With the start of Major League Soccer’s 20th season now less than a month away and no signs of a CBA getting done, a strike looks imminent. Many fans across the country have shifted their thinking from “will there be a strike?” to “what will happen when there is a strike?” As with any sport, a strike will have both immediate and long term impacts.
If there is indeed a work stoppage and games are missed, the first big question will be, “how long does it last?” If the first weekend of the season is missed, that’s a big difference in half the season being lost. I’m going to look at this as though there is a short strike (1-4 weeks).
The immediate impact of a strike would be felt at the box office. There are already a number of MLS teams who struggle with attendance. It will take some time for the casual fans to come back. Teams like Portland, Seattle, Kansas City likely won’t see much of a decrease in attendance. The expansion franchises will surely be hit hard in attendance. Orlando City has launched their #FillTheBowl campaign for their March 8th match against New York City FC, an effort to fill up the Citrus Bowl for their inaugural game. Missing the first weekend would delay this match and cause a number of ticket holders to think twice about buying in to their new team in future games. The same can be said about NYCFC’s first game at Yankee Stadium.
As for the players, they won’t get a paycheck for as long as they’re on strike. For the stars and designated players, this won’t be a problem. For those guys struggling just to pay rent and make ends meet, there’s definitely a problem. Up to this point, the players have been very united and have stood firm in stating their willingness to strike. Will that change when their friends and teammates are unable to pay their electric bills? Only time will tell. If the players want to make a statement and strike the first weekend of games before reaching some compromises with the owners, they may not accomplish all they want in this CBA but they will leave their livelihoods relatively unscathed.
I have said a few times on our Roundtable that unlike most work stoppages in the other major North American sports, it seems a majority of MLS fans are siding with the players in this dispute. Both sides usually come out looking bad in labor disputes but the fans relate with the MLS players. The majority of them don’t make millions of dollars a year. What the players are asking for seems almost a given in the fans’ eyes. The fact that there is no free agency has most fans already scratching their heads.
When will the owners “give in”? Sadly, they will react when they start to see their check book taking a hit. But can we blame them? Unfortunately, a lot of owners see their team as a business. When there are no sales from tickets, merchandise, concessions, and it begins to affect their daily business, the owners will be more willing to compromise with the players.
Will a strike affect all the built up buzz around soccer in the US and Canada? Surprisingly, I don’t think it will too much. Fans who tune in for the World Cup because it’s the World Cup probably don’t watch MLS to begin with. Sports fans who already turn their nose up at soccer will continue to do so. There will probably be a chunk of MLS fans who will sell their season tickets and not return to stadiums but I would expect that number to be very low. Because the fans are so much behind the players, when they get back on the field, most will go watch them or tune in and watch them. Even if that means they are lining the owners’ pockets with more money.
Where do we go from here? It’s just a waiting game at this point. Hope for the best but expect the worst is probably the mindset of many at this point. Will the entire season be lost? No chance. Like I said earlier, a few weeks is definitely a possibility. I can’t see it going much longer than that. With this being such a big season for the league in terms of it being an anniversary, two new franchises, a huge TV deal both sides will want to be on the field. The networks will want them on the field. Most importantly, the fans want them on the field. But the fans want them on the field with a fair CBA behind them. Which side will give in? Will it happen before March 6? If lawyers get involved, likely so. Right now, we wait. We pay our MLS Live renewal and wait. To borrow a basketball phrase, the ball is completely out of our court.
(image courtesy of Jeff Couper/TheCrew.com)
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