Once again, Saints GM Mickey Loomis is drawing praise … and criticism for his seemingly brilliant/short-sighted ability to fit in free agents when it seems the Saints don’t have two dimes to rub together. Shorty after grabbing a couple of nice depth additions in free agency, Loomis then miraculously added Nick Fairley to the crew, even though it appeared the cash strapped Saints couldn’t afford it. We later learned it was a little more of the #LoomisMath we’ve all come to know and love. This week, we’re gonna take a mildly different approach to Blog Cast … Brian will argue that Loomis is Dr. Jekyll – an intelligent guy who finds a way to make the pieces fit, who always has the best of intentions; and Marijn will argue that he’s exactly the opposite – the Dr. Hyde who’s to blame for the cap hell the Saints find themselves in, that will keep haunting them for years down the road. Take it away Marijn.
Marijn Pessers (@Monedula_)
[Editorial note; I do not think I as so much went Hyde here. It is more like I went Kevin Held here….]
So #loomismath has been trending on twitter. Few understand Loomismath, but observing this guy and understanding how this works the Saints will be royally screwed until they get a new cheap QB which will free up money to get some decent players eventually. All his moves are short sighted. “Kicking the can” and seeing what happens next year as long as you get it to work this year. Let us recap the past few years. The Saints have always back-loaded all of their contracts and love to extend contracts. Not normal back-loading like you expect but Fleener style. Give him virtually nothing this year but guarantee him a gazillion next year, the year after that and possibly the year after that. If you want to keep the guy, mr. Re-Do (as you might call Loomis too) extends the contract. That is all nice and well. But what do you get when you sign bust after bust after bust? Exactly. 2016! And still they are able to sign guys. Sure. Except for a Guard. We lose pro-bowler Evans and we will most likely replace him with a rookie. A rookie! Well Drew it was nice knowing you buddy. What would you like it to say on your tomb stone?
Brian Bauer (@SaintBrian9)
Well, you’re mixing yourself up here. Evans was a cap casualty, but one that needed to happen. World class lineman like him get paid regardless of whose team they’re lining up for, and at some point, salary out weighs performance. I heard a lot of people grumbling last year when they shipped Grubbs off for similar reasons, and it became pretty clear the Saints made the right move (he’s a free agent). That said, I’m going to take the opposite stance here. We’ve discussed at length how much we have not enjoyed this offseason, from the Fleener move on to the lack of any other move … then, a funny thing happened. Loomis started signing guys. The Saints were down to the last $2 in their checking account, and suddenly we gained Lauranitis, Stupar and Robinson. How? They restructured Morstead, Ingram and Jordan. Good! These weren’t costly like restructuring Brees was last year (added 10M to this year’s hit if you recall – for what, I have no idea). These are incremental moves. It’s a fascinating process to behold, and just another example of how Loomis can get MORE blood from a stone.
MP
I will get to the Brees situation soon too, but his restructure last year is an other reason why Loomis sucks. It gave us cap flexability that we did not use! Let’s just face the situation. In the last few days and weeks they have been re-doing EVERY contract that could get them a bit of money. The guys like you said; Ingram, Morstead, Jordan. Given, there has been no extending of the Spiller and Byrd contracts. But only an idiot would extend those. If they did not have some sort of promise those guys would have gone the Browner way and been out of here as soon as their dead money could be tagged on to the next year. Oh yes. Next year. Next year. Hallelujah! Next year. Next year is gonna be a disaster as well because of #loomismath. Re-doing all those contracts just does one thing. Pile more money on to the next year. AND the next, AND the next. Come February I wonder if the Saints are even in a better shape then this year with all the extensions they have been doing.
BB
Actually, from everything I’ve read, next year is looking far better than this. What’s fascinating to me is I think Loomis is waiting on the Brees restructure because he’s fine with getting a huge chunk of it out of the way this season. There’s nothing worth breaking the bank over walking around on the free agent market currently, so absorb that hit if you can better spread Brees out down the road. I think the thing you’re missing here – that lots of people are missing – is that the NFL salary cap is fluid. People treat it like it’s their personal bank accounts. I find that laughable. If my bank account worked like the nfl salary cap, I’d be writing checks and borrowing against my next check week after week, and the bank would be just fine with it. Basically, yes, Loomis kicks the can down the road. But the road has NO END. It’s one thing if New Orleans has until, say 2018, to get their finances in order and be at a zero balance. But there’s no end to this – no deadline, no day of reckoning (in fact, the acceptable balance goes UP every year). They can continue kicking the can down the road basically as long as they want. 2017 looking terrible? Make a few restructures, now 2017 is fine, and 2018 is terrible. Rinse, lather, repeat.
MP
At this point there is nobody left to extend or re-do, only the guys that you really do not want to. They have roughly $3m in cap space and that is not enough to sign even all the rookies. They are short $2m. Brees knows all this. He also knows the Saints can not afford to franchise tag him next year. Yes. Because of #loomismath. So that means he will squeeze them for everything they have got. Great. Thanks Loomis. Really shit the bed on that one. If the Brees deal does not get done, the only way to free enough money for the Saints is to, yes you guessed it correctly, re-do an other contract. Maybe Spiller. So you add even more dead money when you cut him after 2016 because now his leg had to be amputated and donated to science!
BB
This is where I’ll agree with you, because the biggest mistake Loomis has made in the last decade WASN’T Browner, or Spiller or even Jason David. It was messing around with Brees contract until they had no choice but to franchise him. He didn’t even play under the tag that season (they signed him during the offseason, but used the tag to keep the negotiations exclusive) but for NFL purposes, it counts. But this is where I’ll disagree with you: It’s that move four years ago that caused this, not salary cap mismanagement. NO TEAM, not a single one, would bring Brees back at next year’s cap price on a third tag. I don’t care if it’s the Raiders and they have 75M in space. That tag price next year is astronomical, and any team would be in the same spot, where you cut and hope to bring back.
MP
Then there is one more thing that really sucks if you look at how the Saints to their business. Take the Patriots. They got their 1st round pick Goodelled away from them and they have still 11, count them, ELEVEN!, picks in the 2016 draft. They got 4 compensatory picks. As a comparison, the Saints have earned 1, count it, ONE compensatory pick under Payloo. (I am not counting Colston who was compensatory because of what happened in 2005 when Payton was not there.) The way they set this up the contracts is for every guy to be cut before the last year. Nearly nobody serves out his contract. Even Nick Fairley who got signed to a “1-year deal” is actually under contract on a 3-year deal, which they can terminate after 1 year without any owed money for years 2 and 3 if they wish. So even if we don’t need him anymore, he will not count towards free agents lost because we cut him! The Saints usually sign more free agents including 1 big name guy every off-season and virtually nobody completes their contract with the Saints. So… Yeah. Again: Thanks Loomis!
BB
Compensatory picks are completely overrated. I would love to see a stat as to how many guys ever taken with a compensatory pick are even in the league at this point. In fact, I’d suggest that the Saints may only NOW start caring about those picks, since as of this year, they can be dealt (was illegal before this year). But right now, would I rather gamble on a year (or more) with Fairley, who upon acquisition moved to the TOP of our current depth chart at the position (thanks Andrew) vs some kid who probably won’t be in this league in two years? Yes. Every. Single. Time. To me, Loomis failure as a GM has everything to do with misses in the draft vs misses in free agency. Yeah, they’re costly, it stinks when a guy like Byrd doesn’t pan out. But it was an admirable attempt, and we all loved that move when it happened. The draft meanwhile, we have entire classes that are long gone, and I’m not even talking all that long ago. Two years ago, almost their entire draft class was gone either via injury or cuts before the corresponding season ever started. That’s far more damaging (and to your point about compensatory picks, who cares how many picks they have if Loomis is gonna miss over and over again). The best Saints seasons have come on the backs of their best drafts, peppered with smart signings in free agency like Scott Fujita and Darren Sharper (rape not withstanding). The drafts they’ve missed on, yeah, we’re all too familiar with those.
In short, all hail #LoomisMath … and all fail #LoomisDraft.
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