The 2015 Saints are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, trapped in an enigma, hiding in Rob Ryan’s shadow. Don’t believe me? Conference call Sean Payton, he’ll tell you. Seriously though, if you are saying you know exactly what to expect from the 2015 Saints you sir (or ma’am) are a liar. This team is without a doubt the hardest to gauge team in the Payton/Brees era. At times they looked dominant, at times average, and at times the very definition of mediocrity…and that’s just the defense.
We have no idea what to expect from this group other than the hope that free agent additions (Brownder, Ellerbe), as well as a slew of rookies can help them at least be better than last year’s embarrassment. I personally believe that this is a defense that may struggle early, but will get better as the year goes along (and they get healthier). There is no question that the loss of Keenan Lewis to go along with injuries to Brandon Browner, the still recovering Byrd, and Dannel Ellerbe will make the task of improving even more difficult. However, the Saints do have one thing in their favor, they play six games against teams that field anything even close to a competent offense this year, and ALL of them have suspect offensive lines.
That very well may be the Saints saving grace in the early parts of the season. The defense will likely struggle at times as the rookies adjust to the NFL level, but the quality of opponent they will face should make it possible for them to make just enough plays to be competent. What more have we ever asked of a Saints defense since 2006? Just don’t lose us the dang game, that is all we ask. Sadly in recent years that has been too much to ask. What reason do we have to hope that this year will be different?
Well for starters according to reports Jairus Byrd will be coming back MUCH sooner than expected. The Saints also acquired a great deal of quality defensive talent in this year’s draft, but again it will take time to develop. More than that though what is going to help the defense the most is actually the offense. The Saints are going to have the best offensive line they have had since at least 2011 (probably even 2009), which likely also means that they will have a vastly improved run game. A good running game is known as a quarterbacks best friend, however the unit that is really helped the most is the defense.
When a team is able to run the ball effectively and consistently it keeps the defense both fresh and off the field for as long as possible. It’s very difficult for the Saints defense to give up 30 points when the opponents only have the ball for 20-25 minutes. That is one of the ways they can mitigate the damage done by their defense IF it is as bad as we fear it might be.
The bright side though is that there is a very good chance that the Saints offense is going to have its best year since 2011 (another year where they had an awful defense and it didn’t matter…till it mattered). The very running game I just referred to that should be rejuvenated behind offensive line studs Terron Armstead and new acquisition Max Unger will be a major catalyst for the team. C.J. Spiller will be back by week 2 (according to recent reports) which will help the running and passing games, and the offenses two biggest stars have looked phenomenal. Drew Brees is healthy (no oblique injury this year), ticked off, and focused, and his young partner in crime Brandin Cooks looks like he is going to be trouble for opponents.
That’s the Saints though, what about our opponents? Let’s take a look at the Saints first opponent the Arizona Cardinals and how the two teams stack up position to position.
Quarterback: advantage Saints
Carson Palmer is a more than passable quarterback and more often than not he is going to be on the favorable side of this match up. This is one of the ‘not’ weeks. Pretty good doesn’t stack up with first ballot and Brees has looked as sharp as he EVER has in the little time we have seen him so far. Combine that with the improved line of New Orleans and the porous line of the Cardinals and this is a very easy decision to make.
Offensive line: advantage Saints
I’m honestly not sure the Saints wouldn’t have had the advantage in this match up last year when they had broken down veteran Jonathan Goodwin and the expired carcass of Ben Grubbs manning the center and left guard positions. Both teams have very good left tackles with the Saints having up and comer Terron Armstead and the Cardinals having Jared Veldheer who is very solid in his own right. Those two positions are close enough to me to be a wash. However it all changes from there.
The Saints weakest link is probably Tim Lelito and I would take him over any of the Cardinals interior linemen right now (Mike Iupati might be better, but he should be out). Even half of Jahri Evans is better than Jonathan Cooper in my book, and Evans has actually looked pretty darn good so far this year (although its preseason…so who knows). The Saints now boast All Pro Center Max Unger who is both a tremendous leader and a fantastic blocker in all facets of the game…the Cardinals starter is either A.Q. Shipley or Ted Larsen…both are awful. The advantage is clearly in the Saints favor here.
Tight End: wash.
The Saints are fielding veteran Ben Watson and ‘the All-Pro of offseason’ Josh Hill. The Cardinals starter is likely to be Jermaine Gresham who tried out for the Saints and didn’t make it. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Gresham is worse than what we have, he was coming off an injury so who knows. The bottom line is that while a year ago this would be lopsided in the Saints favor in any but 2 or 3 match ups, they traded Jimmy Graham to improve the team as a whole so this position group won’t have the advantage much this year.
Wide Receiver: advantage Cardinals
This one pains me, but even if Brandin Cooks is as good as I think he is going to be this year he alone doesn’t trump the Cardinals deep unit. Brandon Coleman, Willie Snead, and Marques Colston even if they all are as good as we hope they will be don’t out match the Cardinals in my opinion. Fitzgerald might not be the world beater he once was, but he is still very good with some of the best hands in the game. John Brown is an emerging star who is explosive and he is also going against what is likely to be a soft secondary (I hope I’m wrong on that). The big question mark to me, and arguably a deciding factor in the game, is whether or not young stud Michael Floyd plays. Floyd is recovering from broken fingers, but when healthy he is everything we hoped and dreamed Nick Toon would turn into. He is big, fast, has great hands and body control, and will go up and fight for the ball. Floyd is exacty the kind of dynamic playmaker who could ruin the Saints day, so while I own I’m in the Happy Hour Podcast fantasy league (children’s division)…I really hope he is out this week.
Running Back: advantage Saints
If Chris Johnson was in his prime and running behind the mammoth offensive line he once had in Tennessee I would say this is about even, but he isn’t. I honestly don’t know what he has left, but the combination of the fact the Saints have looked very good against the run and the fact he looks washed up makes me believe the Cardinals won’t run the ball much better than they did last year (ranked 31st overall). The Saints back up running back is Khiry Robinson and if his twitter can be trusted he is likely to play in this game. If he does it’s a wrap, Khiry is better than anything the Cardinals have and to me is a major x-factor for this game.
Defensive Line: advantage Cardinals
The loss of nose tackle Dan Williams is a big one for the Cardinals. He was a big time run stopper and a key part of what was one of the league’s best defenses last year (5th in scoring). The Cardinals still have plenty of talent up front though with Calais Campbell and free agent signing Corey Peters manning the front. Both are dynamic players and Campbell in particular will be a major test for the ‘improved’ Saints offensive line.
The Saints meanwhile field Cam Jordan and a whole lot of hope. They hope that big John Jenkins can live up to his potential, that Akiem Hicks finally discovers consistency in a contract year, that Kevin Williams still has something left in the tank, and most of all they hope that 3 young rookies can provide quality depth. That is a LOT to be hoping for. The Saints defensive line might have the much easier match up, but they also have only one real match up problem on the line.
Corner: advantage Cardinals
The Cardinals have Patrick Peterson, the Saints don’t have Keenan Lewis, I can stop there. They also have a quality veteran in Jerraud Powers to man the other side and a dynamic playmaker (who most Saints fans are very familiar with) in Tyrann Mathieu who plays a safety/corner hybrid role similar to Kenny Vaccaro. I have very high hopes for Delvin Breaux, but if we are being honest if we had him and prime Brandon Browner the Cardinals corners would still be a bit better than ours.
Safety: It depends
If and I mean IF Jairus Byrd plays the advantage is the Saints. I still doubt he plays this week, but until he is ruled out it’s hard to rule on this one way or another. If Kenny plays like he did his rookie year and Rafael Bush is fully healthy the advantage is in the Saints favor, period. However, we don’t know for sure that either of those things will happen, so while I believe the Saints should have the better unit I can’t definitively say it at this point in time.
Linebackers: advantage Cardinals
This is really a matchup of one proven star versus none. The Cardinals have a Line backing corp full of proven players who range from pretty darn good, to very good. The only player on the Saints who is on that level is Dannel Ellerbe and we don’t know if he will play. I firmly believe that Stephone Anthony will be a star in this league, I don’t have the guts to predict he comes out in his very first game and is already there. The Cardinals best linebacker is someone the Saints are very familiar with in former Falcon Sean Witherspoon. If you don’t remember who he is that’s the guy who did the same thing I did last year…talk trash from his couch. But when Weatherspoon does make it onto the field he is a heck of a player and he could be a big difference maker for the Cardinals in this game. The x-factor for New Orleans will be another rookie in Hau’oli Kikaha; Kikaha has the potential to be a dynamic pass rusher and playmaker in this league, and if the Saints are to win this game he will likely need to flash that potential at least a few times throughout the game to make the difference.
Brian’s Pick: After looking at all of it I believe the Saints have the right match ups in their favor and that they will be able to run the ball on the Cardinals enough to protect their defense. I think the porous offensive line of Arizona will cost them the game late and that the Saints will squeak out a victory in a game where Drew Brees sends a very clear message to the rest of the league. I won’t try to predict a final score, but I do believe that if the Saints play their cards right they can come out ahead. I don’t know if that would be the case later in the year when Palmer is fully settled back in and they have Floyd back, but as I expect him to be out I’m predicting a Saints victory.
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