On Wednesday, Sean Payton revealed to a couple of reporters down in Boca that he had a brand new, five year deal hanging out in his briefcase, just waiting for him to put pen to paper. It sent a mild ripple through the Saints fanbase, but it also got Marijn and myself talking … is this the first of several dominoes about to fall, or merely some good news on the coaching front? It kind of occurred to both of us that the team – and it’s fanbase – well, we’re all waiting on you, Drew.
The fact of the matter is, Drew Brees next contract (or lack of one) will tell us so much about the future of this team. The cap, the players we draft, the players we’re able to sign – it’s all intrinsically tied to what happens next with Drew.
I’ll let Marijn weigh in first this time …
Marijn Pessers (@Monedula_)
This ripple must have passed me haha. I did not hear it till you told me. But it seems the Saints are a team of promises. They have promised a lot of contracts but are still yet to sign a couple of guys. Laurinitis, Robinson.. Robertson… Whatever this Browns LB his name is. On a side-note it seems they are only signing ILB/Sam LBs while we need a Weak OLB most of all when Ellerbe goes down again.
I think the Saints make good on their promises and these guys want to be a Saint too. I believe there was a gaping hole at C in 2013 and the Saints did nothing, but as soon as free agency was over they signed Goodwin back after he had visited them 2 months prior. I think there was a mutual understanding there. They might be doing the same with these 2 guys since they lost quite a few FAs they might get a compensatory draft pick next year.
So right now (Wednesday, things might have changed already) the Saints have this hanging in the air: Laurinaitis, Robertson, Payton (who all have agreed in word), Hill and Lelito tendered (of which Hill is most likely gone) and they want to bring back Hightower, and I am sure Williams would be welcome at a discount. It seems like all of these are waiting on Brees to redo his deal.
Brian Bauer (@SaintBrian9)
Like I said, this Payton contract seems to be the first domino, but in reality, it’s Brees. I love having Payton back and secure, no question, but Payton’s contract doesn’t effect our cap space. And that’s where a new contract for Brees’ will tell you so much about the next couple of years. Consider: if it’s heavy up front this year (which really isn’t a bad idea when you think about it) – that would be a clear sign that the Saints want to pay as much up front as possible, acknowledging in a way that this year is another transition season, and giving them a ton more flexibility in the years to come (including moving on, if that’s what it came to). I’m gonna stay with this a little longer here too. You’re currently on the books for a 30M cap hit this year. Why not clear enough space to sign those LBers you mentioned but keep Brees 2016 figure nearly as high – say 27M or so. You’re not going shopping at this point, this year’s free agency has come and gone. Take the hit, give yourself the room, and don’t kick the can down the road for once.
MP
I see them kicking the can a bit. I agree you want to use this years cap fully. They will want to front load as much as possible creating some cap. Not so much money next year. The thing is, what happens after. Brees will want a 5 year deal, Saints would like to make it a 3 year deal and friendly to cut him after the 2nd year if he does a Manning type performance in 2017. In the end I think they will get to a 5 year deal with like 0 guaranteed money in the last 2 years. As soon as that is done the rest will be done. Also Payton will want to know Brees is under contract. If he is not he will not sign the deal.
So I am going to play devils advocate here. I know it is kind of ridiculous; but I am asking you to keep an open mind. Drew does not want to play and they threaten to put him on the Trade block. Relationships sour quickly and Brees actually gets traded. What will happen to Payton you think?
BB
Well, for starters, Ed Werder is reporting that Payton has in fact signed the deal. So devil’s advocate, sorry hahaha but I’m not going to play. If there’s no new contract for Brees to be had, he simply plays out the rest of his deal through next season and then seeks employment elsewhere. The only thing that would move up that timeline is if the Saints decide they don’t like that scenario and cut him after this season. The 30M is already on their books for this year, so cutting him now wouldn’t make any sense (that number also prevents your scenario from ever happening. No one is acquiring a 30M cap hit with only a year left). So if you’re asking me what happens 20 or so months from now if that unlikely scenario occurs? I would say we’re back in the “is someone trading for Sean Payton” scenario we went through this year all over again. Would be very interested, by the way, in knowing whether he has any contract language allowing him to walk, especially under the parameters we just discussed. He seemed boxed in by his deal a couple of months back, I have to wonder if he gave himself an eject button this time around.
MP
Well see while we are writing this our post is already outdated. Hurrah for the off season. Nothing to write about and when you finally find something… Ah well. Lets hope some of our thoughts are still valid.
Well I find myself today to be a complete noob. I had to google if the cap had already gone up (it has) and I did not know the Saints only way to get money is to restructure contracts other then cutting some people (not Brees). It is said they need $5m to sign rookies. So even if they wanted to, they could not trade up right now in the draft because of the cap not allowing them to sign them (remember they can sign anyone making less then the #51 payed guy on the team, so that excludes high draft picks). I was also wrong about Robertson being ILB. I just saw a tweet saying he is a weak side LB… My info on him being ILB was wrong then. Thanks for nothing nfl.com.
Back to speculation, in which I usually excel without much more basis then a gut feeling, which, I dare to add, is pretty accurate sometimes. I am sure Payton has an opt out clause. There always is. Especially with the whole Benson Trust thing going on. With Payton now signing it is just a tedious boring wait till Brees agrees. Altough when Hill’s deal with the Bears becomes official on Sunday, because the Saints do not match (can they even!?), there is $1.7m cap space for signing the LBs. We need an other TE for depth though. There is no way the Saints will match the Bears deal. I thought the tender was too high for his value anyway!
BB
Hill is gone, and frankly, should be fairly easy to replace with a TE project near the middle to end of the draft. I don’t think there’s a big loss there and frankly I think the only reason he even got tendered was in case their pursuit of Fleener went awry. He was a huge disappointment last year despite getting ample chances, and had a couple of notable drops that I think basically ended his days in the Big Easy. Anyway, this has been fun as usual Marijn. Same time next week?
MP
Haha like we have a time! Hope we get some news to write about.
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