Refuse to Rebuild

In the standard model for a franchise, after multiple years of success and your core players moving past their prime, there comes a stage of blowing everything up and rebuilding for future success. Phillies owner Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t seem to believe in this stage of the process and for that reason, there is much speculation that this could be his final year in the city of brotherly love.

Did you know that the Phillies have nine players on their roster born in the 1970’s? The entire National League East has seven.  That being said, I think it is safe to say the Phillies arrow is clearly pointed downward, while the rest of the division is looking up. The fountain of youth has dried up in Philadelphia and it’s been dry for quite a while now.

This Phillies team is stocked full of players that were stars once upon a time. The only problem is this isn’t a video game, age plays a huge role with ball clubs over a grueling 162 game season. They will go as far as their health takes them. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies infield features three players over the age of 34. The wild card will be 23-year-old Cody Asche who will be replacing the recently retired Michael Young. Both Asche and First Baseman Darin Ruf got significant playing time last year and showed glimpses of being solid pieces of the puzzle. Unfortunately, since Ryan Howard looks like he is here to stay with his 125 million dollar contract, Ruf will likely start the year in the minors.

In 2013, the Phillies struggled mightily on offense. They scored a measly 610 runs, tied with the dismal Astros for 27^th in the majors. Things don’t look like they’ll improve all that much for 2014. 26-year-old Dom Brown was one of their few weapons in the lineup last year with a team leading 27 homers and an appearance in the Home Run Derby. However, it is very easy to pitch around someone like that and win games if the supporting cast can be mowed down routinely.

With the exception of Roy Halladay retiring, the offseason consisted of signing more aging veteran to this already ancient squad. Catcher Carlos ‘Chooch’ Ruiz received a three-year extension after following up his career year with a very sub par season. They also added Marlon Byrd to start beside Ben Revere and Dom Brown in the outfield. He is coming off a big power year, but is still 36 years old nonetheless. They also signed Roberto Hernandez and AJ Burnett to add to their top-heavy pitching staff. Burnett is coming off of a career year with Pirates in which he logged his lowest ERA ever, but is still 37 years old nonetheless.

With Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels as the two horses at the top of the rotation and 4 time all star (but recently inconsistent) Jonathon Papelbon anchoring down the back end, this team also has many question marks when it comes to pitching. The issue is beyond the aces. Phillies starters posted a 5.41 ERA in the 98 games not started last season by Hamels or Lee. They averaged a shade less than 5 1/3 innings per start (the league average was 6 innings per start). The staff’s 4.41 ERA ranked 25th in baseball.

All that being said, Major League Baseball has an underdog that makes a run at the title every year. Typically, we love the underdog when they are young and when they are cheap. Many fans fall in love with small markets like the A’s or Rays with youthful, energetic squads. The fightin Phils are not youthful by any stretch of the imagination, but they are grinders and will tough it out. Experience goes a long way in a long season and there is a good portion of this team who have been to the promise land.  In Vegas the Phillies have a 5.3 percent chance of winning the NL East, and a 6.7 percent chance of winning the wild card. It definitely is a long shot, but that’s why they play all 162 games. Crazier things have happened in baseball.