At last, we’ve reached our conclusion. Matthew O’Brien of Whyhockey delivers his final entry of “Under the Scope”, a three-part series that projects the Florida Panthers going forward. If you’ve missed the previous two entries, make sure to check them out here (Part 1 & Part 2).
Behind The Bench
The men behind the bench for the Florida Panthers this year are largely the same as last season, with the exception of Mark Morris. Morris left, to little media fanfare, in favor of a head coaching job for the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. In fact, if I weren’t starving for Panthers news in the offseason, I may have never stumbled upon this story. Though his impact cannot be completely quantified, you have to believe Morris was a big reason for the drastic improvement of team defense last season. It will be interesting to see how his departure affects the team moving forward.
Granted, some credit for the improved defense must go to the players – they are the ones going out there every night making it happen. There’s little doubt that a full year of Roberto Luongo in goal, the sensational rookie year of Aaron Ekblad, the calming veteran presence of Willie Mitchell, and the continued two way development of Dmitry Kulikov all played a huge part in the Panthers rise back to respectability in their own zone.
However, that’s not to take all the credit away from Morris. Someone had to be responsible for deploying the defense in situations where they would be successful and Morris did a great job with that. While Ekblad saw some pretty tough matchups for a rookie, it was tilted towards the offensive side of the ice, which was nothing that he couldn’t handle. When Mitchell looked like he began to lose a step as the season wore on, Morris adjusted to give him slightly easier minutes that were less taxing. The philosophy of the defense as a whole also changed, which must be credited to a new coaching staff and Morris.
[table id=3 /]In seasons past, the Panthers looked very uncomfortable in their own end, resulting in lines getting hemmed in for an extended shift. They liked to chase the puck all over the zone, abandoning their positions and making it easy for opponents to sneak into space in high quality scoring areas. Those mistakes continued over a year usually leads to a lot of goals against. Last year they seemed to better understand their individual roles in the defensive zone. When teams would work the puck on the outside or behind the net, the Panthers were much more conservative with their jumps, which led to more protection in front of the net in the danger zones. This not only cut down on primary scoring opportunities for opponents but also on secondary chances from rebounds.
As of yet, there has been no announcement of a replacement to run the defense, though that shouldn’t result in much of a problem or decreased effectiveness. The Panthers still have three very capable hockey minds behind the bench that should help them see continued improvement on the back end.
The rest of the coaching staff remains the same. Gerard Gallant and Mike Kelly return for their second seasons behind the Panthers bench. The hope is that the success they shared together in St. John of the QMJHL will translate to the NHL, where they were perennially near the top of the league and competing not just for the QMJHL championship but the Memorial Cup as well. Kelly also has a background in strength and conditioning, serving as the interim strength coach for the Vancouver Canucks for the final few months of the 2002 season. With Kelly, current strength and conditioning coach Tommy Powers, and well respected skating coach Paul Vincent, the Panthers should be one of the better teams in terms of skating and conditioning moving forward. One thing to look for this year is how much more Kelly can get out of the offense, which though slightly improved from years before needs to be much more productive if the Panthers want to make good on their promise of making the playoffs this season.
That brings us to the man in charge, Gerard Gallant. Gallant enjoyed a relatively successful first season as head coach of the Florida Panthers. He led the team to a 25 point improvement in the standings, the most of any team this past season, and hopes to continue that upward trajectory. There was some concern upon his hiring that his inexperience would continue the Panthers trend of futility, but those doubts and fears should be assuaged, at least slightly, moving forward.
The main complaint lodged toward Gallant and his staff last year, mostly by us here at WhyHockey, was that he was slow to adapt and change his game plan when it was clear it was not working. There is no better evidence to this than the powerplay. Until the All-Star break, the Panthers ran the same powerplay over and over again to little or no avail. It was frustrating to watch. They kept expecting different results despite changing nothing. Finally, after the break, we began to see changes to the powerplay which in turn brought success (More on the powerplay woes here). The Panthers may have been a playoff team last year had they made this change earlier but as the saying goes, better late than never.
Similarly, it drove us mad when Brad Boyes or Tomas Fleischmann would continually see top six minutes on forward despite being ineffective at times in a top line role. We will give Gallant some leniency here though. He was just trying to make the most out of what was given to him. This year should hopefully be different. The Panthers are no longer saddled with large, expensive contracts for unproductive players, and the influx of young talent that should crack the lineup this year should lend for much more flexibility for Gallant to tweak and shuffle as necessary.
This years roster should provide Gallant with the skill and depth to play to his philosophy. It was easy to see last year that Gallant likes to roll four offensive lines, spreading ice time out relatively even throughout the roster. Problems arose from this last year because there simply was not the depth, particularly in the bottom six, as there should be this season. Gone are the unproductive Brad Boyes, Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall, and Tomas Kopecky. Also gone, is the streaky Jimmy Hayes, who would string together a few solid games in a row before disappearing completely (until the few games after he returns from being scratched. Then, rinse and repeat).
In their stead, you should see a full season in the NHL from Vincent Trocheck in what could be a make-or-break year for the young forward. Rocco Grimaldi should also begin his rookie season with the Panthers, and Reilly Smith (acquired in a trade for Jimmy Hayes), will provide solid playmaking depth up front. Though it was a quieter offseason from Dale Tallon than what we’re used to, he did go out and give Gallant the chance to ice the kind of roster he wants. With that, it’s time to look into the systems the Panthers will deploy in order to make the most of their lineup.
Coaching Philosophy
If last year was any indication, expect the Panthers to want to play a quick, physically imposing game. They have a ton of big bodies up front and on the blue line, but the physical play doesn’t just have to be big hits by these players. Even the smaller player like Trocheck and Grimaldi can play physical, as they can use their willingness to get to pucks first to take advantage of their leverage and low center of gravity. It’s the little bumps throughout a game that really wear an opponent down as the game goes on. When players know they will be hit every time they touch the puck, it makes the game a lot less fun for them. Combine this physical play with speed and it’s a frightening style of play. By quickly closing down gaps, the Panthers can force their opponent to make plays they would rather not make. This game plan was largely successful for the Panthers last year but now they have the right players throughout their lineup to make it that much more dangerous.
In order for the offense to improve, every line needs to be able to play the same type of game as the first line. Barkov, Huberdeau, and Jagr showed us last year the type of offensive game the Panthers want to play on all four lines. The goal is to get the puck into the zone with possession and set up down low. If possession across the blue line is not possible, they look for the smart dumps that allow the forecheck to get in and create pressure. The goal is to create board battles especially below the goal line and force turnovers low in the zone.
Many times last year, the Barkov line would have three forwards low in the zone (below the hashmarks), which is a risky game plan. They can get away with it, however, thanks to the much improved play of the defense. Panthers forwards no longer feel like they have to bail out their defensemen, which frees them up to be more aggressive and creative on offense. This offensive philosophy is predicated on quick puck movement and jumping into open ice. A system that is extremely effective off the boards and the cycle with defenders caught flat footed or going the wrong way. By adding players with speed and high hockey IQ over the last few years, the Panthers have set themselves up nicely to have success with this style of play.
Special Team Struggles
At even strength, the Panthers were probably good enough to be a playoff team last year. The major reason why they failed to qualify for the postseason yet again was the play of their special teams. While the powerplay finished the year on a roll, the improvement got them to only a 16% efficiency. This was a major improvement from the previous year, as they had one of the worst powerplays in the history of hockey in ‘13-’14, capitalizing on just 10% of chances. This aspect needs to continue to improve if the Panthers want to get back into the playoffs. It is expected the Panthers will start the season with the four forwards + one defenseman set up they began running after the All-Star break last year. Expect to see Jagr, Barkov, Huberdeau, Bjugstad and Ekblad on the first unit, with Trocheck, Smith, Pirri, Jokinen and Campbell on the second. Having two strong units allows the first unit players to get more rest, not having to take the lion’s share of the powerplay time. There is certainly a ton of firepower on both units and a full season with this setup should help further improve the powerplay and get it back to league average and better.
The Panthers have finished 24th and 30th, in the last two seasons on the penalty kill as well, another area that needs to improve. Without players like Upshall and Kopecky, who saw a ton of shorthanded minutes those years, it will be interesting to see who Gallant tabs for this responsibility. One player I think needs to see more time on the kill is Aleksander Barkov. Barkov is the most defensively aware center the Panthers have and has one of the most active defensive sticks. Giving him time on the kill may affect his even strength ice time but that’s a trade off you may have to live with if you want to see improvement.
The point of having a deep forward group that has little-to-no drop off across the four lines is to be able to use your better players in situations where it is required. If Barkov doesn’t have to play as many even strength minutes because of the offensive depth, it frees him up to be used in special teams situations. If Barkov does see time on the penalty killing units this year, expect his partner to be a player like Jussi Jokinen, another competent defensive forward. The other unit should consist of MacKenzie and Bolland but forwards like Trocheck and Smith could see time as well.
Conclusion
This is a crucial year for the Panthers. It marks the sixth season since Dale Tallon has taken over as General Manager, meaning that his five year blueprint to get this club back to its former glory has reached it’s expiration and fans may start to get impatient if results aren’t seen. As unfair as it may be to Tallon and his coaching staff, changes could be made by ownership should they falter and fail to reach the playoffs. The development of their core group of youngsters and the assembly of the roster made through trades and free agents have given the Panthers their best team on paper in years. It is time to take the next step towards fulfilling the promise of ownership to bring the Stanley Cup to South Florida. It falls on Tallon and Gallant to construct a roster that will help the Panthers reach this goal but they cannot do it all themselves.
The players must also take on that responsibility and buy into the system and team philosophies. There should be no complaints about ice time and the ability for Gallant to roll four lines means there should be no excuse for not giving 100% every shift, every game. Fortunately for the Panthers, they finally have enough quality players in their system to play the twenty best, hardest working players. They have the ability to plug in players throughout their system who are willing to play the game how it needs to be played in order to win without sacrificing much skill or talent. This internal competition could be the major driving force behind the Panthers success. If a player is not doing what’s being asked of him, the Panthers have the flexibility to replace him. It remains to be seen, however, how quickly Gallant will make changes. While patience is necessary, waiting too long to make changes – such as with the powerplay last season – could cost the Panthers valuable points that come back to bite them at the end of the year.
The revolving door of coaches in South Florida over the last few seasons could end with Gallant if he can get his players to buy into his system and get back to the playoffs. If not, and the Panthers falter yet again, there could be yet another new staff behind the bench this time next year.
Whyhockey can be reached for contact on Twitter.
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