When Rob Ryan recently talked to the New Orleans media, he had the following to say:
“Stats don’t mean anything to us. I know what it looks like. Just keep blaming me. Keep blaming me and that will be great.”
Well, who else can we or should we blame? At some point enough is enough. We discussed this during the Saints Happy Hour Podcast the other night and Dave Cariello relayed some statistics for perspective. I wanted to put those numbers in writing and dig a little deeper.
Currently the Saints are 31st in the NFL in yards given up per game at 414.8. Only the New York Giants are worse at 422.8. The Saints are also 31st in points yielded per game at 29.8. Only the Detroit Lions are worse at 30.6. It’s sad when you consider that the Saints are now #1 in the NFL in offense. They’re also 6th in points scored per game at 26.8. You know what that adds up to? 4-5. Once again, the Saints are wasting elite years with Drew Brees by not giving him the luxury of a capable supporting cast. Sean Fox of espn977.com asked me if I could imagine Brees being paired with the Carolina defense and my response was simple: the team would be as good as the New England Patriots.
So of course bad drafting and even worse free agency pickups are mostly to blame. Anthony Spencer, Brandon Browner, Champ Bailey, Jairus Byrd, Marcus Ball, Victor Butler, Kenyon Coleman, David Hawthorne, Curtis Lofton, Chris Chamberlain… all recent names that come to mind. And most of that isn’t on Ryan. You can blame Sean Payton, Mickey Loomis or the scouting staff, but the team’s ability to land contributing talent has been abysmal. There’s at least promise with this draft class, and Keenan Lewis and Delvin Breaux have been shining lights in this abyss of darkness.
But let’s put talent aside for a second. That’s a different post and a different conversation. For now let’s evaluate what Ryan has done with what he has – which is admittedly not much.
YEAR ONE: Rob Ryan comes in and magically turns the worst defense in NFL history into the 4th best defense in the NFL. How did he do that? I’m honestly not sure. But he got the most out of guys like Vaccaro, Hicks and Jordan. Keenan Lewis too.
YEAR TWO: The Saints defense collapses back to horrific play and the team clearly needs an upgrade and infusion of youth. The Saints finish 31st in the NFL in defense (384.0 yards given up per game), only ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, and 28th in points yielded (at 26.5 points per game).
YEAR THREE: Still 31st, but now the stats are 414.8 yards given up per game and 29.8 points per game. Those two marks would have landed the Saints dead last last year by a long shot. The only things holding the Saints back from being the worst in both categories are their own offense pouring a million yards on the Giants and the Lions hemorrhaging points at a historical rate. What’s weird is that while Akiem Hicks has gotten even worse, John Jenkins has improved, rookie Kikaha, Anthony and Swann look promising, and Jordan and Vaccaro look back to their 2013 selves. Despite all of that, the Saints are still awful.
Rob Ryan’s defense is getting worse. Keep in mind – yards yielded per game doesn’t include penalties. The Saints had the 13th most in penalties and this year they are up to 7th. Most of those penalties, as you can guess, are on the defensive side of the ball. Tom Brady is the consensus 2015 MVP so far by most people with half a brain and his QB rating so far is ~113. Quarterbacks that play the Saints have averaged a rating one point lower. That tells you that whoever is quarterbacking against the Saints, on average, be it Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brandon Weeden or an Andrew Luck buried in the most embarrassing stretch of his career, is performing like they are Tom Brady. Let that sink in for a second. From an efficiency perspective, on average, any QB playing the Saints is putting up MVP numbers. The scariest part about all of this? Penalty yards don’t boost QB rating. QB rating is only based on actual passes that are attempted. So these MVP performances that are coming against the Saints defense are also benefiting separately from the 7th most penalties in the league. When you look at it that way, only a Hall of Fame elite quarterback could stand in the way of a team like this being winless.
How does this current defense compared to Steve Spagnuolo’s worst defense in NFL history, you might ask? Well, that unit gave up 440.1 yards per game (so ~25 yards more per game) and 28.4 points per game (~1.5 points less). So it’s certainly comparable and by some standards it’s worse. Sidenote, Spagnuolo is currently the defensive co-ordinator of the Giants who are the only team worse than the Saints on defense. Because of course. It’s perfect. Bad coaching is alive and well.
At this point, I do think it’s time to part ways with Ryan. Immediately. The defense has continually gotten worse and despite significant turnover in the roster, the performance on the field is extremely similar this year to both 2012 and 2014. The Saints still have what I’ll generously describe as a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Rob Ryan is in the final year of his deal and based on how the last two years have gone, there is zero chance he would return under almost any scenario on planet earth. So you hired Dennis Allen to help Ryan right this ship… and based on the job he’s done, I’m not sure I want him around next year either. So at this point, I’d almost prefer Allen be in a sink or swim situation than Ryan. Ryan is on borrowed time anyway with his departure a foregone conclusion. Allen still has a chance to be the defensive coordinator next season. Why not give him a chance to run the ship and showcase whether he can at least improve this unit enough to get out of the way of another historical Drew Brees season performance?
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