Why this 2015 Saints defense might be worse than the 2012 Spagnuolo defense

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One thing that hasn’t been talked about much this week with Rob Ryan getting fired is just how bad the defense currently is. In case you missed it, the Redskins game was enough to put the Saints dead last in defense for both yards AND points. The Saints are giving up 424.3 yards per game (Giants at 420.9) and 31.5 points per game (Lions at 29). Steve Spagnuolo’s 2012 “worst defense in NFL history” gave up 440.1 yards per game but “just” 28.4 points per game.

The Saints are giving up a passer rating of 116.6 over 10 games. The combination of Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Brandon Weeden and others against the Saints have put up better numbers than MVP favorite Tom Brady (111.1 rating). In fact, only 4 quarterbacks in NFL history have posted a rating better than that. The record is Aaron Rodgers in 2011 at 122.5. Peyton Manning, Nick Foles and Brady have each had higher than the number the Saints are yielding once. No one else in the history of the NFL, including Drew Brees, has. Steve Spagnuolo’s “worst defense in NFL history” gave up 93.8 ratings to opposing quarterbacks, which was 5th worst that year. In fact, a quick look through history suggests 116.6 opposing QB rating would break an NFL record. The 2008 0-16 Lions gave up 110.9 and that was the highest I could find.

In case you forgot, those numbers don’t even include penalties which don’t factor into pass ratings. The Saints are also the 10th most penalized team with the overwhelming majority of those flags coming in their secondary. Brandon Browner leads the NFL with 16 penalties all by himself. Delvin Breaux is tied for third among all cornerbacks with 9. The 2012 Saints were 1 spot better, ranked the 11th most penalized team.

The Saints are giving up 4.9 yards per carry on the ground. Only the Redskins are worse at 5.0 in large part thanks to Mark Ingram’s career long 70 yard run. The “worst defense in NFL history” was dead last in the NFL that year at 5.2. Only just over ~20 teams in NFL history have allowed more than 5.0 yards per carry and the Saints are quickly approaching that feat. In a 16 game season, the 2013 Bears are the worst ever at 5.35 allowed.

That all adds up to this version of the Saints defense, through 10 games, being worse than “the worst defense in NFL history” in 3 out of 5 major categories. QB rating, penalties, and points allowed. The NFL measures defensive ranking by yards allowed, and Spags’ defense in 2012 does allow more than this year’s version of a “defense”. Spags’ D also allowed more yards per carry. Still, you could certainly make the argument through 10 games that this defense is worse than the 2012 unit.

Based on that, firing Rob Ryan was the only decision. I’m sorry, but the injuries, bad drafts and lack of talent aren’t going to fly with me here. These are still NFL players. I don’t think any coach could turn this current crop of talent into a top 15 defense but I have to believe there are guys out there that would devise a scheme to prevent them from being bad at historical levels. Watching the team in person in Washington, there were clear talent issues and then there were effort and technique issues. The latter is mostly on coaching.

It will be very interesting to see what Dennis Allen can do with these guys, if anything, over the next 6 games.

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