Yesterday, Panthers General Manager Dale Tallon made his first move prior to the NHL Trade Deadline this upcoming Monday. He traded possession darling Sean Bergenheim and a 2016 7th round pick to the Minnesota Wild for a 2016 3rd round pick. The trade garnered mixed reviews from the community, however, it was a move that was inevitable whether you liked it or not.First of all, let’s be clear: there’s no denying that Sean Bergenheim is a great possession player. He had the best SAT% on the Panthers and has given up the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (Min. 500 TOI) play of any player in the entire league. Those are no small feats and should be applauded. However, there is more to a player than just possession stats.
It’s true that Bergenheim would be an asset to any playoff team (as the Panthers hope to be). On the Panthers, Bergenheim was a regular among the Panthers top six forwards, spending a lot of time with Aleksander Barkov and Brad Boyes. He had the 4th highest TOI/GP among FLA forwards at 5-on-5 play this season. That’s fine and dandy but the problem with this is that Bergenheim doesn’t have a history of great production, despite his superior possession stats. He has never cracked 30 points in his 9 seasons in the NHL and has a career average 0.37 points per game. That amounts to about 30 points over an 82 game season. In Bergenheim’s defense though, he has been scoring at 0.46 this season (and 0.47 last season), which are both better than his career average and represent career highs. This would make him a near 40 point player over an 82 game season. That is assuming he would even come close to playing a full season and therein lies the rub.
In his 9 seasons in the NHL, Bergenheim has never played a full 82 game campaign. In fact, he has only broken the 70 game plateau twice, with 78 games for the New York Islanders in 2007-08 and 80 games in 2010-11 for the Tampa Bay Lightning. His highest amount of games in a season beyond that was 63 for the Islanders in 2009-10. The most he’s played in a season for the Panthers is 62 in both 2011-12 & 2013-14. Those seasons sandwich the lockout shortened 2012-13, in which Bergenheim missed all 48 games with a hip injury. Last season, he missed 10 games to start the season. This season, he missed another 10 games with a lower body injury in November. That’s just in the last three seasons. With his lengthy injury history, there are very serious questions about his durability. That also hurts his ability to be a meaningful, every day top six forward. It’s important to note though, that Bergenheim does have somewhat of a reputation as being a strong playoff performer. In 2010-2011, Bergenheim played 16 playoff games with the Lightning, scoring 9 goals (off a red-hot 19.6 sh%) and 2 assists, for a total of 11 points. A season later, Bergenheim had 3 goals and 3 assists for a total of 6 points in 7 playoff games.
So, let us summarize the profile of Sean Bergenheim: he is a 31 year old forward, with great possession metrics, a decent production rate during the regular season, an impressive performance spike in the playoffs, and a substantial injury history. He is a player that can provide valuable depth to a playoff team but is likely not a great option for an every day top six forward because of the likelihood he may miss significant time due to an injury.
The question now is what did other players of a similar age and statistical profile fetch in a trade? The best example is another Dale Tallon trade, this one from last season when he dealt Marcel Goc to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Another player, age 30, with good possession metrics (52.8 SAT% at the time of the trade), similar production (18 points, just like Bergenheim), and with some time lost to injury (was in the midst of just his 4th 70+ game season out of 9). Tallon was able to get a 3rd and 5th round pick for Goc in that trade. There are other comparisons as well, with players going for a larger return. There’s Ryane Clowe in 2012-13, a player of lesser production at the time but decent possession, waiving his no-trade clause and going from San Jose to the New York Rangers for three draft picks (a 2nd round pick in 2013, a 3rd round pick from the Panthers (ha!) in 2013, and a conditional second-round selection in 2014). There is Tuomo Ruutu last season, with slightly better production, going from Carolina to New Jersey last season for Andrei Loktionov and a conditional pick. There’s also Chris Kelly going from Ottawa to Boston for a 2nd round pick in 2011. Is it feasible that Tallon could have gotten more than a 3rd for Bergenheim? Maybe, but the biggest mitigating factor is likely the injury history. Bergenheim may produce at a rate good enough to garner those higher returns, but no one wants to pay that for a guy who has a history of getting hurt often.
What about keeping Bergenheim? That was a non-starter. The man asked for a trade, in the middle of a playoff race. We don’t know the full story from the outside but it seems pretty clear that he did not want any part of being a Panther anymore for whatever reason. You can’t make a person want to stay if they don’t want to. Also, keep in mind that he is on the wrong side of 30 with a team trending towards youth. It’s not just about doing what’s best for this season, it is also about doing what’s right two-to-three years down the road as well. Is Sean Bergenheim, at 32-33 with his history of injury, still a major contributor on this team in a couple of years from now when they should be a legit contender? Not likely. Is the ice time a young player would get in Bergenheim’s place now instrumental in their development? Definitely. This is all by design. Soon, many of the other vets will fall away, one by one, to be replaced by young players who have been seasoned in the minors and are ready to contend in the NHL. Those are the players who will lead this team places, not veteran stop gaps like Bergenheim.
That’s not to say that Bergenheim should be maligned. He is still a good player and will no doubt be a boon to the Minnesota Wild’s playoff push, should he remain healthy. I personally enjoyed watching him and wish him all the best on his journey.
Make no mistake, this was inevitable and it’s for the best. The first domino has fallen.
AJ can be reached for contact on Twitter.
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