Now that the draft is over I’ve been meaning to run through the position groups and give my thoughts on where things stand. Where the Saints are deep and where they are vulnerable. Kudos to Brian Pavek, who’s been going through positions groups and outlining both the changes and the expectations moving forward. There’s naturally some overlap with this post here but here I’m really just assessing the strength/weaknesses of every position group.
Quarterbacks
The addition of Garrett Grayson was a mild surprise to me in the draft. I knew drafting a quarterback was a very real possibility but I remained hopeful that was just smoke and mirrors in an attempt to throw others off the scent of what the Saints were really after. I thought the quarterback position was very stable before Grayson and certainly that’s more the case since. You’ve got a first ballot Hall of Famer that’s still a top 5 quarterback in Brees, you’ve got a capable backup in Luke McCown, a promising prospect with experience in Ryan Griffin and a rookie with a high ceiling. One of these four won’t be on the Saints this year and I guess that’s a good problem to have. If Grayson can come in and take over the #2 job as a rookie that will be ultra impressive and it could mean the Saints only keep two passers. Otherwise, I see them keeping three. So don’t rule out Griffin just yet. If he can beat out McCown for the backup role, he can still make this team.
Wide Receivers
Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks are the clear cut starters but how things play out after them is anyone’s guess. You figure there’s at least five roster spots to be had for this group and maybe six. Nick Toon seems like a lock by sheer virtue of the lack of competition. Then you have the undrafted promising guys from last year in Seantavius Jones and Brandon Coleman, who everyone seems to lump together. But Coleman at 6’6″ is the real freak in terms of size. You’ve got the two J. Morgan vets… and then the likely cuts in R. J. Harris (who was very good in college), Willie Snead and Lance Lewis. The last guy is Jalen Saunders who will make this team if he beats out Marcus Murphy for the kick returner job. It’s crowded but it also lacks in real star power. This crew seems thin behind the top 2 unless someone really steps up. As concerned as I was with corner last year, receiver is giving off the early vibe in that category this year.
Running backs
The top three here are deep, secure, and obvious. Mark Ingram, C. J. Spiller and Khiry Robinson are a diverse and steady stable of backs. Tim Hightower probably doesn’t make this team but he’s a fun one to watch out for in camp. I like accomplished veterans in the mix at the end of the depth chart. Edwin Baker is a longshot, and the aforementioned Murphy is more in battle with Saunders than he is with these guys for a roster spot.
Fullbacks
The Saints kept two fullbacks last year in Erik Lorig and Austin Johnson. Part of that was due to injury, which led to Lorig’s early season unavailability, but Johnson earned that roster spot. Toben Opurum will have a hard time beat either player out. This position feels really deep, too. Johnson is more versatile and can help on special teams, so it’s possible the Saints retain two again this year.
Tight End
Gone is Jimmy Graham which creates a pretty huge opening. Josh Hill and Benjamin Watson are both locks to make the team and both will play a big part on this team in 2015. But you can’t really just stick with two tight ends can you? Well, the Saints may have the luxury of bringing in Andrus Peat as their 3rd blocking tight end. Otherwise, there’s three relative unknowns that will have a chance to impress in camp. Hill and Watson will be fine – the question is whether Hill can step up and truly be a plus player. In limited reps he’s always maxed out his positive value, but the big question is can a more significant role open up his limitations as a player? This position is a concern, but the Saints should be ok. There’s a good mix of reliable veteran presence and young high ceiling potential.
Tackle
Many of you hate the Peat draft pick, but depth at tackle was an absolute necessity. Now, that exists. Between Terron Armstead, Zach Strief and Andrus Peat, you can now afford an injury at this position. Before, it was a death sentence. Bryce Harris is still a decent prospect and he can develop with less pressure. He doesn’t HAVE to work out. The footing is much more solid here now.
Guard
This is a bit of a question mark. Jahri Evans is the clear starter at right guard, but will it be Tim Lelito or Senio Kelemete on the other side? And whichever wins, will he hold up? I don’t feel great here but I feel ok. These guys are both pretty good and the camp battle will hopefully yield at least one very capable guy. Mike McGlynn is the veteran insurance at this position now, too, and who knows, maybe Sean Hickey turns some heads. There’s a lot of decent competition to feel good about at left guard.
Center
Max Unger needs to work out. When you give up a guy like Jimmy Graham, the return has to be substantial. Expectations are high for him and he needs to prove his worth. Lelito can also slide over in a pinch which is a nice luxury to have thanks to his experience last year.
Defensive End
Hicks, Jordan and Foster will be pushed by a bunch of rookies. Most of those rookies don’t come in with high expectations, either. Depth here is a problem. I’m surprised the Saints didn’t address this position more earnestly this offseason. Based on that, we have to hope Hicks can return to normal. If there’s one guy I’d love to see develop into a rotation guy it’s Tyeler Davison. The Saints need him to be like Tyrunn Walker. If we’re also counting Junior Galette and Kasim Edebali as defensive ends, they are both good players.
Nose Tackle
I like these three guys and in combination I feel pretty good. Depth here is significant. Brodrick Bunkley (if he’s recovered), John Jenkins (if he’s got his weight under control) and Lawrence Virgil (if he can build off impressive games at the end of last year) come with caveats, but they are all capable. The Saints have a good rotation here.
Outside Linebacker
Outstanding competition and new blood here. Anthony Spencer, Hau’oli Kikaha, Ronald Powell and Davis Tull going up against Junior Galette, Kasim Edebali and Parys Haralson. I’m not sure any of these guys will blow the roof of the Superdome, but this is a deep rotation with good competition. Someone productive will emerge from this group.
Inside Linebacker
Ellerbe, Hawthorne and Humber are the vets. That’s not a super impressive group but it’s three vets with experience. We all hope 1st round pick Stephone Anthony will come in and beat them all out. The depth here is also very solid. But the Saints will be better off is Anthony can hit the ground running. If he doesn’t, though, at least there’s guys that can hold it down.
Cornerback
This position desperately needed an upgrade and I believe that’s happened. I don’t know that Delvin Breaux, P. J. Williams, Damian Swann and Kyle Wilson are necessarily better than Corey White and Patrick Robinson – but if anything else it’s new blood. You’ve got 4 new guys that will be battling, a new starter in Brandon Browner, and on top of that you have three guys in Brian Dixon, Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Terrence Frederick that could improve. I don’t even mention Keenan Lewis because he’s the mainstay/backbone. That’s a battle of nine guys that have either already made this team before or come in with decent expectations. The Saints will keep only five or six. It’s going to be hard to emerge from this group. Good on the Saints to really improve this position, get good competition, and have depth. I feel better about corner going into training camp than I maybe ever have with the Saints. And thankfully we can now get past counting on Jean-Baptiste. If he works out, great, but I feel ok about cutting him if there’s six guys on the roster better now. There easily could be.
Safety
Jairus Byrd has to come back healthy and return on the investment. He just has to. It’s going to be the difference between a playoff team and a defense that continues to struggle. By the way, that statement could easily be placed on Kenny Vaccaro too. He was horrendous last year and needs to bounce back to rookie season levels. Rafael Bush and Jamarca Sanford are great depth. Then you’ve got Pierre Warren who showed some ball skills, Vinnie Sunseri who is a good special teamer, and Kenny Phillips who’s probably done but may surprise. The depth is good but here the Saints desperately need the guys they expect to be good to do exactly that.
Special Teams
We talked about Saunders vs. Murphy already. Punter is locked and loaded with Morstead. Long snapper is locked and loaded. But what about kicker? Dustin Hopkins vs. Zach Hocker is not a comfortable situation. It’s just not. I hope I’m proven wrong and one of them turns out to be solid, but neither player has ever attempted an NFL kick. The odds someone else will be the Saints’ opening day kicker is at least 40%. This is not a stable position for the Saints and it really hasn’t been the entire time Sean Payton has been coach.
Going into the season, I would rate my biggest order of concern in terms of positional weakness as:
1. Kicker
2. Wide Receiver
3. Defensive End rotational depth
4. Tight End
5. Left Guard
How do you feel about these positions?
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