I don’t think many of us pictured the Saints carrying Dustin Hopkins and Zach Hocker as their two kickers on the 90 man roster right now, and yet here we are. What’s most surprising about this is that Sean Payton has never not had a veteran battling it out in camp before. Whether it was John Carney, Olindo Mare, Martin Grammatica, John Kasay or Shayne Graham, there has always been a veteran presence at the position. And while Garrett Hartley was the only kicker (with the possible exception of Carney) who gained Payton’s trust, it wasn’t for long. The revolving door of kickers under Sean Payton has largely been a mess. But despite the high volume of players used at the kicker position since 2006, the Saints are still 196 of 244 on field goals under Payton. That’s a conversion rate of 80.3% – you would think it’s much worse than that given the number of changes. That said, since 2006, kickers have been hitting at an average clip of over 83% and since 2006 the worst season average was 2009 when NFL kickers combined to convert on an average of 81.29% of their field goal attempts. When you look at it under that microscope, 80.3% since 2006 is below average. And frankly, when you play half your games in the Superdome that’s just not acceptable. So why settled for letting two complete unknowns battle it out in camp? I have some ideas.
1. Status quo wasn’t working
I can’t hate on Shayne Graham too much, he went 19 of 22 last year. Despite the Saints making just 80.3% of their kicks, Graham brought up that average by hitting 86.4% of his kicks last year. But clearly his leg strength is an issue, as it was with John Carney and John Kasay. The Saints are changing the way they look at things this year and maybe it’s time to mix it up. Having a veteran you can trust is nice at all, but maybe it’s time to hand over the reins to the young promising kickers and give them every chance to win the job. The most successful run the Saints have had with a kicker under Payton was probably Garrett Hartley at his best, and he was a nobody when he took over.
2. More reps to truly evaluate what they have
So the recently signed Zach Hocker and Dustin Hopkins, who was added to the practice squad late last year, are the current players battling it out. Neither has attempted a regular season NFL kick in their career. Having Graham in the mix would take away reps from these two and if you truly want to evaluate what you have, then letting Graham go will allow you to do that. I’m excited to see how these guys do in the preseason games.
3. You can always bring Graham back
The Saints know what they will get with Graham and they could always decide after a couple of weeks of preseason to bring him back if neither youngster is working out. It’s not like teams are beating down the door to sign Graham. It’s a risk worth taking. Maybe he goes elsewhere, but if he doesn’t, I think the Saints feel reasonably confident he’ll stay in shape and be ready if called upon. He hadn’t kicked in quite a while before the Saints signed him last time, so he’s pro enough that time away from the team shouldn’t affect him.
4. They are not auditioning just Hopkins and Hocker – but every other NFL camp kicker
There were a number of decent kickers that became available last year at final roster cuts. In fact, I liked a lot of them better than Graham and I was surprised to see him stick with the Saints. There’s only 32 jobs out there and there’s a pretty good chance that some team’s #2 kicker is better than Hopkins and Hocker. Assuming that the opening day kicker will be Hopkins or Hocker would be very dangerous. This isn’t an either or proposition. The kicker could easily still be Shayne Graham. Or it could be Garrett Hartley (who is available). Or Derek Dimke, if the Jaguars cut him. Or it could any other veteran/young kicker that impresses in preseason but not enough to beat out someone better.
5. Maybe, just maybe, these guys are awesome?
The Saints came away from workouts with Hopkins so impressed that they tied up a practice squad spot at the end of last year for him just to make sure he’d be in camp the following season. They were so impressed with Hocker that they released their kicker that went 19 for 22 last year. That should at least give you hope.
Hopkins kicked at Florida State and got better every single year he was there. He made 19/27 his freshman year (70.4%), 22 of 28 (78.6%) in year two, 22/27 (81.5%) in year three, and 25/30 his final college season (83.3%). That’s in mostly outdoor games, mind you. His last season was 2012 and he’s been trying to land an NFL job ever since. And before you put too much stock into college numbers, Shayne Graham was a 73.4% career college kicker, and snappers/holders in the NFL are infinitely better.
Hocker last kicked in college in 2013 for Arkansas. He’s a career 77.2% kicker, but he bounced back from a disastrous 11/18 in 2012 to convert 13 of 15 attempts in 2013 (86.7%).
Neither guy was lights out in college, but both had good senior seasons which is their most recent body of work. Since they’ve become professionals and battled it out with veterans in various training camps, though, it’s safe to assume they’ve gotten better.
One thing is clear when it comes to the Saints 2015 kicker: expect the unexpected. There’s truly no telling where this goes, but hopefully the path leads to some stability at the position. Kicking in the Superdome is far too much of a kicking benefit for finding the right person to be such a struggle.
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