While getting rid of Rob Ryan was a necessary move it doesn’t mask what the 2015 Saints are up against. At 4-6, they’ll probably have to run the table to make the playoffs as a wild card. One more loss likely does in their season for good. And of course it’s academic at this point, we know a loss is coming. We know a lot more than one loss is coming, in fact. So save a miracle of the most unlikely occurrences, what do we realistically have left to hope for?
I refuse to immediately jump to the “root for a draft pick” train. That’s not a fun way to experience the remaining 6 games of the season when you’re rooting for your team to lose. It also promises nothing. I’d much prefer a solid scouting staff and a GM making good decisions (something we haven’t seen as of late) than picking 6th instead of 13th, or whatever. Identifying need and fit and then drafting appropriately trumps getting a more talented player. Always. Period. And after the first round, every draft pick will involve a player with a flawed evaluation in some way. So the value of the 37th pick vs. the 43rd, or 157th vs. 171st is pretty marginal. It’s more about picking the right guy by doing the appropriate homework.
I was asked on both the Saints Happy Hour Podcast and ESPN977.com this week what we can root for at this point besides a playoff berth. I’ve had a chance to answer that question on the spot and think about it some and I’ve come up with three goals for the 2015 season that involve neither the 2016 draft or the Saints losing out. Framing your expectations and goals this way as a fan may make watching the 2015 season more palatable. Here we go:
1. Watching Dennis Allen: improvement on defense. Is he a good choice for defensive coordinator in 2016?
When Dennis Allen was hired we all knew that meant Rob Ryan’s stay was temporary. Ryan’s contract expired at the end of 2015 anyway and the only way he was coming back was if he could duplicate the success he had in 2013. He didn’t and now he’s gone. The timing to see him off is actually pretty good because Allen has a tremendous opportunity. Think about it. The Saints will face a horrendous Texans offense coming back from the bye week, with a number of guys potentially returning from injury (hopefully Ellerbe, Kikaha, Swann and maybe Lewis?). It’s not that I expect the Saints to hold them to 10 points or anything, but if I’m replacing a guy with a horrendous defense, regaining health, having some time to plan and facing a really poor opponent is the way you want to start. The big question for me is whether Dennis Allen should be the defensive coordinator for the Saints in 2016. And I’d much rather decide the answer to that is yes based on the unit’s improvement over the next 6 games than deciding it in the offseason after Ryan’s contract expires naturally. I consider this an audition. And with an ideal scenario to start that 6 game stretch, hopefully it will instill some confidence that carries into the following weeks. I’m not expecting a top 15 defense over this 6 week period but I am expecting improvement. If the unit continues to play at the same level they have currently then clearly it’s time to change a lot, possibly including Allen.
Sidenote: It would be cool to see Jairus Byrd get his first interception at some point over these next six games, as well as the Saints’ first defensive touchdown since 2012. Even better if they can both happen on the same play. Those are two streaks I’m rooting to see end before the end of 2015.
2. Feeling good about the 2015 class going into 2016.
If you asked me how I feel about the 2015 draft class right now I’d say the Saints fared ok. Better than previous years, to be sure, but I’m hoping these next six weeks will paint a rosier picture on the future. Andrus Peat is a big question mark and I’d really like to see him play more. He’s back from injury and the bye week should help him get right. We don’t know how the Saints fared with that pick yet so seeing him play a couple games well (maybe even as a starter at right tackle?) would go a long way. Stephone Anthony seems like the real deal but he had his worst game of the season against the Redskins so I’d like to see him improve. Hau’oli Kikaha has played well and has a promising future, but I’d like to see him return from his ankle injury after the bye and show us improvement. Damian Swann is in the same boat: looks good, need to see more, hopefully he can get healthy.
The rest: Davis Tull and P. J. Williams are on IR and won’t play this season, but I still have hope for them. Garrett Grayson is a long term project so I’m not as worried about seeing him play immediately. Grayson’s progress next training camp and preseason will be more telling. Tyeler Davison and Marcus Murphy look like fringe roster guys and players competing for a role, hopefully they can continue to show flashes (which they have).
3. Beat the Atlanta Falcons.
When it comes to the final result of a game – I have one focus: a win over the Atlanta Falcons. I used to always say if the Saints have to go 2-14, give me 2 wins over the Falcons and I’ll be ok. The Falcons lead the all time series 49-44 (48-44 if you exclude postseason). The Saints could close the gap to 49-45 with a win. One of the things I really want to see in my lifetime is the Saints taking over the historical edge head to head against the Falcons. That’s something I’ve been keeping a closer eye on since the Saints made a big dent into the deficit under Sean Payton. And now that it’s closer to within reach, it feels like a possibility. That sweep last year by the Falcons really hurt and returning the favor would be huge. Before the sweep last year the series was 47-44 (46-44 excluding postseason) which felt really attainable. A sweep would also potentially set up the Saints to tie the series by 2017. I will happily accept a 1-5 run the rest of the way, including a defense that continues to look as bad as they’ve looked, if it means a win over the Falcons in Atlanta that results in a series sweep. If that win doubles as a death blow to the Falcons’ postseason hopes, even better.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
