to do our best Miss Cleo impersonations. The truth is that none of us have any idea how the draft is going to shake out because none of us are in our favorite teams draft rooms. I don’t think it’s possible to fully predict the way a team will go, and there are always a few surprises on draft night, but with that said i do think there are some rules that may help us get a better grasp on who our team might be looking at (obviously in this case it’s the Saints).
Rule number 1: Know your team.
Very similar to the ‘know your personnel’ rule of coaching the idea behind this is simple. Before any of us has even a prayer of guessing how the Saints are going to draft we need to take as close to an unbiased view of the team itself as we can. That means you have to try to go beyond personal prejudices and preferences and look at each position group in a vacuum. It’s what coaches attempt to do when they look at a player based on that players individual value, and then also try to factor in growth potential and overall fit with the team. When all the factors of gathered and quantified to the best of their ability they are then able to make a value based assessment of the team as a whole, and to identify positions of NEED versus positions of WANT.
Taking a direct look at the Saints there are a couple of positions that are in need of top level talent if we want to have any hope of being a serious contender this year. Those positions are OLB, DL, ILB, OL. The Saints have decent depth at most of those positions, but if they can leave this draft with a difference maker (or at least a starter) at three out of those four positions it will be a great draft regardless of number of picks. Yes, the Saints need young talent they can develop, but I am a big believer in quality over quantity, and with 9 picks in the Draft we should be able to come up with both.
If we want to put those positions in order of need I believe that it goes: ILB, DL, OL, OLB.
The Saints don’t have a quality player at the ILB position right now, and that just so happens to be one of the most important positions on a defense. We also need at least one more quality defensive lineman to shore up our run defense and to assist with rushing the passer. The cumulative effect of a quality DT/NT can’t be ignored and it can make players at other positions far more effective. I believe that our offensive line is actually ok, and honestly is going to be significantly better than last year. However, the Saints are extremely thin on the line and should take advantage of the fact that there is very good interior line depth available in the first few rounds this year. The fact that the position most mocked to the Saints is the one I have ranked 4th in importance is a little amusing to me. But, the reality is that we have an acceptable core of pass rushers right now, and outside of being a total idiot Junior is still one of the better speed rushers in the league.
The reason that position is mocked first so often is very simple. Quality. The top of the draft has the highest quality players at pass rushing positions this year, and because it is a major position of need, the fact that the top talent fits into that role pushes them to the top of our board. I believe that the best possible pick for the team at 13 would be Eric Kendricks. He is the best player at our biggest position of need and has a promising future. However, the positional value difference between a player like Kendricks (at his position) and Vic Beasley (just as an example) is actually pretty vast. Beasley could be one of the best rushers in the entire league within a year’s time, but Kendricks while a very good player is not a Patrick Willis.
This is where ‘knowing your team’ becomes so important. The value of the top pass rushers in this draft as prospects is far greater at 13 than that of the top inside linebackers, and because of that its the position we are looking at most. In my opinion there are only two non pass-rushing players who are projected to go top 15 who I would take at 13 over the best OLB available. Danny Shelton could have such an impact on the interior of our defense that he makes our rush better by effect even if his numbers don’t necessarily reflect that. The other is Amari Cooper who I don’t believe has any chance of dropping out of the top 5, but on the off chance he does, you don’t ever pass on transcendent talents like his. Only a gamebreaker like Cooper makes you ignore your board…but like I said…no chance he is there.
The depth at ILB, OL, and DL are very good through the first three rounds so it is possible to get good to great players at all 3 after 13, but I don’t think there are any difference making players at OLB past the top few (as of now, who knows how guys will step up once they get into camp).
P.S. I am aware that I didn’t mention Corner and there is a reason for that. I only see 2 corners worth taking in the first round this year, and neither is even close to being worth it at 13 relative to the other talent that will be there. I also believe we have a FAR greater need in the slot than we do for depth on the outside (that remains to be seen of course).
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