Forget week 16 vs. the Jaguars. It’s largely meaningless. I’m not willing to completely write off week 17 at Atlanta because of the potential for a season sweep… but you can kind of forget that too. The question that should be on everyone’s mind is what the future holds for Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Will only one be back with the Saints in 2016 – and if so, which? Will both? Is it conceivable that neither would be part of the 2016 New Orleans Saints? Scary and wild to think that we may be a couple months away from parting ways from both. But that’s the reality starring us in the face. There are a lot of unknowns facing this upcoming offseason, particularly coming off two losing seasons and most recently their worst year since 2005. You hear a lot of opinions circulating. Drew is about to be 37, he’s starting to get injured, he’s lost arm strength, THIS is our last chance to get a return. Sean has lost his fire, he doesn’t have the play calling magic anymore, he should hand off the play calling to Pete Carmichael. The list goes on and on. Here’s how I evaluate things as we stand:
SEAN PAYTON
The cards are completely in the hands of the Saints here. Absolute dumbest move they could make? Fire him. Based on the constant reports circulating there is clearly a significant market out there for him. And when it’s more than one team interested, that’s when the cost to land him drives up. The Saints have him under contract through 2017. So if he “wants” to leave, the Saints have every right to say “sorry, you’re staying” and he can either remain the highest paid coach in the NFL or he can retire. I don’t see the latter happening at the expense of the former. If the Saints want to part ways from him? That’s where it gets dicey. There are interested parties out there. We know that at least the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts are willing to shell out something to land him. That’s an evaluation the Saints will have to make.
The question becomes: what is enough to stomach Sean Payton leaving? Is losing one of the best offensive minds in the NFL worth two first round picks? Less? I’ll admit I’m tempted but shy to voice an opinion either way. The grass is always greener on the other side – but the reality is there’s probably a 2% chance the Saints will land a head coach as good to replace him. And if that’s true, I’d almost prefer the inferior roster. That’s the con. The pro is clearly a couple 1st round picks can change the fortune of a franchise if they draft correctly. Something the Saints haven’t been doing lately.
So when we ask ourselves what he’s worth – the question is really what is he worth to start over and enter the world of the unknown? To me, it’s 4 draft picks or nothing. Two 1sts and two 2nds. I’m not seriously considering much less than that. And before you say he’s lost his edge, the Saints are the #3 offense in the NFL currently. I can already hear some of you saying “yards don’t mean anything”. Stop it. If this defense was as good as pretty much ANYTHING ELSE IN THE LEAGUE – the team is still in the playoff discussion. The thing is, Payton has a history of horrible defenses so I do blame him for those areas being so bad. But hey, a Super Bowl and and NFC Championship Game appearance can make me live with his history.
Point being? The Saints can’t let him walk unless it’s for a game changing ransom. Why would they? You can’t replace him with something better. Again, I give it a 2% chance.
DREW BREES
He enters the final year of his deal due $30 million in cap space. Ouch. This team is already in shambles cap wise and they can’t stomach that number. Clearly the combination of bad investments, bad draft picks and Brees’s cap figure has decimated this team. The only way to fix it and field a competitive roster is to fix all three departments. There is no way the Saints can allow Brees to play under his current deal in 2016. That leaves 3 choices.
1. Cut him
The Saints would save $20 million and lose $10 million in dead money by releasing Brees. Not ideal, but hey, $20 million in space is a start to begin a rebuild.
2. Trade him
The ramifications are the same, but you get a return. 37 and recent injury history or not, the reality is there are plenty of teams that want to win NOW and believe they could with an elite quarterback. We saw what Peyton Manning did in Denver after back surgery late in his career. Someone will give up a mortgage on their future for an elite quarterback. Make no mistake, Brees is playing better ball than he was in 2014.
3. Extend him
To me, this is by far the most likely of all scenarios. I think the Saints will accomplish the objective of reducing his cap number, giving themselves more flexibility, all while keeping a highly productive quarterback that they wouldn’t be able to duplicate anywhere else.
How Garrett Grayson fares in these last two games, if he even plays, has a little to do with this decision. This scenario is extremely unlikely for a number of reasons – but picture Brees being shelved for the last 2 games and Grayson leap frogging Matt Flynn, followed by Grayson torching teams in his last 2 weeks which result in 2 wins? Yeah I know, that’s crazy. But if it happens, I could see the Saints trading Brees. Otherwise, I believe they can’t afford to. Payton wants to win now. He wants to rebuild, but not at the expense of giving himself a chance to win now. I believe Loomis feels the same way as long as Brees is on the roster.
S0 Brees will likely get a 2 year extension, or maybe one. It will make his cap number in 2016 infinitely more palatable and allow the Saints to give the offseason process another shot.
We don’t know what will happen with either but the Saints need to be very careful about the scenarios they consider when parting with either New Orleans icon. Quite simply, the Jimmy Graham ransom of Max Unger and Stephone Anthony, while nice, wouldn’t be nearly enough. Put that way, the Saints can’t let either walk unless it’s an offer too big to refuse.
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