Hit The Ice:
After the struggles the Panthers have gone through over the last month and a half, the Panthers finally broke through this weekend. After dispatching the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday, the Panthers followed up by tagging the Tampa Bay Lightning with their first loss in Sunrise in over three years. Now, the Panthers welcome in another lowly team, in the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Panthers snatched victory from the Leafs a few weeks ago but got out attempted in shots by a decent margin, so they will need a better effort this time around. Can the Panthers make it their second 3+ game win streak this season? On to the game!
Know Your Enemy:
Panthers All-Time Record v. Toronto: 29-28-5 with 7 ties
All-Time Record v. Toronto at Home: 16-13-2 with 5 ties
2014-15 Season Record v. Toronto: 2-0-0
Last Game: 2/17/15 @ Air Canada Centre (Toronto, ON), Panthers won 3-2
The last game against the Maple Leafs was a rarity: it was the Leafs who dominated the possession game for once. The Leafs managed to out attempt the Panthers, gaining a 35-27 SAT advantage in their February 17 tilt. It was the first time since December 17, 2013 that the Leafs had achieved that against the Panthers. However, that has not carried over to the five games the Leafs have played since that night. Their score adjusted SAT% over the last five games sits at a mediocre 46.8%, and they have collected a 2-3-0 record. Essentially, its the same old song and dance in Toronto: a team that is consistently out attempted and out chanced game in and game out, and comes away with a losing effort more often than not. Not a whole lot has changed. Most of what has changed though is personnel at the trade deadline. Ex-Panther Olli Jokinen, who made his Leafs debut against the Panthers on February 17, is already gone, shipped off for forward Joakim Lindstrom and a conditional 6th round pick. Gone as well is defenseman Korbinian Holzer, whisked away to the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Eric Brewer and a 5th round pick in 2016. Prior to the deadline, the Leafs also unloaded forward Daniel Winnik to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Zach Sill and two draft picks. Most notably gone though is one David Clarkson. After all the consternation and guffawing at his contract, both in and outside of Toronto, the Leafs managed to find a taker for his albatross of a contract, sending him south to Columbus, in exchange for the dead contract of Nathan Horton, who appears unlikely to ever play again in the NHL. This is a team that has embraced the tank, and the full rebuild.
The Rundown:
Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (22)
Assists: Jussi Jokinen (28)
Points: Nick Bjugstad (37)
SAT Relative: Brian Campbell (+4.4%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Brian Campbell (+6.4%)
Power Play: 15.5% (30 for 194, T-26th)
Penalty Kill: 79.9%% (159 for 199, 23rd)
Maple Leafs Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Phil Kessel (23)
Assists: Phil Kessel (27)
Points: Phil Kessel (50)
SAT Relative: Nazem Kadri (+5.7%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Nazem Kadri (+4.5%)
Power Play: 18.1% (39 for 215, T-14th)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (165 for 202, 14th)
*SAT and Scoring Chances calculated at 5v5, having played at least one half of team’s games.
The Hat Trick:
Milestone Watch: Sunday night’s game was one of historic proportions for at least 2 players. Jaromir Jagr opened scoring in the game with his 717th career goal, tying him for 5th place all-time with Phil Esposito. Then Brad Boyes notched the 200th goal of his career in the second period. Are there other milestones on the horizon for the Panthers? Of course there are! Obviously with his next goal, Jagr will pass Esposito and take 5th all-time in goals outright. However, that’s not all for the 43 year old forward. He would pass Marcel Dionne for 4th all-time with 15 more goals, and would pass Brett Hull for 3rd all-time with 25 more goals. Should Jagr play in all 19 remaining games, he will pass Hall of Famers Johnny Bucyk (1540) and Alex Delvecchio (1549) in games played with 1551 for 11th all time, just 13 games shy of Nicklas Lidstrom for 10th all-time. He also currently sits just 14 points short of the 1800 point mark, which only three players have reached in the history of the game: Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, and Gordie Howe. It would be good enough to pass Ron Francis (1798) for 4th all-time in points. Its not all about Jagr though. Roberto Luongo is fast approaching 400 wins as a goaltender, a mark only attained by ten goaltenders in the history of the NHL. Six more wins will vault him past Chris Osgood for 10th all-time in wins. Six more wins beyond that will vault him past two notable names in hockey history: Grant Fuhr and Glenn Hall. Eight more games played will also put Luongo 10th all-time in games played, sliding past Gump Worsley. Dave Bolland is just four points shy of 200 for his career. Lastly, Jonathan Huberdeau is poised to be the first of the Panthers young core players to reach 100 points, as he currently sits with 95 points in his young career.
Give Me Your Lunch Money: The Panthers have had a good go of it against the Maple Leafs over the last four years. In their last 14 games against Toronto, dating back to March 17, 2011, the Panthers are 10-4-0 with no overtime games, have scored three or more goals in 11 of those games (including the last six consecutive games), and have put 30+ shots on the Toronto net in seven of the last nine games. The Panthers also have a SAT% of 55.9% over those 14 games. Since the beginning of the 2012-13 season, the Panthers have out attempted the Leafs by an average of 12 per game. Needless to say, the Panthers have been dominant over the Maple Leafs in the recent past.
Division Beware: Though the Panthers may be fighting for their playoff lives, one thing is certain: they aren’t losing too many points within their own division. At 11-3-4, the Panthers have 26 points within the division, second only to Montreal’s 13-6-2 record at 28 points. The Panthers will need this to continue to be true if they hope to make the playoffs. 12 of the Panthers final 19 games are against Atlantic Division foes, including three games against the Boston Bruins, who they are directly competing with for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Projected Lineup:
Florida Panthers
L1: Huberdeau | Barkov | Jagr
L2: Jokinen | Bjugstad | Boyes
L3: Pirri | Trocheck | Hayes
L4: Upshall | MacKenzie | Thornton
D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Kulikov | Gudbranson
D3: Kampfer | Petrovic
SG: Montoya
BG: Luongo
Toronto Maple Leafs
L1: van Riemsdyk | Bozak | Kessel
L2: Lupul | Kadri | Panik
L3: Komarov | Holland | Booth
L4: Sill | Smith | Kozun
D1: Phaneuf | Polak
D2: Rielly | Granberg
D3: Gardiner | Robidas
SG: Bernier
BG: Reimer
Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)
Closing Thoughts:
The only thing better than the Leafs tanking will be the reaction when they don’t win the draft lottery and miss out on McEichel.
AJ can be reached for contact on Twitter.
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