2007 Record: 16-0
Everything starts and pretty much ends with QB Tom Brady. The new record holder for TD passes in a season is the leader of the team, and as he falters, the rest of the team stumbles. Which isn’t good news considering there are some concerns regarding Brady’s health. He has another foot/ankle/leg/whatever injury, but he claims it isn’t the same one that “hampered” him in last year’s super bowl. An additional concern for coaches should be the state of Brady’s arm. 2007 saw Brady throw the second most pass attempts of his career (578). 2003, the year after throwing the most of his career (601 in 2002), saw a slight drop in production. The bottom line is the Patriots need Brady to be fully healthy and effective, because the players behind him on the depth chart shouldn’t even be playing in the AFL, not to mention the NFL.
Another question that remains to be answered is whether Bill Belichick will again use the ultimate running back-by-committee system he employed last season, despite selecting Laurence Maroney with the team’s 2006 first round pick. Now, while some point to the idea of the Pats taking Maroney simply as a way to screw over the Colts (yeah, that worked well), a first rounder is a first rounder – and Maroney is still an ultra talented one. Maroney gained 835 yards in only 13 games, while reaching the twenty carry mark only twice. I, for one, don’t understand it, and my bet is Sammy Morris (the main culprit, who had as many 20-carry games in the first six weeks before being injured), Kevin Faulk (a great receiver and blocker as a 3rd-down back), and former Raiders’ “starter” Lamont Jordan (who is currently fourth on the depth chart) will steal even more carries from Maroney as he wastes away on the sidelines. Even the fullbacks accounted for almost 70 carries last season.
Although it never used to be the case, the weapons around Brady were half the reason for his success last season, and that is especially true in the receiving corps. After taking three years off on bad teams, Randy Moss decided he finally wanted to play again, and the athlete with the most talent in the league showed just how dominant he can be when he actually puts forth some effort, setting a NFL record with 23 TD receptions. When the Patriots added Wes Welker to their roster (primarily for special teams purposes), they probably had no idea of his true value to their team. Welker blew his previous career numbers out of the water with 112 receptions, 1,175 yards, and 8 scores. Jabar Gaffney (450 yards, career high 5 TD’s), 2006 second rounder Chad Jackson (who was kept off the field last season), and 6’3″ Kelly Washington (also did not play last year) all provide great depth that can stretch the field. Ben Watson is a blossoming star at tight end. The problem remains, however, that there is so much talent on the field around him, that he is often the fourth or even fifth option on passing plays. Nevertheless, Watson remains a solid contributor with pro-bowl talent. Despite the abundance of talent at the position, this group worries, especially the starters, for these reasons – 1) Will Moss continue to give it his all if the team starts to struggle? and 2) Was Welker a fluke, and can he produce if teams deny the Patriots the one-step-drop dump pass where Welker gained a good chunk of his yards? We’ll find out soon.
The offensive line is solid enough to keep Brady on his feet. Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal all do their jobs very well. However, left tackle Nick Kaczur may be the weak link, which is trouble considering he must protect Brady’s blind side. Depth could be an issue if injury should arise.
While Brady may be the most important player on the team, the ultimate success of this year’s squad will rest with the defense. Key losses and aging have contributed to weaken this once very strong unit. However, these weaknesses do not reside up front, where the Pats boast one of the best lines in the league. The best, that is, if the ends return to their normal form. Veiled by the team’s historic run last year was Ty Warren’s significant drop in production. After recording 84 tackles and 7.5 sacks in ’06, Warren found the ball carrier a mere 54 times, including the QB only 4 times, last season. The biggest problem with Richard Seymour is staying healthy. The talented end has played in all 16 games only twice in seven years, and 2007 wasn’t one of them. If he can avoid the injury bug, he has the potential to reach double digit sacks. Jarvis Green provides solid depth outside after posting a career high in tackles (40) last year and recording 14 sacks the past two years in Seymour’s absence. The anchor in the middle is the ultra reliable and consistent Vince Wilfork. He may not put up huge numbers, but he is pivotal in shutting down the run game.
The age starts to show with the linebacking corps. However, for the criticism they receive, this group can still perform and is amazingly deep. Mike Vrabel (33 years old) is arguably the unit’s best player. Although he isn’t very flashy, Vrabel is consistent and always makes the right play. He had 77 tackles and a career high 12.5 sacks last season, finally earning a trip to the pro-bowl. He’s also durable, missing only three games in seven years with the team. On the other side, Adalius Thomas (31) is the exact opposite of Vrabel – an athletic freak who seems to be all over the field and can deliver the huge hit. However, Thomas appeared to lose some mystique after coming over from the Ravens last year. He had 79 tackles, but recorded only 6.5 sacks, his fewest since 2003. Making matters worse is a left arm injury which has forced him to miss most of the pre-season. Bringing youth and good speed to the outside positions are Michigan graduates Pierre Woods and third round pick Shawn Crable. If he makes the team, also keep an eye on 7th rounder Bo Ruud, a player from Nebraska in the “Mike Vrabel mold” – he’s always there to make the play.
Tedy Bruschi (35) is the leader of the defense. Another solid, reliable performer, Bruschi has lost a step the past couple years, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting up back-to-back 90+ tackle campaigns. However, he is slower to react, and does not make all the plays he once did. The youngest of the four starters, and possibly the weakest link (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing with this group), is another Michigan alum, Victor Hobson (28). Hobson comes over from the Jets after a disappointing ’07 which saw his tackles drop from 100 to 62, and also saw him post four fewer sacks than in 2006. Hobson may be pushed by first round pick Jerod Mayo, who can play both inside and out, and has the speed and athleticism to cover the whole field.
The real concerns lie in the secondary, where the team must replace starting corners Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. Fernando Bryant (31) comes over from Detroit to claim the number one spot after anchoring the Lions’ defense for four seasons. Ellis Hobbs finally gets a chance to start after posting a career high 64 tackles as the team’s nickel back, a role he has filled the last three years. However, neither player comes close to bringing the security that Samuel brought to the field every week. If either player should struggle, newcomers Lewis Sanders and Jason Webster will be ready to take over. However, Sanders really provides nothing more than a big presence (6’1″, 210), while Webster has missed 41 games the past 5 years, and hasn’t played a full season since 2002. Keep an eye on rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite, who may develop into solid nickel or dime corners in a few years.
Rodney Harrison (35) is the leader of the secondary from his safety position – at least he is when he’s on the field. Harrison has missed 23 games the last three years. However, when Harrison has played a full season in his career, he has posted no fewer than 117 tackles, including 141 in ’04. James Sanders starts opposite Harrison after a career high 70 tackles and 2 picks last season. However, he will be pushed by last year’s first round pick Brandon Meriweather. Unfortunately, all three players have been hampered by injuries (although supposedly minor) this pre-season. An interesting name to keep an ear out for is Tank Williams, who had a bad year with the Vikings after missing the 2006 season. Williams is being slotted as a backup at linebacker, but he had a career high 78 tackles with the Titans in ’05. If the secondary should struggle, it will be interesting to see what Bill Belichick does with the once up-and-coming safety. Stephen Gostkowski is a very accurate kicker who reminds some of Vinatieri, while the punting duties will go to one of two newcomers – either Chris Hanson or former pro-bowler Scott Player.
The pieces are all in place – a great head coach (love him or hate him), one of the best QB’s in the league who now has talent around him after proving he could do it without a great supporting cast, a solid O-line, a great D-line, depth at almost every position, and, finally, the league’s easiest schedule. The Patriot’s are primed for another perfect season, and may be even hungrier after losing the super bowl. However, there are major injury concerns on both sides of the ball, and the lack of speed and athleticism due to age on defense must be nullified. If anyone can find a solution, Bill Belichick can. The Patriots will probably have to play for real until about week 13 or 14 this year, but they should have no problem winning the division and making another playoff run.
John’s 2008 Prediction: 13-3
Ian’s 2008 Prediction: 14-2
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