There is always a ton of debate within a teams fanbase on what position should be taken and who the best fit is for their team (at least for the teams first round pick). Rule number one for me is ‘know your team’; simply put it means you dont take players high in the draft that are redundant to the team while ignoring the teams top needs. You take the best player who also fits the biggest position of need…even if it means ‘reaching’ on that player (obviously trading down and still getting that player is the ideal scenario). Rule 1 comes from the team perspective, but rule 2 focuses more on the players themselves.
Rule 2: Know who/what the player is.
To be fair to teams/GM’s/ and fans alike there is almost never any guarantee how a draft pick is going to turn out. Even a ‘sure thing’ like Andrew Luck, Julio Jones, or Clowney (lol) can get off to a rocky start, or even become a bust. It can be due to scheme, fit, injury, work ethic, something else, or some combination of things. The point is that we never truly KNOW what someone is going to become until they get into the league.
However, with that said, it’s important to pay attention to clues we get into who a player will become in the NFL before we start clamoring for the team to draft him. Ask questions like, what’s his work ethic, how much talent was around him, what are his measurables, is his technique there, has he shown flashes. You want to paint a picture in your head of what the player is now, but also try to extrapolate what they could become. I think the perfect example of this is the comparison between Amari Cooper and Kevin White in this year’s draft. Don’t let Kiper and Mcshay and their army of quoters confuse you, Cooper is the best player in this draft except MAYBE Williams. So often the media hype around a player at draft time gets blown so far out of proportion because a player exceeds expectations at the combine. Nine times out of ten that scenario is a major red flag to me. Just look back at Dee Millner; he was the consensus best corner in the draft and the only question was his speed, he blazed a sub 4.4 40 and became a top pick. The problem was that if you looked back at his tape he didnt play that fast, and he wasn’t particularly ‘smooth’, which is far more important for a Corner. Millner was physical and surrounded by tons of top talent, but take that away and he wasn’t a catalyst on the team…just a byproduct.
It could just be me personally, but the two things I try to gauge most when looking at a player are their ceiling and their floor. I want to get my best guess on just how high I think a players maximum potential is and then weigh that against the worst case scenario for the player. The player that shows the largest gap between the two to me in this year’s draft is Winston. He could become something truly special, but it’s just as likely that he makes Mark Sanchez look like Joe Montana. Personally I don’t think the reward is worth the risk in this case. It’s not just his off the field issues either, I don’t like parts of his game. There are players in the draft who are dropping solely because of off the field though in Peters and Gregory. I honestly would consider drafting Peters at 31 because he is flat-out the best corner in this draft. His issues stemmed from immaturity and also from a feeling of betrayal, his response was poor, but to me that is not a major red flag. Gregory is a pothead who has demonstrated a lack of discipline and poor judgment repeatedly…that isn’t a good risk to take for your top pick. Especially when he hasn’t demonstrated any real remorse for his stupidity. That’s really what I mean when I say know who a player is. Know the circumstances behind the ‘red flags’ beyond just knowing that they exist, because some kids were just that…kids doing stupid stuff.
Knowing what a player is really just requires the same process. Look beyond the numbers and look more into how and why that player got those numbers. You do that and you see a player like Trae Waynes who has very high potential, but also extremely high potential to be a bust and who simply isn’t worth the risk to us. Or a player like Shane Ray who I personally believe is going to make some team extremely disappointed (please please PLEASE let it be ATL). Both are high profile players, but if you look at the how and why their production was so high you probably don’t want them on the Saints. Ray is just Will Smith as an OLB (not bad…but not great either), and Waynes is Millner 2.0, which means that both players are big risks for a team that is trying to retool..not rebuild.
Hopefully at this point it doesn’t feel like I am just rambling, but if it does I apologize. I was trying to illustrate what I feel is a very simple ‘rule’, but I may very well have made it more complicated not less so I will try to summarize. Basically the idea behind drafting is finding players whose skillset and character is not only of a high level in its own right, but is also a fit for your teams needs and philosophies. Just because a guy looks/sounds like a great pick for your team doesn’t mean he would be productive here, and the reverse can also be true if you underestimate a player just because some ‘draft guru’ with a .003 batting average on picks says he can’t play. As in most things in life the how and why of a player being successful in college has a lot more to do with their ability to translate it to the pros than how well they do in the underwear Olympics or how hyped they are by ESPN.
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