According to numerous reports Saints second year player and presumptive ‘Jack’ defensive end Hau’oli Kikaha has torn his ACL (for the third time in his young career). This is a devastating blow to the Saints, not in production, but in potential. Kikaha burst onto the Scene last year as a high energy player with a true nose for the football and a knack for punching out the football from opponent’s hands. Kikaha showed flashes of being able to become a legitimate pass rushing threat, and while he was often a disaster in coverage he showed that he belonged as an ‘attack’ player going up the field. Kikaha was the one guy that there was a LEGITIMATE belief was ready to make a major step up in his second year and become a noteworthy pass rusher. My use of the word legitimate there is due to the fact he showed it consistently, and even when he seemed to lose a step after his ankle injury Kikaha still showed flashes of being a worthwhile pass rusher.
His loss still falls in the category of potential because to this point all he’s proven is that he can show flashes. While there was talk (from myself included) about him possibly getting 8 sacks as a rookie, he only got half of that. With Kikaha now out I know that some members of Saints Twitter have already decided that the best option before the team is to go out and get the best washed up has been they can find, in this case it is Dwight Freeney. Now I have NOTHING but respect for him and his career accomplishments, but I am hoping that the Saints have learned enough from the pointless signing of Champ Bailey. The fact is that even IF Freeney brings some level of production to the team, signing an ancient defensive end (by NFL standards) is much more likely to hurt than to help. Freeney has an incredibly low floor simply because of the reality that father time is undefeated, but that isn’t why I’m so against bringing him or any other old vet in…its the difference in upside.
The Saints certainly lost their most likely starter opposite Cam Jordan when Kikaha suffered that horrible injury, but that doesn’t mean they necessarily lost their best option. When I say it’s time for the Saints to roll the dice what I mean is that with Kikaha out they need to gamble on their own players. Half of finding ‘gems’ hidden on your roster is opportunity, players like Freeney who are so far beyond their prime aren’t gems, and even if they are productive it’s more like fools gold. The Saints have two, yes TWO players currently on the roster who have the ABILITY to become a double digit sack type player, but the question is whether or not they will. Let’s take a quick look at both of them and why I would rather gamble on what we already have, then relying on something that will never be.
Davis Tull:
The former Southern Conference player of the year (3 times) for the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga has an absolutely freakish first step and is a phenomenal athlete. Tull has a high motor and is actually a very similar player to Kikaha as far as potential is concerned. Kikaha has a bit better technique and might be a little bit stronger, but Tull is a better athlete and seems to have a great deal more initial explosiveness. It’s less about comparing the players side by side though as Kikaha has actual NFL snaps and Tull doesn’t. However, the physical attributes are there for him to emerge as a dynamic pass rusher for the Saints.
Even in his limited snaps in the preseason last year it was readily apparent that Tull is a athletically a cut above most players and if what you are measuring is upside he should be given every opportunity to try and take over the now wide open ‘jack’ pass rusher position. Tull has the burst, balance, and ability to turn speed into power that could make him a major problem for opposing offenses. But if he is so athletically gifted why then was he a low round pick and so deep on the draft chart?
Part of that is injuries, an injured shoulder two years in a row has significantly dampened his once bright and rising star. The reality with Tull is that even though he has the measurables to be a very good pass rusher he lacks the most important attribute a professional athlete can have, which is durability. Tull has to prove that he can do more than flash ability and blow up the athletic tests, but to prove he can actually produce on the professional level. That is why this is a gamble. Tull might have the potential to become a very good player for the Saints, and he DOES have talent, but until and unless he can prove he can make something of that talent he is nothing more than a ‘what if’. The gamble the Saints must make is to bet on that if, instead of panicking and going to a definitely not. The ONLY way they will ever find out if Tull can live up to his potential is to let him try.
Obum Gwacham:
Those of you who know who he is and know me as a writer are probably inclined to brush off my confidence in him as a player to where he went to school. After all Gwacham was once a wide receiver at Oregon State University, the same as Brandin Cooks, Keenan Lewis, and myself. That isn’t what I like about him though, the appeal of Obum Gwacham to the New Orleans Saints is 100% due to his ceiling. Gwacham started out as a WR, however he transitioned over to the defensive side of the ball as a pass rusher his final year of college and was eventually taken in the 6th round by the Seattle Seahawks.
What makes Gwacham so appealing is his phsyical tools. He changed positions just a couple of years ago and has been steadily working on changing his body from that of a big WR to a DE, and this year he may have finally completed that process. As was reported by Joel Erickson of The Advocate yesterday Gwacham has added significant weight to his frame and now is working on adding the final element he will need to become a dynamic pass rusher at the NFL level. Gwacham came into the league with elite level explosion and quickness for a man his size (6’5″, 245 pounds) and he showed flashes last year where his sheer physical gifts dominated his competition. However, his lack of functional strength for the position as well as his truly raw game (he has less positional experience than even Onyemata) combined to keep him off the field except as a very situational pass rusher.
But that all might be changing as Gwacham has added about 15 pounds of muscle, and if the added weight doesn’t slow him down he now becomes a scary prospect for the team. With the balance of a receiver, and his natural explosiveness Gwacham has the measurables of a first round pass rusher, what he lacks is the film of one. Gwacham is raw to the position, and while he is known to be an incredibly down to earth and hard working young man, the fact is that he has a lot of catching up to do.
In my opinion it is POSSIBLE, and I do stress that word here, that in a very unfortunate way the injury to Kikaha could be the best thing that happens to the Saints. That is NOT because he isn’t a good player or that they are better off without him, but what I mean by that is the sudden opportunity opened up in front of Gwacham has a chance to help spur him to become the player he can be. Gwacham has ideal size, athleticism, and is the kind of quiet hard working kid that coaches and fans alike love. The question truly is can Gwacham make the leap from potential to productive.
There is this myth that the Saints don’t have any talent on defense, and that is simply ludicrous, they have a ton. What they have very little of is players who can prove that they are more than their potential and their measurables. Darius Heyward Bey is a very talented player, but he hasn’t been productive in this league. The Saints now find themselves in a position where a lot of the young talents on the roster must now step up and and become players for the team. Gwacham has all the ability in the world, and there is absolutely NO REASON he can’t become a double digit sack player in this league, but the gamble here is there is also no guarantee that he will ever live up to that potential. Or that Tull, or Edebali, or a number of other young players I’ll be covering over the next couple of days will ever reach their own lofty potentials.
The Bottom Line:
Here’s the simple and straight forward why: the Saints should not, cannot, and hopefully will not err on the side of caution this year. Taking a flyer on another broken down veteran doesn’t provide security, and gives them no greater chance of being ‘not terrible’ than simply playing one of their young talents. Here’s why you take the GAMBLE of betting on the player you have seen develop and who you have watched work their tail off the last year or more….they could become something special, but that will ONLY happen if they are given an opportunity to do so. The Saints have taken these gambles on offense, and it is time they trust themselves on the defensive side of the ball as well.
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