As hard as it is to believe, we’re already seven games deep into the 2014 college football season, and it seems like it was just yesterday that things were starting up and expectations for this group of South Florida Bulls were cautiously optimistic.
After seven games, we know quite a bit about this USF outfit: an overmatched underdog in most cases, the Bulls are doing just enough to stick around against tougher opponents. They’ve managed to squeak out a trio of wins, one more than their total all of last season, and are looking to collect three more to get them back to bowl season.
With five games left on the slate, we’re going to take a look at those matchups and see where USF will land come December.
10/24 at Cincinnati
On paper, this could be a fun one. The Bearcats are 12th in the nation through the air, averaging 322 yards per game and are also putting up nearly 35 points per game. They can’t run the ball all that well, but that one dimension to their offense has worked pretty well. USF’s young, but talented secondary survived the blitzkrieg that is ECU’s passing game, so they obviously have the ability to rise to the challenge.
Cincinnati’s defense, meanwhile, is abhorrent. It gives up more points per game than it scores and before beating up on SMU 41-3 on Saturday, had been shelled in three straight outings to the tune of 146 points over that span. The Bull’s offense is stagnant at best, but against this Cincy outfit, they could get just enough of a spark going to win.
Riding high after a tight win over Tulsa, look for the Bulls to come out running hard and try to pound that Bearcat defense into submission with Marlon Mack and the running game. If Mike White can be even competent and the secondary can play as well as they did against Maryland and ECU, the Bulls should walk away victorious.
11/1 vs. Houston
There was a time where the Cougars were associated with a high-octane offense. That isn’t the case these days, as Houston leans heavily on its 11th-ranked scoring defense (17.9 points per game). 23rd in total defense, Houston recovered from an opening-week stumble against UTSA to win four of their last six and give No. 25 BYU a run for its money.
It’ll be a tough day for the Bulls on offense, but their defense could be up for the task against this Cougar offense. They’ve recently made the change at quarterback from the inconsistent, inaccurate John O’Korn to Greg Ward, Jr., who has stepped in to complete 70.4 percent of his passes and looked sharp last week. He’s also a threat on the ground with 192 yards to date. The Bulls are still vulnerable against the run and a mobile quarterback could be their downfall.
An improving passing attack coupled with a very good Cougar defense should give Houston the road win in south Florida, leaving the Bulls 4-5 and in a tough spot heading into the final three games.
11/15 at SMU
It’s been a pretty tough, miserable year for the Mustangs. It started with a 45-0 beat down at the hands of Baylor and it hasn’t gotten much easier since. The offense has been nowhere to be found, averaging just 6.5 points per game. They’ve been shut out twice and only topped six points once (they somehow exploded for 24 in a loss to ECU). With the athleticism on the Bulls defense, this should be a welcome site for USF.
Unfortunately for SMU, it’s not any better defensively. Surrendering 48 points per game, the Mustangs are also 128th in the country in that category. They gave up a season-low 41 points last week (and lost, obviously) and have had 55-plus dropped on them twice. The Bulls are nowhere near high-octane, but if White can’t get his game together against SMU, he won’t ever put it together.
This should be a relatively easy romp for the Bulls on the road, putting them one win away from bowl eligibility.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0QkdH6IiJc?list=UU2hUZIkGfPjlJy8-P0MJjYA]11/22 at Memphis
The Tigers might be flying under the radar a bit in the AAC, but they’re a tough out for sure. They took UCLA to the limit before dropping a 42-35 decision while holding Ole Miss to 24 points in a 24-3 loss (Ole Miss is only No. 3 in the country right now). They have a big win over Cincy and a close loss to Houston on their conference resume. They’re capable of anything, really.
Memphis’ defense runs the show, allowing just under 21 points per game, but its offense is quietly dangerous. Quarterback Paxton Lynch is completing almost 64 percent of his passes and has over 1,400 yards to his name. The rushing attack, meanwhile, doesn’t have one home-run hitter, but they do have several reliable backs. Look for Memphis to pound the interior of the Bulls’ defense with its three-headed (and sometimes four or five-headed) rushing attack.
On the other side of the ball, it might be tough sledding for USF. The Tigers run defense is 35th in the country and the strength of the outfit and we all know what happens when the game is on the arm of Mike White. Look for this to be a low-scoring, physical game with Memphis pulling it out late.
11/28 vs. UCF
This one is for all the marbles. Rivalry bragging rights and a potential bowl game on the line for the Bulls here.
Currently tied for the conference lead, UCF might need this one heading into the end of the season showdown with ECU. This is important across the board and a fitting end to the year for the Bulls.
With Blake Bortles off to the NFL, the Knights’ offense has struggled to find consistency, but the 19th-ranked defense has been getting the job done. Their only two losses come to Penn State on a last-second field goal in the opener and a beating at the hands of then-No. 20 Missouri in Week 2. Other than that, it’s been tough, grind-it-out victories including an overtime win over BYU.
With the Bulls’ struggles on offense, expect this one to be a slugfest at Raymond James’ Stadium with the Knights doing just enough to crush the dreams of the Bulls, sending them home with a losing record and no bowl game.
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